356
FXUS63 KGID 282135
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNDAY-MONDAY CARRY STILL-HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN/LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP. ON SUNDAY, THERE MIGHT
BE A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA). THEN MONDAY MORNING, THERE MIGHT BE
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR EXPECTED
IMPACTS ARE STILL TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY FORMAL ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME.
- TUESDAY COULD BRING ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS,
BUT WITH LESS OF A THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP.
- OUR FORECAST HAS NOW LARGELY "DRIED OUT" FOR WED-THURS, AS WE
RESIDE "IN BETWEEN" UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
- FRIDAY-SATURDAY BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE LOW-CONFIDENCE PRECIP
CHANCES. THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS (FAR FROM A "SURE THING").
- AS FOR CUMULATIVE PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
UNFORTUNATELY WE HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASING TREND, WITH
OFFICIAL WPC QPF NOW LESS THAN 0.25" FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND NO MORE THAN 0.25-0.50" FOR ROUGHLY OUR SE
HALF.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: SUNDAY IS CLEARLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
NEXT WEEK (HIGHS MAINLY 30), WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S-50S
RETURNING MON-TUES...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD 50S-60S WED-SAT
(HIGH TEMPS ACTUALLY TRENDED UP SEVERAL DEGREES WED-FRI).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
COMMENTS:
- IN TERMS OF 7-DAY FORECAST CHANGES SINCE OUR PREVIOUS (EARLY-
AM) ISSUANCE, THEY ARE MAINLY HIGHLIGHTED BY:
1) PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) HAVE BEEN LOWERED ENOUGH FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THAT OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW LARGELY
DRY.
2) DUE IN PART TO #1, HIGH TEMPS HAVE TRENDED UP SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR WED-THURS, BUT HAVE ALSO COME UP FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
- UNFORTUNATELY, WHAT HAS NOT CHANGED IS CONSIDERABLE/ABOVE-
AVERAGE FORECAST UNCERTAINY, BOTH IN THE:
1) SHORTER TERM: BOTH SUNDAY-MONDAY COULD FEATURE PESKY ROUNDS
OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP...OR NOTHING MUCH AT ALL).
2) LONGER TERM: PRIMARILY LONGER-TERM MODELS (ECMWF/GFS) SHOW
WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, MAINLY DUE TO BIG
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN OUR NEXT LARGER-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH (THUS WHY POPS ARE CURRENTLY AT NO HIGHER THAN 50%
DURING THIS TIME).
TAKING THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS "LITERALLY" (OBVIOUSLY FAR
TOO SOON TO DO THIS...BUT JUST TO ILLUSTRATE THE BIG
UNCERTAINTY: THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS A LEGITIMATE
THUNDERSTORM/CONVECTIVE RISK FOR FRIDAY AND IS DRY
SATURDAY...WHILE THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY BUT CONVERSELY
OFFERS RAIN SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. OBVIOUSLY A LOT TO SORT OUT
HERE!
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH SAT. MARCH 7):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM:
JUST TO GET THIS OUT THERE RIGHT OFF THE TOP, IT APPEARS HIGH
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE GOING TO END UP A GOOD 5-10+ DEGREES
COOLER THAN OUR INITIAL EARLY-AM FORECAST. DESPITE WALL-TO-WALL
SUNSHINE, THE STEADY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES AND WEAK LOW- LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE CLEARLY "WINNING OUT". AS A RESULT, HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH (AT BEST) THE UPPER 40S IN OUR NORTH...TO LOW-
MID 50S CENTRAL...TO MAINLY UPPER 50S-LOW 60S IN OUR SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT WARMEST MID 60S MAINLY WITHIN
FURNAS/ROOKS/OSBORNE COUNTIES).
SPEAKING OF THESE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES, IF ANYTHING THEY
ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COMMONLY 10-15 MPH/GUSTS 15-20 MPH (LOCALIZED HIGHER). IN THE
BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER OUR LOCAL CENTRAL PLAINS REGION, AS WE REMAIN WELL
SOUTHWEST OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT STAYS DRY, WITH ONLY INCREASING (AND
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL) CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW-AMPLITUDE
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER
STRATUS CLOUD THAT INVADE MAINLY OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT-SUNRISE, BUT THIS OF LOWER PROBABILITY THAN THE MORE-
CERTAIN HIGH CLOUD INCREASE. AT THE SURFACE, BREEZES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST (SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH). AS FOR LOW TEMPS, THE STEADY
BREEZES/INCREASING CLOUDS ENSURE THAT READINGS WILL NOT "TANK",
BUT DUE IN PART TO TODAY ENDING UP COOLER-THAN-FORECAST,
CERTAINLY DID NOT WANT TO WARM UP LOWS MUCH. AS A RESULT, KEPT
THEM FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MAINLY LOW 20S
NEBRASKA AND MID-UPPER 20S KANSAS (ALONG WITH FURNAS COUNTY
AREA).
- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLE ROUND OF SNOW/SLEET?):
EVEN AT WE GET CLOSER TO "ZERO HOUR", SUNDAY'S FORECAST HONESTLY
REMAINS A LEGITIMATE "PAIN". FOR EXAMPLE, WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF
HAS TRENDED ALL BUT DRY, VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS
(HRRR/NAMNEST) AND EVEN THE RECENT 18Z NAM ARE FAIRLY SUGGESTIVE
THAT ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL FEATURE A RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A VARIED MIX OF SHOWERY PRECIP TYPES OVER
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF OUR CWA (THOSE AREAS MAINLY
NEAR/EAST OF HWY 281 AND NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80). GIVEN THAT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOVER NEAR THE 0C LINE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS,
THIS SHOWERY PRECIP (SHOULD IT DEVELOP) COULD BE ANYTHING FROM
SNOW, TO SLEET, TO PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN OR "PLAIN
RAIN" (ESPECIALLY IN KS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST).
