366
FXUS63 KGID 131735
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..AVIATION/UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
- SATURDAY TRENDS WARMER AND DRIER, WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS, A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW, AND A A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONCERN AT THE
MOMENT (ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND BLOWING DUST
IN SPOTS), AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM SUNDAY.
- THE COLD AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH. NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MUCH
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281.
IN ADDITION, VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING, AND WILL EVENTUALLY
SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT, BUT WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE.
SATURDAY IS TRENDING TOWARDS A "SNEAKY" FIRE WEATHER DAY. NEAR-
TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND THE
WARMUP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AND IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE AT
LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF RED-FLAG CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH
MAY ALSO RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN, CHANGING TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY. THAT SAID, COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW IS STILL PRETTY
UNCERTAIN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA/KANSAS. BETTER CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL (1.0"+) SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY IS TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST.
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND
SOME AREAS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA (60+ MPH).
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE VERY COLD. SINGLE DIGIT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES ARE FAVORED
FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT, A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GRAND ISLAND TO EXCEED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
EACH DAY MARCH 18-20TH. THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THIS THREE-DAY
STRETCH IS: 80, 86, AND 84 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
DRY, WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. THIS COMBINATION HAS LED TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WITH MULTIPLE FIRES BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE 5-15 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS APPROACHING FRONT, EXPECT A
DISTINCT SHIFT IN WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO RESULT IN A
NOTABLY COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND LIGHTER WINDS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD EASE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN, HELPING TO
ADVECT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DO NOT LOOK AS CRITICAL OR
WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY, EXPECT AT LEAST NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST PART
(MAINLY SW HALF) OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WARM-UP WILL BE BRIEF, HOWEVER, AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE LOCAL
AREA. AT THIS POINT, WINDS IN MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE POINTING
AT 50-60+ MPH WIND GUST POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. WHILE THE WINDS MAY
EVENTUALLY JUSTIFY A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, WINDS THIS STRONG COMBINED WITH ANY SNOW COULD CAUSE
SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SUNDAY, SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS PERIOD.
BEYOND SUNDAY, EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS
MONDAY MORNING LIKELY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR
TYPICALLY COOLEST SPOTS AND HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MID-30S. THEREAFTER, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR A
POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME - MEANING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY FINISHING OUT MUCH OF THE MONTH OF MARCH.
COULD EVEN SEE THE RETURN OF SOME 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
MODEST LLWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES SHIFTING AND BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AFT ABOUT 13/20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT AN INCREASING LLJ ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WS SHOULD
LAST FROM ABOUT 14/05Z-14/15Z OR SO...WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS
EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039-
040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005-
006-017-018.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...MANGELS/ROSSI
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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