823
FXUS63 KGID 112326
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON
THURSDAY WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 9PM.
- STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-80
BEING THE MOST FAVORED TO RECEIVE ANY ACCUMULATION.
- A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 30S TO THE 70S
DEPENDING ON THE DAY. CONSISTENTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE QUICK DUSTING+ OF SNOW THAT ACCUMULATED ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES THIS MORNING CAN BE SEEN RAPIDLY ERODING ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE COVERAGE
REMAINING AS OF 2 PM. SOME FAIR WEATHER CU CAN ALSO BE SEEN
DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE, BUT ALL INDICATIONS FROM MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS ARE THAT THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT (AND IN SOME
CASES MODEST) SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN TIGHTEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT WINDS TO
REALLY CRANK UP, WITH A WINDY AND DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH WIND GUSTS 40+ MPH AND RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT,
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH JUST THE SMALLEST CHANCE (20%) FOR A SHOWER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST, WITH COOLER, BUT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND
SATURDAY (MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS?) DROPPING MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS YO
YO IN TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND A SMALL CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW WITH WINDS 50+ MPH ACROSS
THE AREA COULD RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN, THE RAW
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT
NUMBER OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON - WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY WARRANT THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING.
AS WINDS THEN DIE OFF SUNDAY EVENING, EXPECT A VERY COLD START
TO THE WORK WEEK, WITH LOWER TEENS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST TO
START THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST, AND THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY HELP
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (AND DRY CONDITIONS) THEN EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGH POTENTIALLY THE END OF MARCH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) TOWARDS DAWN, THEN VERY STRONG
SW TO W WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY.
BREEZY NW WINDS, AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES, WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DAYLIGHT THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL BACK TO SSW AND INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS JET LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 50KT, WHICH WILL BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LLWS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN BY 15-16Z THU AND REMAIN STRONG ALL
DAY OUT OF THE SW TO W. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25KT AND GUSTS
35-40KT ARE EXPECTED. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THIS VALID TAF PERIOD - AROUND 03Z FRI.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST/SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM KEARNEY, NE TO BELOIT, KS TODAY, DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25
PERCENT AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS UP TO 35 MPH.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 MPH, ALONG WITH SURGING TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES AS
LOW AS 15 PERCENT, COMBINE TO PROMOTE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED RH VALUES SHOULD LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS RETURNING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT,
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER POTENTIALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY - ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS - WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW LIKELY DAMPENING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, DESPITE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
50+ MPH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...THIES
FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
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