201
FXUS63 KGID 100527
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING (MAINLY SE OF
A LINE FROM OSBORNE TO MANKATO).
- A BRIEF AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY SNEAK INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST THREATENING DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
AFTER A VERY WARM DAY TODAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN 10-15 DEGREE COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE LARGELY SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA, BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF OUR KS COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY,
ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
AIDED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF
OSBORNE AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN A "MARGINAL" RISK...PRIMARILY
FOR HAIL.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WOULD FALL AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND NON-ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW. LIQUID
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.01" TO 0.05", SO
THIS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO REPRIEVE FROM THE INCREASINGLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT (SEE MORE
BELOW). THE NEXT MEANINGFUL OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE WITH A SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING.
FEW-SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS WILL PERSIST SUNRISE THROUGH AROUND NOON,
BECOMING LIGHTER DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD,
NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN, GUSTING 20-25KTS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT DECREASES FOR TUESDAY IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS. WEDNESDAY REMAINS COOLER, BUT COULD STILL SEE
RH VALUES DIP BELOW 20% FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 MPH AT
TIMES, THIS WOULD RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT THEN REALLY RAMPS UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE WARMING/DRYING, AND
HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 35
MPH...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN WESTERN ZONES. IF THESE TRENDS
HOLD, EXPECT THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND RED FLAG WARNING TO
BE ISSUED ON UPCOMING SHIFTS.
FRIDAY TRENDS A BIT COOLER AND LESS BREEZY, BUT WESTERLY WINDS
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY RETURNS ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS FOR
SUNDAY THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID, THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP/HUMIDITY/TEMPERATURE
AT THIS POINT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...DAVIS
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page