025
FXUS63 KGID 101141
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20-25MPH THIS MORNING.
- A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DAY OF
HIGHEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO GRAND
ISLAND TO YORK. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING, STALLING OUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUSTING 20- 25MPH. COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S (NORTH) TO UPPER 60S (SOUTH). WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON, AS GUSTS FALL BELOW 20MPH. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOWER TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER AFTERNOON WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
GENERALLY ABOVE 30%.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH, BRINGING UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE STORMS. AREAS MOST LIKELY
TO SEE A SHOWER/STORM WOULD BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PLAINVILLE, KS TO HEBRON, NE. THIS AREA REMAINS OUTLINED IN THE SPC
DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT GIVEN THE SOUTH TREND OF
THE FRONT/CAPE, THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM LOOK
TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FURTHER NORTH, A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW PUSHES INTO
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND NO ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED.
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, GUSTING 25-35 MPH. DESPITE THE COOLER WEATHER, AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA,
BRINGING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA. A PUSH OF
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE HIGHEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 30-
40MPH COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BRING
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MOST NOTABLE SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY RESULT IN
CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KEAR THROUGH 13Z. MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF IFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED
KGRI, AND WILL CLEAR OUT OF KEAR BY 13Z. HAVE INCLUDED AT TEMPO
GROUP TO SHOW THE TRANSITION. SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE STRATUS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS LOWER ACROSS THE AREA AS A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
MOVES NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. OPTED AGAINST A PRECIPITATION
MENTION AS MOST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. CEILINGS MAY REACH MVFR AROUND THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH THE EXACT HEIGHT WILL DEPEND HOW CLOSE THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION IS TO KGRI/KEAR. HAVE KEPT CEILINGS VFR FOR
NOW, BUT AN MVFR GROUP MAY BE NEEDED.
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW 20KTS AROUND NOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10-15KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER DARK,
GUSTS INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KTS AND GUSTS OF
20-25KTS THAT PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AS GUSTS FALL BELOW 20MPH FOR MOST
AREAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALSO KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HIGHER TODAY, WITH MOST AREAS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 30%.
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 25
PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON A PUSH OF
MUCH DRIER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA, RESULTING IN AN AREA WHERE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 25-35MPH EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COMBINED,
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
WARM WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S RESULTS IN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING AT OR BELOW 20% ACROSS THE AREA,
AND BELOW 15 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 30- 40MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IF GREATER MIXING OCCURS. THIS RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
UPCOMING SHIFTS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON FRIDAY WITH OVERALL HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. STILL AN AREA OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 WHERE THERE IS THE
GREATEST OVERLAP OF LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST WINDS.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25% OR LESS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY. GUSTS OF 35-45+MPH. ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW SUPPORT FOR WINDS
GUSTING 50-60MPH. WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP SUNDAY'S
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (25-35%) FROM REACHING OFFICIAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA, THE GUSTY/STRONG WINDS WILL BRING NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
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