613
FXUS63 KGID 101938
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
238 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO (10-20%) WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED LOCALLY.
- A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE (30-50%) ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH A DUSTING OF
SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80. ANY ACCUMULATION OF A FEW
TENTHS OR SO OF SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON UNTIL 9
PM CDT THURSDAY.
- VERY GUSTY WINDS (40-50+ MPH?) ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A COOL AND BREEZY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN A BIT FASTER/STRONGER WITH
THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT, AND ADJUSTED DOWN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACCORDINGLY.
WITH THE QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING APPEARS
MINIMAL, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT, JUST
SOUTH OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AS THEY INITIATE LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THAT SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT A NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES, AND HAVE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. LATER
TONIGHT, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECT TO CROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE
AREA, WITH THE FOCUS REALLY BEING NORTH OF I-80. WHILE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS STATE LINE, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW POTENTIALLY
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80 AND ONLY A FEW TENTHS TO MAYBE AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.
BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT, EXPECT A BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AIR EVENTUALLY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GIVEN
HOW MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TOMORROW,
AND INSTEAD FOCUS ON THURSDAY WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES SOAR BACK INTO THE 70S.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BRING SOME MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA, WITH LIGHT SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE SUNDAY. THE EC CONTINUES TO PAIN FAIRLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS 50+ MPH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY, BUT EVEN
THE GFS IS HINTING AT 40+ MPH GUSTS, SO COULD BE A COLD AND
BLUSTERY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT SNOW
AMOUNTS AS WELL, BUT WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, DO NOT ANTICIPATED A MAJOR SNOW EVENT
ALTHOUGH IMPACTS COULD BE NOTICEABLE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME MVFR STRATUS AND MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
IN THE NIGHT AS A LIGHT BAND OF RAIN/SNOW POTENTIALLY IMPACTS
THE TERMINALS. THIS MVFR STRATUS SHOULD THEN LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES RETURNING BEFORE
MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE STEADY OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 15 KTS...INCREASING LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25 KTS+
POSSIBLE AFTER 12/07Z AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS AND KEEPS THE WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ITS GETTING TO BE THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE RAMPING UP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE FUELS START TO GREEN
UP, LESSENING CONCERNS. AS BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOONS COMBINE WITH
DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH
DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST CRITICAL
DAY APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP PROMOTE DEEP MIXING, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MORE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SATURDAY - ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY, BUT WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS APPEAR MORE QUESTIONABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
FIRE WEATHER...ROSSI
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