125
FXUS63 KGID 270535
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1135 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GORGEOUS WEATHER TO END THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
60S TO 70S AMIDST PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WHILE NOT COMPLETELY ZERO SIMPLY DUE TO
HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS DUE TO THOSE LIGHT WINDS.
- TRANSITION TO COOLER WEATHER ON SATURDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN SEVERAL CHANCES
- ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR WILL COME SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SNOW/WINTRY MIX MAY BRING MINOR
IMPACTS ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND THE TRI CITIES AND
POINTS TO THE E AND SE. CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS THEREAFTER
REMAIN VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
OUTSIDE OF IT BEING BREEZY, IN SPOTS, CAN'T ASK FOR MUCH NICER
WEATHER FOR LATE FEBRUARY AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE, AMIDST PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WE ARE HITTING NEAR CRITICAL TO
EVEN BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT A FEW SPOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
VERY PLEASANT AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, WITH MORE OF THE AREA RISING INTO THE 70S. EVEN BETTER
IS THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND BE ONLY 5-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME LARGER SCALE PATTERN CHANGES COMMENCE ON
ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA AND KEEP NE
ZONES STUCK IN THE 40S. S/SW ZONES SHOULD STILL WARM NICELY INTO
THE LOWER 60S. AS WITH ANY DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION THERE'S GOING TO BE A RISK OF A
FORECAST TEMPERATURE "BUST". SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONE MORE DAY,
THOUGH, AND SUN WILL HELP OFFSET THE COOLER TEMPS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. WE WILL BE
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH ALMOST ALWAYS
BEGS THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH WILL DRY AIR EAT AWAY AT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN QPF SHIELD. WAVE ALSO APPEARS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY OPEN AND QUICK-HITTING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME
DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAT SE QUARTER OF THE CWA HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MOISTURE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST IT
COULD BE A MIXED BAG FOR PRECIP TYPES - SO PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC
IMPACTS IS TOUGH. AT ANY RATE, WITH US BEING ON THE EDGE OF AN
OPEN-WAVE SYSTEM AND HAVING SOME DRY AIR TO DEAL WITH MAKES ME
THINK OVERALL AMOUNTS OF WHATEVER PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY INTO MONDAY.
A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING NEARLY DAILY PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. FOR NOW, ENSEMBLES KEEP MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS ON THE
WEAKER/LIGHTER/QUICK-HITTING SIDE OF THINGS, BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S,
BUT THESE COULD ALSO CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD...ANY CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS, SO DID INSERT THAT MENTION AT BOTH SITES. WINDS WILL BE
TURNING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON NEAR 20 MPH. SPEEDS TAPER BACK OFF FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ADP
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