123
FXUS63 KGID 111738
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MO NW TO SE ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS/SUNRISE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ONLY LASTS 2-3 HRS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION, BUT A QUICK DUSTING TO 1" WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND N OF I-80. SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. SNOW SHOULD LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AM
COMMUTE, BUT SLICK SPOTS COULD LINGER THROUGH MID-AM.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVORED ON
THURSDAY WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT 12PM TO 9PM.
- STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OVER 50MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A BAND OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
HOLDREGE TO CAMBRIDGE. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. THIS BAND WILL LAST ONLY A 2-3 HOURS IN ANY ONE LOCATION,
BUT A QUICK DUSTING TO 1" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THIS BAND MOVES
THROUGH. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 COULD SEE LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 2". THE SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (EAST OF HWY 81) AROUND SUNRISE, RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
20-25MPH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
FALLING SNOW. TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS MELTING ANY SNOW THAT ACCUMULATES BY THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE COOLER/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS A DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-30MPH COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM SUPERIOR TO KEARNEY. A WINDOW OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY
183 WHERE HUMIDITY IS FAVORED TO BE THE LOWEST, BUT THE
DURATION AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY, ANY SNOW THIS
MORNING COULD WET FUELS ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
THOUGH FUELS MAY STILL DRY OUT QUICKLY GIVEN THE RATHER MEAGER
PRECIPITATION (UNDER 0.10").
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF HIGHEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS
FAVORED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SOAR INTO THE 70S,
WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUSTY WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GUSTING 30-40MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE HREF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 40MPH.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING BELOW 20% ACROSS THE AREA, AND BELOW 15% WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. COMBINED, THE WINDS AND HUMIDITY RESULT IN
FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE AREA, AND WILL BE IN EFFECT 12PM TO 9PM
THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY, WITH THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SHOWING A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 55MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A COOL AND BREEZY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN A BIT FASTER/STRONGER WITH
THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT, AND ADJUSTED DOWN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACCORDINGLY.
WITH THE QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING APPEARS
MINIMAL, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT, JUST
SOUTH OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AS THEY INITIATE LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THAT SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT A NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES, AND HAVE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. LATER
TONIGHT, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECT TO CROSS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE
AREA, WITH THE FOCUS REALLY BEING NORTH OF I-80. WHILE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS STATE LINE, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW POTENTIALLY
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS I-80 AND ONLY A FEW TENTHS TO MAYBE AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92.
BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT, EXPECT A BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AIR EVENTUALLY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GIVEN
HOW MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TOMORROW,
AND INSTEAD FOCUS ON THURSDAY WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPERATURES SOAR BACK INTO THE 70S.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BRING SOME MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA, WITH LIGHT SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE SUNDAY. THE EC CONTINUES TO PAIN FAIRLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS 50+ MPH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY, BUT EVEN
THE GFS IS HINTING AT 40+ MPH GUSTS, SO COULD BE A COLD AND
BLUSTERY FINISH TO THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT SNOW
AMOUNTS AS WELL, BUT WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, DO NOT ANTICIPATED A MAJOR SNOW EVENT
ALTHOUGH IMPACTS COULD BE NOTICEABLE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 15KFT LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTH, TRANSITIONING TO SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND GUSTING TO NEAR 35 KTS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, COULD SEE SOME MARGINAL LLWS FOR A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK THURSDAY, AND INTRODUCED THIS FROM
12/10-12/16Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WIDESPREAD NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A
PUSH OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING BELOW 25% ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
SUPERIOR TO KEARNEY. THIS BRINGS NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A LOCALIZED OR
BRIEF AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183, WHERE THE DRIEST WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ONE
MITIGATING FACTOR, PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA COULD BE LIGHT SNOW THAT FALLS THIS MORNING. WHILE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WILL BE UNDER 0.10", IT COULD BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP FUELS MOIST ENOUGH TO INHIBIT/LIMIT FIRE GROWTH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT 12PM
TO 9PM. HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON, A PUSH OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY MEMBERS OF THE HREF WHICH SHOWS GUSTS OF 40-
50MPH POSSIBLE. COMBINED THIS RESULTS IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO BREEZY WINDS
AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RESULTING IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 50MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW BRING UNCERTAINTY ON THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
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