611
FXUS63 KGID 152223
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
523 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA (CWA) WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT A HIGH WIND WARNING
(FOR CONTINUED FREQUENT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50-60 MPH) REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 9 PM.
- ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO MEET COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON AM WILL BOTTOM
OUT AS COLD AS -5 TO -15 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA...UNUSUALLY COLD FOR MID-MARCH.
- FORTUNATELY, NO DAYS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD FEATURE
WINDS EVEN CLOSE TO HOW STRONG TODAY'S WIND WERE. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL STILL BE A HANDFUL OF AT LEAST BREEZY DAYS,
PROMOTING CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL"
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (SEE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
- OTHER THAN A SMALL CHANCE FOR PERHAPS A GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SNOW MAINLY IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST/EAST COUNTIES
TUESDAY, UNFORTUNATELY THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY CURRENTLY
LOOKS DRY.
- PROBABLY THE BIGGEST (AT LEAST MOST NOTICEABLE) STORY OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE INCREDIBLE WARM-UP...WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING FROM 30S MOST AREAS MONDAY...TO 50S-60S
TUESDAY...TO WIDESPREAD 70S-80S WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (WARMEST
FRI-SAT). PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD SEE THE WARMEST MARCH
READINGS IN AT LEAST 11 YEARS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 523 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
COMMENTS:
- ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY "MAJOR" CHANGES, THOSE WATCHING CLOSELY
MIGHT NOTE THE FOLLOWING:
1) WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS HAVE INCREASED A BIT FOR MONDAY (GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...STRONGEST EAST/WEAKEST
WEST). OF COURSE, COMPARED TO TODAY STILL A BIG IMPROVEMENT.
2) HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY-SATURDAY HAVE INCREASED A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES (ESPECIALLY SATURDAY), WITH BOTH DAYS NOW
EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY REACH THE LOW-MID 80S (EVEN UPPER 80S FAR
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST). BASED ON LONG-TERM RECORDS AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS (OUR TWO PRIMARY LONG-TERM WEATHER
STATIONS), NOT ONLY COULD HIGH TEMPS ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS AT
LEAST FLIRT WITH (IF NOT BREAK) DAILY RECORDS FOR MARCH
20-21...BUT IT COULD ALSO MARK THE FIRST TIME IN 11 YEARS (SINCE
2015) THAT EITHER SITE HAS REACHED 84 DEGREES OR HIGHER DURING
MARCH! AT LEAST FOR NOW, THE "ALL TIME" MARCH MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 90 DEGREES AT BOTH SITES APPEARS "SAFE".
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH SUN. MARCH 22)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 PM:
OVERALL, TODAY'S WEATHER TURNED OUT PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. IN
RESPONSE TO A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BARRELING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS (AND DEEPENING IN THE PROCESS), A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALLOWED LEGITIMATE HIGH WIND CONDITIONS TO OVERTAKE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS COMMONLY 35-45
MPH/GUSTS 55-65 MPH (AND EVEN A FEW LOCALIZED 70+ MPH GUSTS
INCLUDING HERE AT HASTINGS AIRPORT). AS OF THIS WRITING, A
STRONG ROUGHLY 991 MILLIBAR SURFACE LOW IS WELL TO OUR EAST OVER
IL. ALTHOUGH WE COULD HAVE USED THE MOISTURE (OF COURSE), FROM
AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE WE WERE FORTUNATELY SPARED THE WIDESPREAD
WINTER STORM AND/OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CURRENTLY STILL
IMPACTING MUCH OF IA/MN AND POINTS NORTHEAST. IN OUR CWA, THE
LAST BIT OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES, AND THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS (AS EXPECTED) TOPPED OUT MAINLY AROUND
ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR
CWA, WITH HARDLY ANY SNOW WHATSOEVER FALLING WITHIN OUR
SOUTHWEST HALF. DESPITE THE MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, THE VERY
STRONG WINDS DID CAUSE OCCASIONAL/BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO
AROUND ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES. THERE WERE ALSO AT LEAST
PATCHY/MINOR BLOWING DUST ISSUES, PARTICULARLY IN OUR KS ZONES
BASED ON A FEW REPORTS.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
BY 7 PM, EVEN FLURRIES SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY, AND OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES SNOW-FREE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
DECREASING TO 30-40 MPH BY ROUGHLY 10 PM...AND 25-35 MPH BY
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT, AND 15-25 MPH BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFICIENTLY SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT (THERE
COULD BE SOME TRANSIENT PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS MOVING
THROUGH), BUT EITHER WAY THIS WILL BE A COLD NIGHT BY MID-MARCH
STANDARDS WITH ACTUAL LOW TEMPS AIMED 6-13 DEGREES MOST PLACES,
AND EARLY AM WIND CHILLS MAINLY BETWEEN -5 AND -15 DEGREES
(FORTUNATELY SLIGHTLY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA).
- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAYTIME SKIES, THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY (JUST A LOT LESS WINDY). STILL,
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25 MPH/GUSTS 20-30 MPH (EVEN SOME 35 MPH GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN
THE MID-LATE MORNING)...OVERALL STRONGEST EAST/LIGHTEST WEST.
HIGH TEMPS WERE CHANGED LITTLE, AND ASSUMING THAT MEAGER SNOW
COVER HAS LITTLE IF-ANY COOLING INFLUENCE, EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 30S NORTH AND EAST...TO UPPER 30S-LOW 40S SOUTH AND
WEST.
