740
FXUS63 KGID 201115
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST TO END
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN EVEN MONTHLY RECORDS
ARE AT RISK.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL A CONCERN FOR
SATURDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
CURRENTLY...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REIGN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE DESERT SW/NORTHWARD EXTENDING RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ALONG THE EAST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING THAT OUTSIDE OF A FEW PATCHES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE SURFACE,
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, WITH WINDS
EITHER GENERALLY WSWRLY OR VARIABLE.
TODAY...
OVERALL NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NWRLY
FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO PUSH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
USHER IN A SWITCH TO MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND WHILE MOST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT TOPPING SPEEDS OUT AROUND 15 MPH, CAN'T RULE OUT AT
LEAST A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 MPH DURING THE EARL-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS, THEN TAPERING OFF LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON TEMPERATURE RECORD POTENTIAL.
FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE EXPECTED WINDS LOOK TO KEEP
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING, ANYWHERE THOSE
WINDS CAN GUST CLOSER TO 20 MPH, EVEN JUST OCCASIONALLY,
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...WITH RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNING A BIT MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO START THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE MAIN RIDGING FLATTENED A TOUCH BY DISTURBANCES
CROSSING NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER. THE THERMAL RIDGING AXIS LOOKS
TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE REGION...WITH MIXING
POTENTIAL AIDED BY WINDS TURNING MORE WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT'S NOT JUST DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING THREATENED FOR MAR. 21ST, THE ALL-TIME
MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURE IS AT RISK AS WELL AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE 90S AREA-WIDE...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
RECORD DETAILS.
THE EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 90S, COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS, IS FORECAST TO BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
PLUMMETING INTO AT LEAST THE LOW TEENS...SOME VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...THEN A COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
IS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUN AM...WHICH WILL BRING A SWITCH TO
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS A NOTABLY COOLER END TO THE
WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. THE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...THE COOLER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE MID-UPPER 20 TO MID 30 PERCENT
RANGE.
MONDAY AND ON...
OVERALL NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...WHICH
REMAINS LARGELY DRY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE A BIT OF A
ROLLER COASTER RIDE...CLIMBING INTO THE 70S-80S BY WEDNESDAY,
THEN POTENTIALLY BACK IN THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE BEEN
RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS HOURLY READINGS, WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WELL WITHIN REACH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING ALOFT, EXPECT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW (MAYBE 1-2 DEGREES
COOLER BASED ON 850MB TEMPS), FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES SURGING
ON SATURDAY AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN FACT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SET NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES - BY SEVERAL DEGREES - FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
MARCH!
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS
AS WELL, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY - BUT FULLY EXPECT THIS TO EVENTUALLY
BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING SOMETIME EITHER LATER TONIGHT
OR ON FRIDAY.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY, EXPECT A FAIRLY NOTABLE
DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S, OR
STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. IN FACT, EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AGAIN
BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH A POTENTIAL RETURN TO ADDITIONAL RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
IN SHORT, UNSEASONABLE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MARCH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH
LITTLE SIGNAL IN MODEL ENSEMBLES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCE OR CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...ANY CLOUD COVER PASSING THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...TURNING MORE NNW BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE IN NATURE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
POTENTIAL RECORD WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
THURSDAY MARCH 19 NEW RECORD HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD
HASTINGS 86 84 (1921)
GRAND ISLAND 87 86 (1921)
FRIDAY MARCH 20 FORECAST HIGH RECORD MAX/YEAR
HASTINGS 85 82 (1939)
GRAND ISLAND 85 84 (1921)
SATURDAY MARCH 21 FORECAST HIGH RECORD MAX/YEAR
HASTINGS 94 87 (1910)
GRAND ISLAND 94 83 (1988)
***NOTE: THE ALL-TIME MARCH MAX TEMPERATURE IS 90 DEGREES
AT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS***
POTENTIAL RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY MARCH 20 FORECAST LOW RECORD WARM MIN/YEAR
HASTINGS 47 46 (2011)
GRAND ISLAND 46 50 (1921)
SATURDAY MARCH 21 FORECAST LOW RECORD WARM MIN/YEAR
HASTINGS 49 47 (2012)
GRAND ISLAND 48 54 (1911)
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR HASTINGS DATE BACK TO 1907 AND RECORDS
FOR GRAND ISLAND DATE BACK TO 1895.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...NWS HASTINGS
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