391
FXUS63 KGID 250831
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
331 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80S-90S ARE FORECAST TODAY, WELL
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID
50S-NEAR 60. HIGH TEMP RECORDS FOR BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS ARE AT RISK.
- THESE HOT TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM NOON-8PM.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE AREA (EXCEEDING 40 MPH POSSIBLE)...AS
WELL AS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 70S-80S BY SUNDAY.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE DAY OF
GREATEST CONCERN OUTSIDE OF TODAY IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS TODAY BASED ON RECENT HI-RES
GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS LINGERING A BIT LONGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT, HAVE MORE OF THE AREA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, SO EXPANDED THE
RED FLAG WARNING AREA TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT FOR ROOKS, OSBORNE, AND MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
CURRENTLY...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REIGN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKING ALOFT...UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE
DATA SHOW CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, STILL SITTING JUST EAST OF THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CONUS, BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST,
WHILE A DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PAC NW.
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, MOST SPOTS ARE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE SURFACE PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE, WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING OUR WINDS SSRLY, WITH MOST
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
TODAY...
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY REMAIN WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH RECORD HIGHS AT RISK (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE). OVERALL HASN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES
IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH REMAINS A DRY ONE, WITH
MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NWRLY FLOW. THE
CURRENT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE SWITCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
OUR NORTH PUSHES A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS BOUNDARY DOESN'T USHER IN COOLER AIR...IF ANYTHING
THE MORE WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS HELPS
MIXING POTENTIAL/TAPPING INTO THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 50S-NEAR 60...AND FORECAST
HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. A DRIER
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S IS FORECAST TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
DROPPING INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE (LOWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF). MAIN QUESTION MARK AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GO
IS WITH WINDS/GUSTS...AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP, AND DID ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FROM
NOON- 8PM. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THURSDAY...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PAC NW IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO KEEP PUSHING EAST WITH TIME, FURTHER
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS TONIGHT ON
THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST, WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE LOW-END (20-30 PERCENT)
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST
WITH THE COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY, ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS BE PRETTY LIGHT. OF MORE
NOTABLE IMPACT FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS THE STRONGER
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION...USHERING IN STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. CURRENT MODEL
TIMING HAS THE FRONT ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES AROUND
12Z...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS CWA- WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVING
A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE, ESPECIALLY
FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE MID 60S NORTH (EARLY DAY PASSAGE) TO LOW 80S SOUTH (LATER
PASSAGE). SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT.
FRIDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING THURSDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE IMPACTS
FRIDAY THE MOST...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO 'ONLY' TOP OUT NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 50S. THOUGH AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS IN,
ALLOWING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...LIGHTER WINDS LOOK
TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A WARMER AIRMASS BUILDING BACK IN...BRINGING HIGHS INTO
THE 60S FOR SATURDAY AND 70S-80S FOR SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT, THE
NEXT DAY WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY.
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BRING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO THE
REGION...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS POINT IT'S HARD TO
HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE, AS SOME MODELS
ARE MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE THAN OTHERS...BUT AT LEAST CHANCES
ARE OUT THERE. HIGHS IN THE 70S-80S LOOK TO CONTINUE ON INTO
MON-TUE, POTENTIALLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE 60S AND
70S, WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE
BREEZY AT TIMES GUSTING 20-25MPH. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES OVERLAP WITH BREEZY WINDS (MOST
LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 183). LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY...
ALOFT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RECORD WARM MARCH DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AIDED BY
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE (WARMING) WINDS. GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS COULD
THREATEN DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES: SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SINK INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY
BELOW 20MPH, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THOUGH A WINDOW OF NEAR-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY STILL DEVELOP (MAINLY ALONG/NW OF TRI-
CITIES). A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GREATER SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST (UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 80S
SOUTH). GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF/NAMNEST/RRFS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 40-
45MPH AT TIMES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
ELEVATED-NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES/HIGHER RH BEHIND THE
FRONT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES MAKE THE GROUND WILL BE VERY LIGHT (A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS).
FRIDAY ONWARDS...
ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY KEEPS TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. DECREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE THE DRIER
AIRMASS DROPPING AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW 20%. RIDGING BUILDS
BACK OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S, CLIMBING TO THE 70S/80S ON SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
BREEZY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER RESULTS IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY. SATURDAY
OVERALL LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW RH AT THIS TIME. POP CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN SHIFT, THOUGH MODEL SPREAD BRINGS
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF ANY POPS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGRI AND KEAR UNTIL AROUND 12Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY 12Z THEN WESTERLY BY 15Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z THEN WILL WEAKEN BY
00Z THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN A
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN DAYS OF CONCERN BEING
TODAY AND SATURDAY.
FOR TODAY...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S-LOW
90S, WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPS AT RISK AT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS. CURRENT FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 30S...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 281. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY,
USHERING IN A SWITCH TO MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE
BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. THIS MORE WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL AID IN MIXING POTENTIAL AND HELP TAP
INTO THAT WARMER AIRMASS ALOFT. IT'S NOT A STRONG BOUNDARY, BUT
GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
RIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...SO ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH JUST HOW FAR INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THOSE GUSTS
WILL LINGER...AS MODELS SUGGEST DIMINISHING SPEEDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FROM NOON-8PM TODAY...BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON TRENDS TO SEE IF AN EXPANSION IS NEEDED.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...ANY FIRES THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY, FOLKS WILL
NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT SWITCH TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THOUGH WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY, COOLER AIR
IS ALSO BUILDING IN WITH THE FRONT...AND CURRENT FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE.
FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LIGHTER WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.
THIS WEEKEND...WARMER AIR STARTS WORKING ITS WAY BACK ONTO THE
REGION, BRINGING HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY AND 70S-80S
FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER ON SUNDAY, DEWPOINTS
ARE ALSO INCREASING...THE STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS, AND
THUS GREATER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ARE ACTUALLY ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR/BELOW 20 PERCENT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
POTENTIALLY GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY, WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PEAKING TODAY, MARCH 25TH. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THREATENED AT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.
FOR GRAND ISLAND:
FORECAST HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 25TH: 88
RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 25TH: 88, SET IN 1910
FOR HASTINGS:
FORECAST HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 25TH: 88
RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 25TH: 85, SET IN 1956
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007.
UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...SCHULDT
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...NWS HASTINGS
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