063
FXUS63 KGID 272052
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE MILD DAY TOMORROW (THOUGH NOT AS NICE AS TODAY)
BEFORE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, WITH OVERALL
BEST CHANCES (30-50%) BEING S/SE/E OF THE TRI-CITIES. IMPACT
POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT MODELS AGREE THAT WHATEVER DOES
FALL WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
- SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WOULDN'T GET HOPES UP
FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE JUST YET. FORECAST PROBABLY SOUNDS
MORE "ACTIVE" THAN WHAT IT WILL BE IN REALITY.
- SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS MILD-WARM, WITH AT LEAST ONE
DAY FORECAST TO SPIKE INTO THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
AS ANTICIPATED, TODAY HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A NEARLY PERFECT DAY
FOR LATE FEBRUARY...THAT IS, IF YOU DON'T LIKE WINTER.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S-LOW 70S, DECREASING WINDS, AND PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, SO GET OUT AND
ENJOY IT IF YOU CAN.
A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...WITHOUT ANY PRECIP AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN MUCH
CLOUD COVER. THERE'S REALLY NOT MUCH OF A SURGE TO THE COLDER
AIR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE OVER
DRY/BARE GROUND...COULD STILL WARM FAIRLY NICELY INTO THE UPPER
50S TO 60S. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE DEG WARMER AS SUCH.
THE BIGGER DIFFERENCE, THOUGH, WILL BE A STIFFER NRLY BREEZY
AROUND 10-15 MPH. STILL NOT A BAD WAY TO ROUND OUT FEBRUARY.
MARCH WILL TRY TO COME IN LIKE A LION...BUT REALLY IT MAY BE
MORE LIKE A LION CUB WITH NOT MUCH FEROCITY OR INTENSITY. OUR
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME ON SUNDAY, AND BY THEN, SOME
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE DEEPENED ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO THE N/NE. A WEAK AND QUICK-
MOVING, PACIFIC-BASED SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM W
TO E ON SUNDAY, AND MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT QPF WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OF
THE SYSTEM. THE WAVE WILL CARRY SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT FROM THE PACIFIC, BUT DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TOUGHER TO COME BY UNTIL THE VERY "LAST MINUTE", MEANING WESTERN
COUNTIES MAY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE - WITH BETTER
CHANCES E OF HWY 281. EVEN STILL, LOOKS LIKE BRUNT OF QPF WILL
FOCUS CLOSER TO THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN.
IT'S TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC IMPACTS (IF ANY?), AS THAT
REQUIRES A FIRMER GRASP OF WHAT THE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE COMPLEX AND SUGGEST A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN/RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE. OF THESE
OPTIONS, FEEL FREEZING RAIN IS THE LEAST LIKELY TO OCCUR, AND IF
IT DOES OCCUR, IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY AS MOST PRECIP SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WHEN PAVEMENT TEMPS ARE WARMER. ALSO, WE DON'T HAVE ANY SNOW TO
HELP "LOCK IN" THAT NEAR-SFC COLD LAYER. THAT LEAVES SNOW,
SLEET, OR JUST COLD RAIN AS THE OTHER OPTIONS. SLEET CAN BE AN
ISSUE, EVEN IN SMALL AMOUNTS, AS IT'S HARDER TO MELT ON CONTACT,
BUT I'M NOT CONVINCED WE'LL SEE ENOUGH OF IT WITH A FASTER
SYSTEM PROGRESSION, AND AGAIN, MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. SO...BOTTOM
LINE...DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY.
MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS, ESP. SE OF THE TRI-
CITIES, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE MORE THAN A NUISANCE.
A LARGER, AND SOMEWHAT MORE PROMINENT, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE W LATE MON INTO TUE...AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN
SOME FORM OR FASHION INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID, GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE WAVE WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING/WEAKENING WITH
TIME, AND REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS PROCESS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN THIS
FAR OUT...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THIS
TOO WOULD FAVOR A LIGHTER END EVENT QPF WISE, AND NOT ONE THAT
BLANKETS THE AREA IN APPRECIABLE MOISTURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR "LIKELY" POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD SOMEWHERE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM MON NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO WED NIGHT, BUT
THIS IS LIKELY MORE OF A FUNCTION OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN
INDIVIDUAL VORT LOBES SWING THROUGH. I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO
BE AS ACTIVE AS THE CURRENT FORECAST IMPLIES. PRECIP TYPE
REMAINS UP IN THE AIR, BUT AGAIN, WITH THE OVERALL LIGHT/SPOTTY
NATURE TO THE QPF IT MAY NOT MATTER ANYWAY. AT THE VERY LEAST,
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT.
ENSEMBLES FINALLY CLEAR OUT/WEAKEN THE TROUGH ALTOGETHER BY LATE
NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A 1-2 DAY WARMUP BACK
INTO THE 60S - PROBABLY FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER.
THE MAIN AVIATION "CONCERN" WILL BE THE WIDE RANGE OF WIND
DIRECTIONS - ANYWHERE FROM NWRLY THIS AFTERNOON, TO VARIABLE
THIS EVENING, TO E-SE OVERNIGHT, THEN BACK TO NW/N BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY LIGHT AT AROUND 7-12KT FOR ALL BUT THIS EVENING WHEN
THEY'LL BE A BIT LIGHTER.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page