915
FXUS63 KGID 141124
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
REFER TO THE "FIRE WEATHER" SECTION FOR MORE SPECIFICS.
- VERY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
- NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OVERALL, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY,
FUELED BY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 1-4AM SUNDAY,
USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
(~50 MPH), BUT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME. SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY (60-70% CHANCE).
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE WIND ON
SUNDAY (PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS). FORTUNATELY, THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST,
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR 1.0" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS VERY LOW
(10% OR LESS). NEVERTHELESS, LOCALIZED POOR VISIBILITY OR PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AND, SPEAKING OF POOR VISIBILITY, THE STRONG WINDS COULD PROMOTE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A "CLASSIC" BLOWING DUST SETUP, THE BURN SCARS FROM THE
RECENT WILDFIRES WILL PRESENT A SOURCE FOR BLOWING ASH/DUST.
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS -15 DEGREES. MONDAY REMAINS COLD AND BREEZY, BUT A WARMUP
IS STILL ON-TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLED IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS PICKING UP A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS, WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
BEING OBSERVED IN A FEW SPOTS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. THESE
MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OUR WEST, AND CAN SEE AN
UPTICK IN FIRE ACTIVITY ON THE COTTONWOOD FIRE ON SATELLITE THE
THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A RESULT.
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH
LESS GUSTINESS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT SHOULD
RESULT IN A MORE BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ONCE WE
BEGIN TO MIX THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE MORNING, AND A RED FLAG
WARNING WAS ISSUED FROM ROUGHLY 281 WESTWARD THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WAS A BIT GENEROUS WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE WARNING, BUT IF WE MIX JUST A BIT DEEPER (TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD) THE MORE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST. OUTSIDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
SATURDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT/BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA - WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 70S FOR MOST.
SATURDAY EVENING THE FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. ONE SMALL CONCERN NOT COVERED
IN THE CURRENT HEADLINES IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURGE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS INDICATED IN A FEW
MODELS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REACH 60 MPH
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THIS
SURGE, DID NOT INCLUDE THIS PERIOD IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS THE
MAIN SHOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY WITH/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MULTIPLE EC/GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE STRONGLY SIGNALING SEVERE GUSTS WITH THIS FRONT, AND
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH TO COVER THIS (ALBEIT, IT MAY BE NEED
TO EVENTUALLY BEGIN EARLIER IF SOUTHERLY SURGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER).
WHILE WINDS ON SUNDAY CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY WINDY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION, PRECIPITATION HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD, AND
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ROUGHLY BEEN
CUT IN HALF FROM JUST 12 HOURS AGO. EVENSO, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
WITH 60+ MPH WINDS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, SO WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IN ADDITION, THE DRY WEATHER AND RECENT
FIRES COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BLOWING DUST/ASH ACROSS THE
AREA, AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TO THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY PRIMARILY FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE NEBRASKA TRI-
CITIES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET, AND EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SPOTS, WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -10 DEGREES ANTICIPATED. THIS
COLD START TO THE WEEK WILL BE BRIEF, HOWEVER, AND A RETURN TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THANKFULLY, AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR THANKS TO A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALOFT, WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AND WHILE
THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, IT COULD
BE MUCH WORSE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WINDS TODAY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND
07Z, USHERING IN STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS 40KT).
EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAYTIME
ON SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN JUST PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
TODAY, HUMIDITY WILL DIP VERY LOW (15 PERCENT OR LOWER) IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. AS A RESULT, AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE IN A RED FLAG WARNING.
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH COLDER, THEREFORE HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL REMAIN COLD...BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND BREEZY.
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH WINDS DO NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ005-006-017-018.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...MANGELS
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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