754
FXUS63 KGID 170741
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
241 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO KEARNEY TO ORD.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
- SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA TODAY, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
DOWNWARD, LARGELY THANKS TO THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. A
FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER OUR EAST, AND A WARM FRONT ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY.
SOME SPOTS NEAR/EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 MAY REMAIN THE 40S, WHILE
AREAS NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 MAY SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 70
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START THE DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH, GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR-TERM MODELS
STILL INDICATE A SHARPER SHIFT TO STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ~3-4PM.
THERE IS CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, AND RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR A "COOLDOWN" (STILL PROBABLY NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
STILL LOOKS SPOTTY...AT BEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A CHILLY MARCH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, A COLD AIRMASS LINGERED BEHIND YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE ALSO NOT HELPED OUT WIND
CHILLS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
AIRMASS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY TO HEBRON, WITH CURRENT RH VALUES IN THE
RANGE OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THEY
SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THIS
FRONT BEING MOSTLY DRY FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH ONLY THE
SMALLEST CHANCES (15-25%) FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES TUESDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASED
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO JUSTIFY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
AREAS PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 EARLIER TODAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, EXPECT FURTHER WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THANKFULLY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR
THE SURFACE APPEARS ON THE WEAKER SIDE, SO VERY STRONG WINDS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. THAT SAID, WITH DRY FUELS, LOW RH VALUES AND
WARM TEMPERATURES, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK.
AFTER A 3 DAY PERIOD OF NEAR/RECORD WARMTH, EXPECT A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO HELP KNOCK DOWN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS (40+ MPH) NEXT SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LOCALLY WITH THIS FRONT
AND ENSEMBLES LOOK FAIRLY BLEAK, PRECIPITATION WISE, THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 10.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE (95%) VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CLOUD BASES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6-8KFT.
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE, AND WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHTER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND A PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE
AFTER AROUND 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR TODAY WILL OCCUR IN AREAS
NEAR AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO KEARNEY TO ORD AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SHIFT,
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST 20-30 MPH, WITH MORE
PERSISTENT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARRIVING AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.
HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS WHAT WE'VE SEEN ON PREVIOUS DAYS,
AND PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY SEE HUMIDITY REMAIN 25 PERCENT OR
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CAN HANG AROUND.
THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT DECREASES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE POTENTIAL RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LOW HUMIDITY, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 20 MPH ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/KANSAS.
STRONGER WINDS THEN POTENTIALLY RETURN FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MORE RED-FLAG CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S LATER THIS WEEK, A FEW RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THURSDAY MARCH 19 FORECAST HIGH RECORD MAX/YEAR
HASTINGS 79 84 (1921)
GRAND ISLAND 79 86 (1921)
FRIDAY MARCH 20 FORECAST HIGH RECORD MAX/YEAR
HASTINGS 84 82 (1939)
GRAND ISLAND 84 84 (1921)
SATURDAY MARCH 21 FORECAST HIGH RECORD MAX/YEAR
HASTINGS 87 87 (1910)
GRAND ISLAND 86 83 (1988)
IN ADDITION, RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FRIDAY MARCH 20 FORECAST LOW RECORD WARM MIN/YEAR
HASTINGS 46 46 (2011)
GRAND ISLAND 46 50 (1921)
SATURDAY MARCH 21 FORECAST LOW RECORD WARM MIN/YEAR
HASTINGS 48 47 (2012)
GRAND ISLAND 48 54 (1911)
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR HASTINGS DATE BACK TO 1907 AND THEY
DATE BACK TO 1895 FOR GRAND ISLAND.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082-083.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...MANGELS
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
CLIMATE...MANGELS/ROSSI
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