853
FXUS63 KGID 201801
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST TO END
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN EVEN MONTHLY RECORDS
ARE AT RISK.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL A CONCERN FOR
SATURDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
CURRENTLY...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REIGN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE DESERT SW/NORTHWARD EXTENDING RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ALONG THE EAST COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWING THAT OUTSIDE OF A FEW PATCHES OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE SURFACE,
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, WITH WINDS
EITHER GENERALLY WSWRLY OR VARIABLE.
TODAY...
OVERALL NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NWRLY
FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO PUSH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
USHER IN A SWITCH TO MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND WHILE MOST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT TOPPING SPEEDS OUT AROUND 15 MPH, CAN'T RULE OUT AT
LEAST A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 MPH DURING THE EARL-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS, THEN TAPERING OFF LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON TEMPERATURE RECORD POTENTIAL.
FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE EXPECTED WINDS LOOK TO KEEP
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING, ANYWHERE THOSE
WINDS CAN GUST CLOSER TO 20 MPH, EVEN JUST OCCASIONALLY,
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE THERE.
THIS WEEKEND...
DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...WITH RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNING A BIT MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO START THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE MAIN RIDGING FLATTENED A TOUCH BY DISTURBANCES
CROSSING NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER. THE THERMAL RIDGING AXIS LOOKS
TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE REGION...WITH MIXING
POTENTIAL AIDED BY WINDS TURNING MORE WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT'S NOT JUST DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING THREATENED FOR MAR. 21ST, THE ALL-TIME
MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURE IS AT RISK AS WELL AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE 90S AREA-WIDE...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
RECORD DETAILS.
THE EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 90S, COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS, IS FORECAST TO BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
PLUMMETING INTO AT LEAST THE LOW TEENS...SOME VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...THEN A COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
IS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUN AM...WHICH WILL BRING A SWITCH TO
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS A NOTABLY COOLER END TO THE
WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. THE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...THE COOLER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE MID-UPPER 20 TO MID 30 PERCENT
RANGE.
MONDAY AND ON...
OVERALL NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...WHICH
REMAINS LARGELY DRY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE A BIT OF A
ROLLER COASTER RIDE...CLIMBING INTO THE 70S-80S BY WEDNESDAY,
THEN POTENTIALLY BACK IN THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE BEEN
RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS HOURLY READINGS, WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WELL WITHIN REACH.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING ALOFT, EXPECT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW (MAYBE 1-2 DEGREES
COOLER BASED ON 850MB TEMPS), FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES SURGING
ON SATURDAY AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN FACT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SET NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES - BY SEVERAL DEGREES - FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
MARCH!
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS
AS WELL, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY - BUT FULLY EXPECT THIS TO EVENTUALLY
BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING SOMETIME EITHER LATER TONIGHT
OR ON FRIDAY.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY, EXPECT A FAIRLY NOTABLE
DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S, OR
STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. IN FACT, EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AGAIN
BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH A POTENTIAL RETURN TO ADDITIONAL RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
IN SHORT, UNSEASONABLE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO
FINISH OUT THE MONTH OF MARCH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH
LITTLE SIGNAL IN MODEL ENSEMBLES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCE OR CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY-HIGH CONFIDENCE (AND INCREDIBLY "QUIET")
PERIOD REGARDING VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY (ONLY LIMITED PASSING
HIGH CIRRUS) AND SEASONABLY-LIGHT WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME UNDER 10KT AND EVEN OCCASIONAL
"HIGHER" GUSTS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...LARGELY UNDER 15KT.
WIND DIRECTION WILL PREVAIL GENERALLY NORTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE (WITH VERY LIGHT SPEEDS) THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT WITHIN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...THEN FINALLY
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING INTO VERY EARLY AFTERNOON.
A TOUCH OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD MATERIALIZE
MAINLY 07-11Z, BUT WITH SHEAR MAGNITUDE WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2K
FT. AGL NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25KT, THIS DOES NOT
MEET TAF-INCLUSION-CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
** RECORD-BREAKING/HISTORIC HEAT FOR THIS EARLY IN THE
CALENDAR YEAR LIKELY SATURDAY **
AN INCREDIBLE (HONESTLY HISTORIC FOR MARCH) STRETCH OF HEAT
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH BOTH GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS
(THE 2 NWS-MAINTAINED WEATHER STATIONS FOR WHICH WE OFFICIAL RECORD
EVENT REPORTS/RERS) LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ON SATURDAY THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH! IN ADDITION,
WE MIGHT EVEN BREAK RECORDS FOR EARLIEST-ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF 91+
DEGREES BY AT LEAST 2 WEEKS! VARIOUS DETAILS FOLLOW, ORGANIZED BY
SITE:
-- GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI...TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE TO 1896)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS | LATEST FORECAST
MARCH 20 (FRI): 84 IN 1921 | 88
MARCH 21 (SAT): 83 IN 1988 | 94
- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 DEGREES...OCCURRED NINE TIMES, MOST RECENTLY MARCH 16, 2015
- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 DEGREES......90 ON MARCH 16, 2015
91 DEGREES......91 ON APRIL 4, 1929
92 DEGREES......92 ON APRIL 12, 2022
93-94 DEGREES...94 ON APRIL 15, 2002
95-98 DEGREES...98 ON APRIL 20, 1902
99 DEGREES......99 ON MAY 14, 1941 AND 102 ON MAY 14, 2013
100 DEGREES.....102 ON MAY 14, 2013
-- HASTINGS, NE (HSI...TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1907)
- CURRENT DAILY RECORDS | LATEST FORECAST
MARCH 20 (FRI): 82 IN 1939 | 88
MARCH 21 (SAT): 87 IN 1910 | 94
- CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
90 DEGREES...MARCH 23, 1910
- CURRENT EARLIEST ANNUAL OCCURRENCE OF VARIOUS TEMP THRESHOLDS:
90 DEGREES......90 ON MARCH 23, 1910
91-92 DEGREES...92 ON APRIL 3, 1929
93-95 DEGREES...95 ON APRIL 15, 2002
96 DEGREES......96 ON APRIL 23, 1989
97-98 DEGREES...98 ON MAY 6, 1916
99-100 DEGREES..100 ON MAY 26, 2012
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...NWS HASTINGS
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