864
FXUS63 KGID 151136
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FROM 7AM TO 7PM TODAY.
- HIGH-WIND (GUSTS NEAR 65 MPH) REMAINS ON-TRACK FOR TODAY.
- TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE BITTERLY COLD, BUT IT WILL NOT
LAST FOR LONG. 70S AND 80S RETURN FOR WED-SAT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NUDGING INTO WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY AS OF
2AM SUNDAY MORNING. GENERALLY, THE INITIAL SURGE OF WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BEEN PRODUCING GUSTS ~50 MPH, BUT STRONGER
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY. ALL AREAS HAVE A
HIGH CHANCE (70%+) TO SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH TODAY. THIS
ILL BE ESPECIALLY PROBLEMATIC FOR ONGOING FIRES SOUTH/WEST OF
GOTHENBURG. ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING
DUST/ASH IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE BURN SCARS. WINDS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY COLD WIND CHILLS (-5 TO -15 DEGREES).
THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, BUT SOME AREAS MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH
ACCUMULATION (AROUND 1") TO HAVE SOME TRAVEL TROUBLES. THE
PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
ORD TO ST. PAUL TO YORK. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES,
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT OFF THE ROADWAYS, BUT CRASHING
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON
BRIDGES. BECAUSE OF THIS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS
OF POOR VISIBILITY, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED.
TONIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY END UP
SHORT OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (WIND CHILLS -20 OR
LOWER), IT WILL STILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING IN QUITE SOME TIME.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG WARMING TREND
THEN TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY, AND WIDESPREAD 70S AND 80S ARE
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN WYOMING HAS WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED, THUS KEEP A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH CLOUDS ALSO STREAMING EAST
OFF THE FRONT AT THIS. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT, WINDS AND CLOUDS AND
HELD TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT TODAY THOUGH CAMBRIDGE DID MANAGE TO
REACH 70 DEGREES.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST BUT MAY NOT
CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA, NONETHELESS ITS A MILD EVENING FOR THE AREA.
WEAK LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSELY COULD TRIGGER SOME
SPOTTER VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENING THOUGH THE
RISK FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST, THERE MAY EVEN BE A
LIGHTNING STRIKE NORTHEAST OF GRAND ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY.
HONESTLY, THE MAIN STORY IS THE WIND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MOVED
UP THE START TIME OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO 3 AM TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL GUST ABOVE 55 MPH ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE,
WHICH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 2 AM
AND 6 AM. THE WINDS ONLY INCREASE FROM THERE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO THE 65 MPH RANGE, AND I
WOULDN'T RULE OUT A 70 MPH REPORT, ESPECIALLY IF SOME MORE CLEARING
CAN TAKE HOLD. ASIDE FROM THE WIND, SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SKIRT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. RIGHT NOW, SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH, BUT WITH THE HIGH WINDS
VISIBILITY WOULD BE REDUCED, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 92 FOR A TIME. AGAIN, PROBABILITY OF EVEN AN INCH OF
SNOW IS VERY LOW. SKIES MAY START TO CLEAR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST. IF THAT CLEARING STARTS EARLY, THAT COULD ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO MIX DOWN EVEN MORE. ALSO, TEMPERATURES WILL GO
NOWHERE SUNDAY AND PROBABLY DROP DURING THE DAY. WHAT A SHOCK TO
THE SYSTEM.
THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS GOES INTO SUNDAY EVENING, BUT AFTER
9 PM WINDS WILL SLOWLY DROP OFF, THROUGH REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN STORY BY THIS TIME WILL BE BITTER
COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY, WELL BELOW
ZERO FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES DO REBOUND A BIT MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE BUT
WILL STILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE WARMUP STARTS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTS TO NEAR 50KTS
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED...MAINLY 14-19Z TODAY,
ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. VISIBILITY COULD
DIP BELOW 1 MILE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-047>049-063-064.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...MORITZ
AVIATION...MANGELS
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