ALTHOUGH THINGS CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STILL TREND
WORSE, OUR LATEST FORECAST OFFICIALLY "DOWNPLAYS" THINGS A BIT,
WITH POPS/CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN 20-40%, AND ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION UNDER ONE-HALF INCH. DUE TO THIS CURRENT "LOW END"
EXPECTATION IN TERMS OF WINTRY PRECIP LIKELIHOOD AND
AMOUNTS/IMPACTS, WE CANNOT JUSTIFY A PROACTIVE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME (BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING). ON TOP OF
EVERYTHING, AND ALTHOUGH NOT REFLECTED IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST
OR THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, THERE COULD EVEN BE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CAPE. AS FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS, THEY WERE
NOT CHANGED MUCH...STILL CALLING FOR MAINLY MID 30S EAST TO
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S WEST.
FOR AROUND SUNSET AND BEYOND, ANY POSSIBLE MEASURABLE WINTRY MIX
SHOULD HAVE VACATED OUR CWA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY THE
LATEST NAM (WHICH IS OFTEN OVER-AGRESSIVENESS WITH LOW LEVEL
SATURATION) SUGGESTS THAT ESPECIALLY OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES COULD
SEE A LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOW TEMPS CHANGED
LITTLE...MAINLY LOW-MID 20S.
- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUES?):
UNFORTUNATELY, UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELIHOOD/MAGNITUDE OF ANY
WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUES. HOWEVER, IT IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE
LIKELY THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FIN-DROPLET DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE (AS OPPOSED TO STEADIER HEAVIER SHOWERS). ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE THREAT WOULD MAINLY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING,
BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY POSSIBLE LIGHT
ICING OVER TO "PLAIN"/NON-FREEZING DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING.
GETTING INTO THE VERY LATE NIGHT (POST-MIDNIGHT) HOURS, SOME
MODELS (INCLUDING ECMWF) SUGGEST THAT AN AREA OF SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FLARE UP VERY NEAR OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA,
BUT BETTER CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY EAST, AND
THIS IS NOT IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST.
TEMP-WISE, HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS (LOW 40S EAST TO UPPER 40S
WEST), WITH MON NIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS (MAINLY UPPER 20S-MID 30S).
- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT (MORE, MAINLY RAIN CHANCES):
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE OF THE
LIGHTER AND NON-FROZEN VARIETY, VARIOUS CHANCES FOR RAIN/RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE AS A SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN, WHILE NOT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOST
AREAS, A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH TEMPS
CURRENTLY AIMED AROUND 50 DEGREES MOST AREAS.
- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (MOSTLY DRY):
ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS COULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT (MAINLY
PER ECWMF), THE MAJORITY OF THESE 48 HOURS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WITH NO MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES, AS WE RESIDE "IN BETWEEN"
SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS HAVE TRENDED UP SEVERAL DEGREES...NOW MAINLY
MID 50S-LOW 60S WED...AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S THURSDAY.
- FRIDAY-SATURDAY (RAIN CHANCES, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY):
MOSTLY COPYING/PASTING WHAT WAS ALREADY TOUCHED ON ABOVE...
PRIMARILY LONGER-TERM MODELS (ECMWF/GFS) SHOW WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS, MAINLY DUE TO BIG TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN OUR
NEXT LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH (THUS WHY POPS ARE CURRENTLY AT
NO HIGHER THAN 50% DURING THIS TIME).
TAKING THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS "LITERALLY" (OBVIOUSLY FAR
TOO SOON TO DO THIS...BUT JUST TO ILLUSTRATE THE BIG
UNCERTAINTY: THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS A LEGITIMATE
THUNDERSTORM/CONVECTIVE RISK FOR FRIDAY (POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE!)
AND IS DRY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY BUT
CONVERSELY OFFERS RAIN SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. OBVIOUSLY A LOT TO
SORT OUT HERE, AND IT'S FAR TOO SOON TO "BUY INTO" ANY ONE
SCENARIO. TEMPERATURE-WISE, ALSO SOMEWHAT LOW-CONFIDENCE, BUT
FOR NOW WE ARE CALLING FOR HIGHS MAINLY MID 50S-LOW 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
FORECAST (SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CIRRUS TONIGHT), ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, LATE
IN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING (MAINLY AFTER 12), THERE ARE AT
LEAST SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTIES, AS SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE GIVE
SLIGHT SUGGESTIONS THAT AN MVFR CEILING COULD TRY TO DEVELOP.
GIVEN THAT NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) PROBABILITIES FOR
MVFR CEILING LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE CURRENTLY NO HIGHER THAN
20-30 PERCENT...WILL ONLY "HINT" AT THIS POSSIBILITY WITH "FEW"
LOW CLOUD GROUPS.
AS FOR WINDS, THEY SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 8-11KT/GUSTS 10-15KT. DIRECTION WILL
VARY SOMEWHAT...SHIFTING FROM MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING, TO MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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