184
FXUS63 KGID 140014
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
714 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO WESTERN PARTS OF
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 70S
AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM
11 AM TO 9 PM SATURDAY.
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS, A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW, AND A A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONCERN AT THE MOMENT (ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW
AND BLOWING DUST/ASH IN SPOTS), AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM SUNDAY.
- THIS COLD AIR BLAST WILL NOT LAST LONG. NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLED IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS PICKING UP A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS, WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
BEING OBSERVED IN A FEW SPOTS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. THESE
MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OUR WEST, AND CAN SEE AN
UPTICK IN FIRE ACTIVITY ON THE COTTONWOOD FIRE ON SATELLITE THE
THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A RESULT.
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH
LESS GUSTINESS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT SHOULD
RESULT IN A MORE BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ONCE WE
BEGIN TO MIX THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE MORNING, AND A RED FLAG
WARNING WAS ISSUED FROM ROUGHLY 281 WESTWARD THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WAS A BIT GENEROUS WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE WARNING, BUT IF WE MIX JUST A BIT DEEPER (TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD) THE MORE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST. OUTSIDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
SATURDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT/BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA - WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 70S FOR MOST.
SATURDAY EVENING THE FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. ONE SMALL CONCERN NOT COVERED
IN THE CURRENT HEADLINES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURGE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS INDICATED IN A FEW
MODELS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REACH 60 MPH
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THIS
SURGE, DID NOT INCLUDE THIS PERIOD IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS THE
MAIN SHOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY WITH/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MULTIPLE EC/GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE STRONGLY SIGNALING SEVERE GUSTS WITH THIS FRONT, AND
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH TO COVER THIS (ALBEIT, IT MAY BE NEED
TO EVENTUALLY BEGIN EARLIER IF SOUTHERLY SURGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER).
WHILE WINDS ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY WINDY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION, PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD, AND
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ROUGHLY BEEN
CUT IN HALF FROM JUST 12 HOURS AGO. EVENSO, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
WITH 60+ MPH WINDS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, SO WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IN ADDITION, THE DRY WEATHER AND RECENT
FIRES COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BLOWING DUST/ASH ACROSS THE
AREA, AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TO THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY PRIMARILY FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE NEBRASKA TRI-
CITIES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET, AND EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SPOTS, WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES ANTICIPATED. THIS
COLD START TO THE WEEK WILL BE BRIEF, HOWEVER, AND A RETURN TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THANKFULLY, AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR THANKS TO A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALOFT, WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AND WHILE
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, IT COULD
BE MUCH WORSE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY AT-OR-ABOVE 15K FT.
THAT LEAVES MODERATELY-BREEZY SURFACE WINDS, ALONG WITH A 6-7
HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATELY-STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AS
THE PRIMARY ISSUES.
- SURFACE WINDS:
THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL TREND INCREASINGLY FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT/GUSTS 15+KT AT
TIMES. LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS DIRECTION BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY. FINALLY,
THE OVERALL-STRONGEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY SPEEDS INCREASING TO SUSTAINED
15-20KT/GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
ADJUSTED TIMING OF PREVIOUSLY-INTRODUCED LLWS GROUPS TO START A
FEW HOURS LATER, AND ALSO END A BIT EARLIER (NOW 08-14Z
KEAR/08-15Z KGRI). DURING THIS TIME, WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST
1-2K FT. AGL WILL ACCELERATE TO AS HIGH AS AROUND 43KT FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, CREATING AROUND 30KT OF TOTAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039-
040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005-
006-017-018.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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