887
FXUS63 KGID 082016
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
316 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE
FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEK (ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND THURSDAY). PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
- A FEW STORMS PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINED WITH A FEW
BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
BRINGS A 40-70% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
- PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL (<0.1") FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AND HIGHER AMOUNTS (UP TO
~0.3") CONCENTRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST (AREAS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER TRACK OF STORMS).
- TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MONDAY (70S TO LOW 80S) BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL HANG IN THE 50S, 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CLEAR SKIES WITH STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS HAVE HELPED HIGHS NEAR THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S TO LOW 80S) WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE WARMING TREND TOPS OFF FOR THE WEEK. GIVEN THE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND STEADY TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS OF
CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SEVERAL AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEAR-TERM REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS A ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT LEAVES WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE, A SOUTHWEST CENTERED CUTOFF LOW AWAITS IN THE WINGS FOR
ITS QUE TO CROSS TOWARDS CENTER STAGE (CENTRAL PLAINS). THIS LOW IS
FAVORED TO MERGE BACK IN WITH THE JET STREAM TUESDAY, ACCELERATING A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
THE AREA ITS NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT (40-
70%). BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES, A COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING
WILL PASS THROUGH AND OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, KNOCKING HIGHS DOWN
AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND DOWN 30
DEGREES FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ORIENTED UNTIL THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TWO PRECIPITATION MODES; A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NEAR/ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. GIVEN
THE APPROACH OF THESE TWO PRECIPITATION FEATURES, THE LOWEST POPS
ACROSS THE AREA (40-50%) PRESENTLY LIE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN,
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL (60-70%) GENERALLY INCREASES AS ONE HEADS
SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
TOTALS SHOULD NATURALLY FALL ACROSS THOSE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TRACKS (UP TO 0.1-0.3").
MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL BE MORE
MINIMAL THAN NOT (<0.1"). ONLY A FEW FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL VENTURE INTO A FEW NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CONDITIONS BEYOND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S), THOUGH CLEARING SKIES
THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE WAY FOR MID 50S TO MID 70S HIGHS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN ACROSS THE
18Z TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY
ROLLING THROUGH. 40-45KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS MAY ARISE AT
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 5-10Z. CONFIDENCE IS MORE SO-SO THAN
CERTAIN (40% CHANCE). WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST, BLOWING BETWEEN 10-15KTS AND GUSTING
DURING THE DAY AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
TEMPERATURES SPREADING UP INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING ACROSS THE 20S TO LOW 30S LEAVE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AS LOW AS 10-30%. SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING BETWEEN 15-30MPH IN
SPOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40MPH HAVE PROVOKED WIDESPREAD NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PERIODS OF NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED TO RETURN MOST AFTERNOONS TO A LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA GIVEN RETAINING DRY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL
BURSTS OF GUSTING WINDS.
THE WARMING TREND WILL BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES TO FALL AS LOW
AS 10-30% ACROSS THE AREA (DRIEST TOWARDS THE WEST). AS THE FORECAST
STANDS, THIS IS THE DRIEST DAY IN THE WEEK (JUST AHEAD OF THURSDAY).
WEST-NORTHWESTRELY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT IN TIME LOOK
TO BE JUST SHY OF REACHING CRITICAL SPEEDS (GUSTS <25MPH), THOUGH
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE MET
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY. THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
WEDNESDAY, MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN IN FROM GUSTY 25-
35MPH NORTHWEST WINDS (SINGLE DIGITS TO TEEN DEWPOINTS). WIDESPREAD
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY UNVEIL ITSELF ONCE
MORE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE MET WEST OF HWY-183.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN THURSDAY (70S) WITH SLOW TO RECOVER
DEWPOINTS (20S) WILL MORE THAN LIKELY LET RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN DIP
TO AS LOW AS 10-30%. THE CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING POTENTIALLY WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
WORST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF THEW WEEK.
THOUGH LESS COVERAGE IN GENERAL, NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO A WESTERN HANDFUL OF AREAS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-040-
046>048-060>063-072>076-082>085.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page