079
FXUS63 KGID 252359
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
EACH DAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THURSDAY.
- A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING MEASURABLE.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF IMPRESSIVE WARMTH RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, DEEP MIXING IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD-BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MANY AREAS WILL TOP 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD FALL OF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING
BACK TO THE SOUTH. STEADY SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. IN FACT, OUR THURSDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES (50S TO NEAR 60) ARE VERY CLOSE TO OUR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH.
THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY HAS TRENDED A TOUCH SLOWER, WHICH
MEANS THAT SOUTHEASTERN AREAS COULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE 80S AND
POSSIBLY NEAR 90 BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS ALSO
HEIGHTENS THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT, AND THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 9AM IN THE NORTH AND 3PM IN
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, STIFF
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE, WITH GUSTS LIKELY AROUND 40 MPH.
SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT THE CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IS VERY
LOW. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY MISS OUT ON THIS AS WELL. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT.
NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT BREEZY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. FRIDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S...WHICH IS ACTUALLY JUST
A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
THE PATTERN FLIPS BACK TO WARM THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON SATURDAY, AIDING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S, AND WIDESPREAD 80S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (MARCH 31 INTO APRIL 1).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND GOOD VSBYS ANTICIPATED.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 8-10
KTS AFT 06/06Z WHEN THE LLJ BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST LLWS AT BOTH TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND
26/13Z...WHEN THE LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AND BRING GUSTY
N WINDS TO NEAR 35 KTS TO BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION OR LOWER CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
REST OF TODAY:
DEEP MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AT LEAST PERIODIC GUSTS
TO NEAR 25 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RECORD WARMTH HAS RESULTED
IN HUMIDITY NEAR 10% IN MANY AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM.
THURSDAY:
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FRONT HAS TRENDED SLOWER, WHICH WILL
ALLOW SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TO WARM INTO THE 80S, WITH HUMIDITY
BRIEFLY NEAR 20% AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
RESULT IN RISING RH VALUES, BUT INCREASING GUSTS WILL KEEP THE
FIRE DANGER RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
PHILLIPSBURG TO HASTINGS TO GENEVA.
FRIDAY:
OVERALL, THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY IS LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS (BUT NOT ZERO, EITHER). NORTH WINDS WILL BE ON A
DECREASING TREND, BUT SOME GUSTS NEAR 25-30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE
(ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON). THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER...BUT ALSO QUITE DRY. DESPITE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S, HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DIP
TO 15-20% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SATURDAY:
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH, GUSTING 30-40 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVELY WARM, BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 60S, WHICH WILL DRIVE HUMIDITY
DOWN INTO THE 15-20% RANGE.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80S) RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HELP PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER ISSUES, BUT AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ075>077-084>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ROSSI
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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