083
FXUS63 KGID 120827
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
327 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT 12PM TO 9PM.
- HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT 9PM TO 3AM FRIDAY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 60MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
- HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
35-45MPH.
- WINDY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 50MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 20S WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A DEEPENING LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING, LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO MIX THIS MORNING, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA, GUSTING 30-40MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S AIDED
BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING AS
SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING BELOW 20% ACROSS THE AREA. A PUSH OF STRONGER WINDS
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH GUSTS TO 45MPH. COMBINED, THIS RESULTS IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH RAPID FIRE GROWTH POSSIBLE IN FIRES THAT DEVELOP. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT 12PM TO 9PM.
A COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING A THREAT FOR
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. SOME HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE
THE HRRR INDICATES AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT ALL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT WINDS THIS STRONG, THOUGH A WINDOW OF GUSTY WINDS IS STILL
FAVORED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50KT WINDS STRETCHING DOWN AS LOW AS 925MB
ALOFT, WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINE WORTHY WINDS. IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED
FROM 9PM TODAY THROUGH 3AM FRIDAY WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST MODEL
SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS (COUNTIES ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183).
WINDS STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH GUSTS
FALLING BELOW 20MPH FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. COOLER BUT STILL
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
(CENTRAL/NORTHEAST) AND 60S (SOUTHWEST). A BRIEF WINDOW OF NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
283 DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS ON TRACK AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BEHIND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ECMWF ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 30-60%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60MPH. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE, WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
FALLING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE QUICK DUSTING+ OF SNOW THAT ACCUMULATED ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES THIS MORNING CAN BE SEEN RAPIDLY ERODING ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE COVERAGE
REMAINING AS OF 2 PM. SOME FAIR WEATHER CU CAN ALSO BE SEEN
DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE, BUT ALL INDICATIONS FROM MODEL DATA
AND SOUNDINGS ARE THAT THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT (AND IN SOME
CASES MODEST) SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN TIGHTEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT WINDS TO
REALLY CRANK UP, WITH A WINDY AND DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH WIND GUSTS 40+ MPH AND RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT,
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH JUST THE SMALLEST CHANCE (20%) FOR A SHOWER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST, WITH COOLER, BUT LESS WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND
SATURDAY (MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS?) DROPPING MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS YO
YO IN TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT
ONLY IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND A SMALL CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW WITH WINDS 50+ MPH ACROSS
THE AREA COULD RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN, THE RAW
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT
NUMBER OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON - WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY WARRANT THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING.
AS WINDS THEN DIE OFF SUNDAY EVENING, EXPECT A VERY COLD START
TO THE WORK WEEK, WITH LOWER TEENS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST TO
START THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST, AND THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY HELP
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (AND DRY CONDITIONS) THEN EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGH POTENTIALLY THE END OF MARCH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LLWS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE, AND AROUND SUNSET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEFORE
SUNRISE, WINDS RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ALOFT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA. LLWS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN. GUSTY-STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED 20-25KTS AND GUSTING AROUND 35KTS ARE EXPECTED
MID MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER, WITH
GUSTS OF 35-40KTS. WINDS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET, AS GUSTS FALL
TO OR BELOW 30KTS, WITH LLWS REDEVELOPING ALOFT. LLWS WILL
WEAKEN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CLIMBING
REACHING 30-40KTS (HIGHEST AT KGRI).
FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 9PM TODAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 30-40MPH WILL DEVELOP BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX. HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S
TODAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP MIXING WHICH RESULTS IN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 20% ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A PUSH OF
STRONGER WINDS MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH GUSTS TO 45MPH. WINDS
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AROUND SUNSET, THOUGH GUSTS MAY STILL REACH 30-
35MPH.
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 9-11PM WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN,
PARTICULARLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
281 WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 50-60MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE, WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW 40%
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IF GREATER WINDS DO UNFOLD (AS SHOWN IN THE
HRRR/RAP, IT COULD RESULT IN HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE
20S AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SEE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, REACHING 50% BY
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS STEADILY DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GUSTS FALL BELOW 20MPH BY SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO BREEZY WINDS
AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RESULTING IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 50MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SNOW BRING UNCERTAINTY ON THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...DAVIS
FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
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