665
FXUS63 KGID 090154
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
854 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS
OF CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE
AT TIMES THIS WEEK. AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED-SAT AFTERNOONS, WITH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CURRENTLY OF HIGHEST CONCERN FOR PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
- SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG WITH
A FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FROM THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BRINGS A 40-70% CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW OF
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES ARE EVEN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
- PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL (<0.1") FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AND HIGHER AMOUNTS (UP TO
~0.3") CONCENTRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST (AREAS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER TRACK OF STORMS).
- TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MONDAY (70S TO LOW 80S) BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL HANG IN THE 50S, 60S AND 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- REGARDING THE NOW-EXPIRED RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY:
NOW THAT EVENING HAS SET IN, WIND GUSTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
DROPPED BELOW 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. AS A
RESULT, TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE "ON TIME"
AT 8 PM.
PLEASE NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY ACROSS THIS
AREA ON MONDAY, AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IN SPOTS, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10-20 PERCENT IN MOST OF OUR AREA, AND
WINDS ALSO GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25 MPH. PLEASE REFER TO
SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CLEAR SKIES WITH STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS HAVE HELPED HIGHS NEAR THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES (70S TO LOW 80S) WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE WARMING TREND TOPS OFF FOR THE WEEK. GIVEN THE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND STEADY TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS OF
CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SEVERAL AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEAR-TERM REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS A ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT LEAVES WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE, A SOUTHWEST CENTERED CUTOFF LOW AWAITS IN THE WINGS FOR
ITS TURN TO CROSS TOWARDS CENTER STAGE (CENTRAL PLAINS). THIS
LOW IS FAVORED TO MERGE BACK IN WITH THE JET STREAM TUESDAY,
ACCELERATING A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING THE AREA ITS NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT (40- 70%). BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES, A COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH AND OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST, KNOCKING HIGHS DOWN AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND DOWN 30 DEGREES FOR FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THE WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ORIENTED UNTIL THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TWO PRECIPITATION MODES; A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NEAR/ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. GIVEN
THE APPROACH OF THESE TWO PRECIPITATION FEATURES, THE LOWEST POPS
ACROSS THE AREA (40-50%) PRESENTLY LIE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN,
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL (60-70%) GENERALLY INCREASES AS ONE HEADS
SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
TOTALS SHOULD NATURALLY FALL ACROSS THOSE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TRACKS (UP TO 0.1-0.3").
MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL BE MORE
MINIMAL THAN NOT (<0.1"). ONLY A FEW FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL VENTURE INTO A FEW NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CONDITIONS BEYOND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S), THOUGH CLEARING SKIES
THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE WAY FOR MID 50S TO MID 70S HIGHS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY-HIGH-CONFIDENCE PERIOD WITH REGARD TO NOT
ONLY VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY, BUT IN FACT NOTHING MORE THAN
FEW/SCT PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AT MOST. WINDS WILL
ALSO NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY ENDED UP BEING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT...THERE WILL BE SOME "SNEAKY BREEZINESS" WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 15-20KT AT TIMES. OVERALL THOUGH, MARGINALLY-STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS REALLY THE PRIMARY ISSUE.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE THIS EVENING, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM AFTERNOON VALUES, BUT WILL
REMAIN A TOUCH BREEZY THIS EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS STILL
10-15KT/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18KT. EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE MINOR
GUSTINESS WILL LET UP SOMEWHAT AS DIRECTION SHIFTS MORE
WESTERLY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAINLY AT-OR-BELOW 11KT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DAYTIME WILL BRING ANOTHER MODEST
UPTICK, WITH GUST POTENTIAL AGAIN INCREASING TO AROUND 16-18KT
AS DIRECTION PREVAILS GENERALLY WESTERLY.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
ALTHOUGH ONLY MARGINALLY-STRONG AND MARGINALLY-WORTHY OF TAF-INCLUSION
AT TIMES, HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS) THE LLWS
GROUPS INTRODUCED IN PREVIOUS TAFS.
- AT KGRI: ACTUALLY SHORTENED THE LLWS DURATION TO 05-08Z, AS
THIS 3-HOUR TIME FRAME IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE UP TO AROUND 43KT OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE LOWEST ROUGHLY 1K FT. AGL (RESULTING
IN ROUGHLY 30KT OF SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
THIS LEVEL).
- AT KEAR: ACTUALLY INTRODUCED A SECONDARY LLWS GROUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT. THE FIRST GROUP (05-08Z) ACCOUNTS FOR
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 40KT OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITHIN THE LOWEST ROUGHLY 1K FT AGL. THIS IS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWED (08-12Z) BY A SECONDARY LLWS GROUP AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
(AGAIN WITHIN THE LOWEST ROUGHLY 1K FT. AGL) SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY, BUT STILL REMAIN UP AROUND 30KT (RESULTING IN
25-30KT OF SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS
LEVEL).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST
LOCALIZED OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY ON SEVERAL
UPCOMING AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK (TUESDAY BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION
RIGHT NOW):
- MONDAY:
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES TO FALL
AS LOW AS 10-25% ACROSS THE AREA (DRIEST TOWARDS THE WEST). AS
THE FORECAST STANDS, THIS IS THE DRIEST DAY IN THE WEEK (JUST
AHEAD OF THURSDAY). WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT
THIS POINT IN TIME LOOK TO BE JUST SHY OF REACHING CRITICAL
SPEEDS (GUSTS <25MPH) ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, THOUGH WIDESPREAD
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE MET FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF ANYWHERE WERE TO HIT
CRITICAL CRITERIA, IT MIGHT BE A FEW OF OUR WESTERN-MOST
NEBRASKA COUNTIES (SUCH AS DAWSON) WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
HOURS OF GUSTS 25+ MPH APPEARS HIGHEST, AND THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WARNING ISSUANCE.
- TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY. THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
WEDNESDAY, MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN IN FROM GUSTY
25-35MPH NORTHWEST WINDS (SINGLE DIGITS TO TEEN DEWPOINTS).
WIDESPREAD NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
UNVEIL ITSELF ONCE MORE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE MET WEST OF
HWY-183.
- THURSDAY:
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN THURSDAY (70S) WITH SLOW TO
RECOVER DEWPOINTS (20S) WILL MORE THAN LIKELY LET RH VALUES ONCE
AGAIN DIP TO AS LOW AS 10-30%. THE CONTINUATION OF GUSTY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING POTENTIALLY
WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OF THEW WEEK.
- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
THOUGH LESS COVERAGE IN GENERAL, NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO A WESTERN HANDFUL OF AREAS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
-- NOTE:
- NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE OVERLAP
OF BOTH 20-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF
20+ MPH/25+ MPH (FOR 3+ HOUR DURATION).
- NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS
THE OVERLAP OF BOTH 25-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS 15+MPH/20+ MPH
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/STUMP
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