204
FXUS63 KGID 270700
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
200 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY-281. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 25-35MPH MIXED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE-
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM TO 10PM SATURDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO UPPER 70S AND 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN DROP HIGHS BACK TO THE 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- BEYOND A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THIS
MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
THE NEXT NOTABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-50%) RETURN
WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NON-ZERO POPS ADDITIONALLY
RANGE ACROSS THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING REFLECT SOME MORE
ISOLATED SCATTERED AREAS OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. THESE SHOWERS, GIVEN
THEIR BRIEF DURATIONS AND LIMITED COVERAGE, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WILL TAKE A NOTABLE DIP WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BLOW
BETWEEN 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH. THESE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AS RISING PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRIER CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF HWY-281 (WHERE THE GUSTIEST WINDS
SHOULD LIE). A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL
9PM FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF HWY-281. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL GRADUALLY FLIP TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT PERIOD AS AN AROUND 1036MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. AN
UPSTREAM NORTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL TROUGH/DISTURBANCE WILL ONCE AGAIN
STIR UP EVEN GUSTIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BLOW BETWEEN 25-35MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-50MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM 10AM TO 10PM ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
BEYOND THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REBOUND THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS RETURN
COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL WARMING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THE 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WEEKEND AS A SEMI-ZONAL TO WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BAT AWAY ANY REAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY,
ONLY SLOWLY DECREASING TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS
WILL MISS OUT COMPLETELY.
ON FRIDAY, NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S.
THIS COOLDOWN WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG, THOUGH. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES (WARMEST WEST).
WINDS BACK OFF A BIT ON SUNDAY-MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REACH THE 80S UNDERNEATH A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A SHORTWAVE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, COVERAGE OF RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY SPOTTY ON
GLOBAL MODELS.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. WE REMAIN CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
THAT THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD RESULT IN SOME BENEFICIAL
MOISTURE FOR THE AREA, BUT LATEST LONG-TERM ENSEMBLES ARE
TRENDING A BIT DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
WEEKS OF APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MIX OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, MAYBE A SPRINKLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
AND GOOD VSBYS THROUGHOUT.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...TO 35 KTS...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX BEHIND
THURSDAYS COLD FRONT. THANKS TO GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, LLWS DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE VWP IS ONLY INDICATING 30-40
KT WINDS AT 1KFT. WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE A BIT AFT 27/17Z AS DESPITE THE WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT, MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS 20KTS+ DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN BY EARLY
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT (SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEEN DEWPOINTS) PAIRED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 50S
TO LOW 60S WILL LEAVE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS 10-20%
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHTENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-
35MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST
OF HWY-281. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
BE MET TODAY WILL BE FOR AREAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED ACROSS AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING.
SATURDAY: WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY (60S TO LOW 70S) WITH SLOW TO
RECOVER DEWPOINTS (TEENS TO LOW 20S) WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP TO AS LOW AS 10-20%. EVEN STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS (25-35MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40-50MPH) WILL
MATERIALIZE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 10AM AND 10PM
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: THOUGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
THROUGH THE PERIOD, INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (30S TO 50S
DEWPOINTS) WILL IN TURN KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS (>20%)
FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WINDS
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY (GUSTS <20MPH). ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAR LESS LIKELY.
TUESDAY: THE NEXT POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA MAY COME TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK
BACK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ040-041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ006-007-018-019.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ROSSI
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
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