659
FXUS63 KGID 110543
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL QUICKLY SWEEP NW TO SE ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ONLY LASTS 2-3 HRS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION, BUT A QUICK DUSTING TO 1" WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND N OF I-80. SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. SNOW SHOULD LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AM
COMMUTE, BUT SLICK SPOTS COULD LINGER THROUGH MID-AM.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOON UNTIL 9
PM CDT THURSDAY.
- VERY GUSTY WINDS (40-50+ MPH?) ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A COOL AND BREEZY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN A BIT FASTER/STRONGER WITH
THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT, AND ADJUSTED DOWN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACCORDINGLY.
WITH THE QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING APPEARS
MINIMAL, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT, JUST
SOUTH OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AS THEY INITIATE LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THAT SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT A NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES, AND HAVE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. LATER
TONIGHT, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECT TO CROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE
AREA, WITH THE FOCUS REALLY BEING NORTH OF I-80. WHILE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS STATE LINE, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW POTENTIALLY
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80 AND ONLY A FEW TENTHS TO MAYBE AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.
BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT, EXPECT A BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AIR EVENTUALLY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GIVEN
HOW MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TOMORROW,
AND INSTEAD FOCUS ON THURSDAY WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES SOAR BACK INTO THE 70S.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BRING SOME MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA, WITH LIGHT SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE SUNDAY. THE EC CONTINUES TO PAIN FAIRLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS 50+ MPH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY, BUT EVEN
THE GFS IS HINTING AT 40+ MPH GUSTS, SO COULD BE A COLD AND
BLUSTERY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT SNOW
AMOUNTS AS WELL, BUT WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, DO NOT ANTICIPATED A MAJOR SNOW EVENT
ALTHOUGH IMPACTS COULD BE NOTICEABLE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS. A
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS FORECAST TO SWEEP NW TO SE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF, A QUICK DUSTING TO HALF INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS. DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 09-11Z, BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY BOTH
BE REDUCED TO IFR LEVELS. SNOW SHOULD END COMPLETELY AROUND
12-13Z, BUT SOME MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OUT OF THE N/NNW THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON - SUSTAINED 13-18KT AND GUSTS 25-30KT. WIND
WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET WED EVE AND BEGIN TO TURN TO
THE W THEN SW LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ITS GETTING TO BE THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE RAMPING UP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE FUELS START TO GREEN
UP, LESSENING CONCERNS. AS BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOONS COMBINE WITH
DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH
DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST CRITICAL
DAY APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP PROMOTE DEEP MIXING, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MORE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SATURDAY - ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY, BUT WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS APPEAR MORE QUESTIONABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...THIES
FIRE WEATHER...ROSSI
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