785
FXUS63 KGID 150510
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1210 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
- A SHARP, BUT BRIEF COLD SNAP BEGINS SUNDAY AND LASTS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
- RAPID AND IMPRESSIVE WARM UP STARTS TUESDAY, AND RAMPS UP
WEDNESDAY WITH SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. REFER TO THE
"CLIMATE" SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN WYOMING HAS WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED, THUS KEEP A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH CLOUDS ALSO STREAMING EAST
OFF THE FRONT AT THIS. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT, WINDS AND CLOUDS AND
HELD TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT TODAY THOUGH CAMBRIDGE DID MANAGE TO
REACH 70 DEGREES.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST BUT MAY NOT
CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA, NONETHELESS ITS A MILD EVENING FOR THE AREA.
WEAK LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSELY COULD TRIGGER SOME
SPOTTER VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENING THOUGH THE
RISK FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST, THERE MAY EVEN BE A
LIGHTNING STRIKE NORTHEAST OF GRAND ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY.
HONESTLY, THE MAIN STORY IS THE WIND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOVED
UP THE START TIME OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO 3 AM TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL GUST ABOVE 55 MPH ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE,
WHICH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 2 AM
AND 6 AM. THE WINDS ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO THE 65 MPH RANGE, AND I
WOULDN'T RULE OUT A 70 MPH REPORT, ESPECIALLY IF SOME MORE CLEARING
CAN TAKE HOLD. ASIDE FROM THE WIND, SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SKIRT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. RIGHT NOW, SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH, BUT WITH THE HIGH WINDS
VISIBILITY WOULD BE REDUCED, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 92 FOR A TIME. AGAIN, PROBABILITY OF EVEN AN INCH OF
SNOW IS VERY LOW. SKIES MAY START TO CLEAR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST. IF THAT CLEARING STARTS EARLY, THAT COULD ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO MIX DOWN EVEN MORE. ALSO, TEMPERATURES WILL GO
NOWHERE SUNDAY AND PROBABLY DROP DURING THE DAY. WHAT A SHOCK TO
THE SYSTEM.
THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS GOES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, BUT AFTER
9 PM WINDS WILL SLOWLY DROP OFF, THROUGH REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN STORY BY THIS TIME WILL BE BITTER
COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY, WELL BELOW
ZERO FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE BUT
WILL STILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE WARMUP STARTS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH GUSTS OVER
50KTS EXPECTED AT TIMES (MAINLY IN THE DAYTIME HOURS).
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
SNOW (AND MVFR CEILINGS) MOVING INTO THE AREA CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINOR AT EAR/GRI, BUT MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS/VIS.
WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF AND SKIES CLEAR SUNDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. A RED FLASH WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281, BUT WITHIN THAT AREA ITS REALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE THE LOWEST. WINDS ARE A
LITTLE SUSPECT AT TIMES, BUT AT THIS POINT WITH FUEL CONDITIONS, A
RED FLAG WARNING IS QUITE WORTHY. CONDITIONS PROBABLY WON'T
REACH CRITERIA CLOSER TO 281 BUT WILL STILL BE AT LEAST NEAR
CRITICAL AND SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE GROWTH SHOULD ONE DEVELOP. ONE
WILD CARD IS THE PASSING OF A FEW HIGH-BASED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING THAT COULD POSE SOME ERRATIC WIND
ISSUES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AS FIRE CONTAINMENT CONTINUES IN
WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY.
HIGH WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY POSE A RISK AS WELL FOR FIRE
GROWTH, THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERING, CLOUDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO KEEP RED FLAG OFF THE TABLE FOR TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING MONDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE NEAR
15% EVEN WITH 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES, SO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
COULD SNEAK IN THERE AGAIN.
AND A BRIEF NOTE FOR LATE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES 25+ WARMER THAN
NORMAL (IN THE 80S AT LEAST) WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE IT
DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY WINDY, SUCH WARMTH WILL EASILY SUPPORT VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL WILDFIRE GROWTH CONCERNS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND BEYOND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FROM THE CLIMATE STANDPOINT, THE END OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS MORE
LIKE SUMMER THAN LATE MARCH. BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURGE
INTO THE 70S/80S, AND THEN 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR
PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT ARE 55-59 DEGREES,
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS EASILY 25 DEGREES WARMER. THE HEAT WILL
BE DRIVEN BY AN UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH PEAKS DEAD CENTER ON THE
4-CORNERS EARLY FRIDAY AT FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN
NORMAL. WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AT THIS TIME, BUT ITS VERY
REASONABLE TO ASSUME THE CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE ON THE "COOL" END
BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE VERY DRY, WARM GROUND FOR LATE MARCH.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY SO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH
COULD LAST THROUGH THE 25TH OR 26TH. SO FAR IN MARCH, GRAND ISLAND
IS AT ITS 10TH WARMEST ON RECORD. EVEN WITH THE BRIEF CHILL COMING,
GRAND ISLAND COULD START CLIMBING THE CHARTS PRETTY QUICKLY LATE
THIS WEEK.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MORITZ
AVIATION...MANGELS
FIRE WEATHER...MORITZ
CLIMATE...MORITZ
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