164
FXUS63 KGID 261133
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
533 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED AREAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO
1/2 TO 1/4 MILE. USE CAUTION IF DRIVING.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- COLDER WITH SNOW ON SUNDAY. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH
REGARDS TO AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF SNOWFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY
WESTERLY WINDS SO ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY WIDESPREAD. THE AREAS CURRENTLY WITH THE HEAVIEST FOG HAVE CALM
WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S TO
LOW 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID/UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE TRI-
CITIES AREA FROM DAWSON COUNTY SOUTH TO FURNAS COUNTY WITH HUMIDITY
DOWN TO AROUND 20% AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER EAST OF THIS AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH
CLEAR SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY
RANGING FROM AROUND 15% TO 25% AREAWIDE. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
GET UP TO AROUND 15 MPH TO NEAR 25 MPH OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTH.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASE.
STILL EXPECTING WINTRY PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW)
BEGINNING SUNDAY. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING WHERE AND HOW
MUCH SNOW MAY FALL ON SUNDAY. VARIOUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO CHANGE FROM MOSTLY SNOW (MONDAY MORNING) TO MOSTLY RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
COMMENTS:
- IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM (LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING),
JUST IN THE LAST 8 HOURS WE'VE GONE FROM HAVING NO
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST (ALTHOUGH THIS WAS
DISCUSSED AS A POSSIBILITY IN THIS PRODUCT OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS), TO NOW NOT ONLY INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT
ALSO HAVING SPC ASSIGN AN OFFICIAL MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) OF SEVERE TO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES (FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG/MARGINALLY-SEVERE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH).
- ALTHOUGH STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND CARRYING THE USUAL HIGHER-END
OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, IF ANYTHING LATEST MODELS HAVE
TRENDED MORE SUGGESTIVE VERSUS 48 HOURS AGO (THIS FORECASTER'S
LAST SHIFT) THAT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-MONDAY COULD FEATURE AT
LEAST MINOR/LIMITED IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH
THE OVERALL HIGHEST CHANCES (POPS) CURRENTLY FOCUSED SUNDAY
DAYTIME. FOR NOW, WE'VE INTENTIONALLY KEPT ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW, BUT MIXED TYPES (SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN) CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. IT'S CERTAINLY TOO
EARLY TO HIT THE PROVERBIAL "PANIC BUTTON", BUT WITH SUNDAY
NOW ONLY 4 DAYS OUT WE DECIDED THAT INTRODUCING THIS
POSSIBILITY TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) SEEMED
WARRANTED.
- AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
AT LEAST FOR NOW IT APPEARS WE SHOULD "ESCAPE" ANY OUTRIGHT-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS THAT WOULD NECESSITATE WARNING ISSUANCE.
THAT BEING SAID, THE POTENTIAL FOR 25+ MPH GUSTS HAS INCREASED
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY NORTH OF I-80), BUT FORTUNATELY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
OUR CRITICAL 20% THRESHOLD (THIS BEARS CLOSE WATCHING THOUGH).
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RH IS MORE LIKELY TO DROP INTO CRITICAL
TERRITORY (15-20%), BUT THANKFULLY WIND SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS RH FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO LONG STORY
SHORT: RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT FORECASTING THE NECESSARY OVERLAP
OF BOTH WIND GUSTS 25+ MPH AND RH AT/BELOW 20% TO MEET OUTRIGHT-
CRITICAL PARAMETERS.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH WED. MARCH 4):
- TODAY'S/CURRENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
TODAY'S FORECAST HAS ENDED UP BEING A LITTLE "TRICKIER THAN
MEETS THE EYE", BOTH IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT
ALSO WIND/TEMPERATURES. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CONFIRM THAT A FAST-MOVING/LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH OUR REGION. AS WAS EXPECTED, THIS
DISTURBANCE IS DRIVING AN AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT IS
JUST NOW STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN FRINGES OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, ALONG WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL END UP VARYING/RANGING A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
CWA AS A WHOLE. WHILE SOUTHERLY BREEZES HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS
WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWESTERN
3/4THS OF OUR CWA (EVEN FLIRTING WITH 70 IN ROOKS COUNTY KS), A
MORE STUBBORN/EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER IS HOLDING SEVERAL OF OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST COUNTIES
DOWN IN THE 40S (SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST).
- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT):
BY FAR THE MAIN STORY ARE THE INCOMING SHOWERS/SPOTTY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN NOW AND MAINLY 9-10 PM SCATTERED TO
LOCALIZED MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL STEADILY TRACK ACROSS
OUR CWA FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NON-SEVERE...AND BRING MEAGER
BUT NEEDED RAINFALL UP TO AROUND 0.10" IN SOME PLACES...THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (AS MUCH AS 100-200 J/KG) IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT ANY SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SPOTTY WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50-60 MPH. WHILE SPC OFFICIALLY CONFINED THEIR MARGINAL
RISK OF SPOTTY SEVERE WINDS TO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA, HERE LOCALLY
WE FEEL THIS RISK COULD EXTEND FARTHER EAST-
SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. FOR WHAT
IT'S WORTH, THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEVERAL MEASURED GUSTS OF
50-60+ MPH JUST TO OUR WEST OVER WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NE
(ALONG WITH RECENT REPORTS OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED GRASS FIRES IN
LINCOLN COUNTY).
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS SHOULD EXIT OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA BY 7-9 PM...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD LINGER
AS LATE AS 10-11 PM.
- OVERNIGHT HOURS:
ONCE ANY RAIN VACATES, IT SHOULD BE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL LATE
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TURN MORE
WESTERLY. THAT BEING SAID, AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281
WHERE THE LIGHT WINDS WOULD BE LAST TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. HAVE REFRAINED FROM HITTING FOG
"TOO HARD" AT THIS TIME (IT'S NOT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK), BUT DID INTRODUCE SOME VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FOG TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRODUCTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE...MOST AREAS
AIMED UPPER 20S-LOW 30S (EXCEPT MID 20S NORTH).
- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
THIS WILL BE A DRY, MILD, SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT-BREEZY DAY
(ESPECIALLY NORTH). COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST, WINDS/GUSTS
WERE INCREASED ROUGHLY 5 MPH (ESPECIALLY NORTH). THE OVERALL
STRONGEST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES SUSTAINED AROUND 15
MPH/GUSTING 20-25 MPH WILL FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL AIMED LOW-
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, AFTERNOON RH
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS, BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. THURSDAY NIGHT, LIGHT-BUT-
STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP, KEEPING LOW TEMPS A BIT
MILDER THAN TONIGHT (MAINLY LOW-MID 30S).
- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY (NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS 20+ MPH), SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. AS A RESULT, THIS FORECASTER CONSIDERS THIS TO BE THE
NICEST LOOKING DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK (ALSO THE WARMEST), WITH
HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY MID-UPPER 60S (AND SOME LOW 70S ESPECIALLY IN
OUR KS ZONES). LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT MAINLY UPPER 20S-LOW 30S.
- SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT:
THIS WILL BE THE PROVERBIAL "TRANSITION DAY". WHILE LIKELY DRY
(AT LEAST UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT), A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY, MARKED BY BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN
USUAL, BUT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S SOUTH.
- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
FAR TOO EARLY AND TOO MUCH INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO GO
INTO MUCH DETAIL, BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AMOUNTS OF
SNOW AND/OR MAYBE FREEZING RAIN DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR HIGH,
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY DAYTIME COULD FEATURE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND MONDAY DAYTIME. OFFICIAL PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) ARE LIKELY FAR TOO BROAD-BRUSHED THROUGH THESE PERIODS AT
THIS TIME, BUT HAVE BEEN RAISED TO AS HIGH AS 50% NOW FOR
SUNDAY. CERTAINTLY A FEW DAYS TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ARE COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH MAINLY LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS SATURDAY, AND
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S MONDAY.
- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
VARIOUS LOW-CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE IN OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MAINLY 20-30% CHANCES), AS BOTH ECMWF/GFS
SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH/ENTER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK UP (HIGHS MAINLY BACK INTO THE 50S), THERE
IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF TIME YET TO PARSE OUT FINER DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS DUE
TO LIGHT FOG; OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
VARY BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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