943
FXUS63 KGID 161804
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
104 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TODAY...BUT MUCH WARMER DAYS WILL BE HERE SOON.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY,
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND ISLAND.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AS OF 1230AM, SATELLITE SHOWS A BROKEN AREA OF STRATUS OVER
NORTH- CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE TEENS, AND
WILL LIKELY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST. THE COLD START TO
THE DAY WON'T GET MUCH BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON, THANKS TO
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO PERHAPS NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTHWEST....ROUGHLY 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH.
THIS BLAST OF WINTER WILL NOT LAST LONG, THOUGH. THE PATTERN
QUICKLY FLIPS ON TUESDAY, AND SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURN
TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS COULD FALL AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTER IMPACTS IS LOW AT THIS POINT, ALTHOUGH
IT MAY SET UP A VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN
AND WESTERN NEB/KANSAS. AREAS AROUND HIGHWAY 81 MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 50 DEGREES, WHILE SOME AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY REACH THE 70S.
BEYOND THAT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLE WARMTH FOR
WEDNESDAY- SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAYS...LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS WE'VE SEEN SINCE AT LEAST
MID- NOVEMBER. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ARE IN THE 82-86 DEGREE RANGE, AND AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THEY WILL BE BROKEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND GOOD VSBYS
THROUGHOUT.
EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS...THROUGH 17/01Z. THEREAFTER,
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE SHIFTING AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY BY LATE MORNING, BUT REMAIN LIGHTER (GUSTS
CLOSER TO 20 KTS) THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. CIGS WILL LOWER
SOME OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY TO AROUND 5-8KFT BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT MAR 16 2026
TODAY WILL REMAIN COLD, BUT THE AIRMASS IS ALSO VERY DRY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO DIP AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT (LOWEST
WEST). WINDS WILL BE ON A GENERAL DECREASING TREND, BUT GUSTS
20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS, BUT SOME ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM KEARNEY TO HEBRON.
THERE WILL BE A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, BUT
WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS REACH THE 70S AND HUMIDITY DIP
BELOW 20 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED, BUT A SURGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY WIND COULD RESULT IN
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. WINDS DO
NOT LOOK OVERLY CONCERNING FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL
MAY TREND A BIT STRONGER FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THESE DAYS ALSO
WILL FEATURE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. AS SUCH,
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE FRIDAY/SATURDAY FOR POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039-046-061-073-074-082>084.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ060-072.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005-017.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ROSSI
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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