THE EVENING WILL FEATURE LIGHT WINDS THAT THEN GRADUALLY FLIP
AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP FAST BEFORE STABILIZING LATE, BUT ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING 12-19 DEGREES.
- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY-STRONG, BREEZES TURN SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY,
AIDING A STEADY WARM UP, WITH A SOLID 20-30 DEGREE JUMP EXPECTED
VERSUS MONDAY. HIGHS WERE CHANGED LITTLE...STILL AIMED FROM
MAINLY 50S EAST TO MAINLY 60S (AND EVEN A FEW LOW 70S) WEST. IN
TURN, TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO SEE LOWS HOLD UP CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS MID-UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION WISE, A FEW MODELS HINT THAT A BRIEF ROUND OF SNOW
AND/OR RAIN COULD BRUSH MAINLY OUR FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN FRINGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERS ARE DRY SO THIS IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.
- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXERTS INCREASING INFLUENCE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.,
TEMPS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH HIGHS AIMED INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70 MOST AREAS ON BOTH DAYS, ALONG WITH UNUSUALLY-MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY WELL INTO THE 40S.
- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
AS MENTIONED UP ABOVE, WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST MARCH
TEMPERATURES IN OUR CWA IN AT LEAST 11 YEARS (SINCE 2015)! MOST
AREAS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW-MID 80S, BUT WITH
UPPER 80S MORE COMMON ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (PERHAPS WE
SEE A 90?)
- SUNDAY:
FOR BEING A WEEK OUT, BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT (ALONG WITH A DECENT BLAST OF
NORTH WINDS). AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS ASSURES A COOLER DAY, BUT
JUST HOW COOL? OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGHS NEAR
70, BUT LATEST RAW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MIGHT ONLY
REACH THE 60S (STILL VERY MILD, BUT A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN FROM
SATURDAY).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY KGRI WILL CATCH A FEW MORE HOURS OF LIGHT
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE AT BOTH
KGRI/KEAR. BY FAR THE PRIMARY ISSUE (ESPECIALLY THESE FIRST 6-12
HOURS) ARE VERY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS
COMMONLY 40-47KT. THE SECONDARY ISSUE ARE CEILINGS, AS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN CONTINUED MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST THESE
FIRST 4-6 HOURS, THEREAFTER THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN OUTRIGHT-RETURN TO VFR, OR PERHAPS
INTERMITTENT MVFR THAT MIGHT PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION DETAILS:
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE DAY ARE OCCURRING AT
KGRI WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY THROUGH AROUND
20-21Z (KEAR IS ALREADY MOSTLY DONE WITH SNOW/DOWN TO FLURRIES
AT MOST AND SHOULD STAY VFR VISIBILITY). AS FOR CEILING, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST THESE FIRST 4-6
HOURS. HOWEVER, ALREADY BY 22-00Z THERE ARE QUESTION MARKS, WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING EITHER A SCATTERING OUT OF MVFR, OR A
CEILING LIFTING INTO LOW-END VFR RANGE (SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3K FT.
AGL). REALISTICALLY, IT WILL PROBABLY BE "MOSTLY" VFR BUT WITH
OCCASIONAL/SPORADIC MVFR. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT PREVAILING MVFR
THROUGH 06Z KGRI/00Z KEAR, BUT EVEN BEYOND THAT HAVE MAINTAINED
A LOWER-VFR CEILING THROUGH 15Z...BY WHICH TIME EVEN A LOW-VFR
CEILING SHOULD START SCATTERING OUT. OBVIOUSLY SOME UNCERTAINTY
HERE, SO STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.
- WINDS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS OF
THE PERIOD ARE RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON (SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COMMONLY 30-35KT/GUSTS 45+KT). THEN, THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
A GRADUAL DECREASING GETS UNDERWAY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BY
AROUND 06Z EASING DOWN TO MORE SO 20-25KT/GUSTS AROUND
30KT...THEN BY 12Z SUSTAINED AROUND 15KT/GUSTS 20-25KT. BY MID-
LATE MONDAY MORNING, A SLIGHT UPTICK KICKS IN WITH GUSTS BACK UP
TO AROUND 23-27KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 523 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER FORECAST CONDITIONS HAVE AN UNCANNY WAY
OF GETTING "WORSE" (EITHER STRONGER WINDS OR LOWER RH) AS THEY
DRAW CLOSER IN TIME, AT LEAST FOR NOW WE HAVE NO AFTERNOONS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK THAT APPEAR TO MEET OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS (MEANING OVERLAP OF BOTH WIND GUSTS 25+ MPH + RH 20%
OR LOWER). THAT BEING SAID, MOST AFTERNOONS WILL LIKELY FEATURE
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS...WHEREVER WIND
GUSTS OF 20+ MPH COINCIDE WITH RH 25% OR LOWER.
WE'LL HAVE TO CLOSELY EXAMINE EACH DAY AS THEY GET CLOSER IN
TIME, BUT FOCUSING SPECIFICALLY HERE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON:
- DESPITE SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES, RH IS FORECAST TO DROP
AS LOW AS 15-25% ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OVERALL
LOWEST NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 183).
- ALTHOUGH OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST DID CREEP UPWARD A BIT,
FORTUNATELY ANY NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 25+ MPH ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE AFTERNOON RH REALLY DROPS OFF IN
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
- THIS COULD BE A "CLOSE CALL" HOWEVER, AND IT LATER FORECASTS
INCREASE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS EVEN A FEW MPH IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES, BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD MATERIALIZE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ041-
048-049-063-064.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
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