306
FXUS63 KGID 280546
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON SATURDAY. GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
- COMBINED WITH THE WIND, CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- EXCEPTIONAL WARMTH RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
- LOW CHANCES (20-40%) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURN TUESDAY-
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY (70%
CHANCE), AND THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR GUSTS OVER 50
MPH. SATURDAY WILL TREND WARMER...BUT NOT PARTICULARLY WARM BY
RECENT STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
(WARMEST IN THE WEST) ARE EXPECTED.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS COULD EVEN MAKE
ANOTHER RUN AT 90 ON MONDAY.
PROBABLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED 15-20 DEGREES COOLER FOR TUESDAY DUE TO FASTER TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. PREVIOUSLY, THE CONSENSUS WAS FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE STUCK IN
THE 50S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
ISN'T LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY. THE
PROBABILITY FOR EVEN 0.25" IS RELATIVELY LOW AT ONLY 20-30%, AND
IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SPOTS MISS OUT ENTIRELY. A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT NO WINTER
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LOW POPS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT THIS PERIOD IS TRENDING
DRIER AS WE WILL POTENTIALLY BE IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS. AFTER A
COOL DAY ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SE, AND WILL
STEADILY PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT A NOTICEABLE JUMP
IN SPEEDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG -
SUSTAINED 25-30KT, GUSTS AROUND 40KT, OUT OF THE S - THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET, BUT STILL
REMAIN BREEZY...AND DESPITE THE BREEZY SURFACE WINDS SAT NIGHT,
EXPECT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO LEAD TO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR BEGINNING AROUND 02-03Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE MAIN DAY OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER IS
SATURDAY. LOW HUMIDITY TODAY WILL HAVE PRETTY POOR RECOVERY
OVERNIGHT. HUMIDITY MAY ONLY BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE AT SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS ALREADY STARTING TO INCREASE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, WIDESPREAD GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
HUMIDITY WILL ULTIMATELY DIP TO THE 10-15% RANGE IN MOST AREAS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
SATURDAY EVENING, BUT WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK OFF TO ONLY
10-20 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 80S. RETURNING
MOISTURE COULD HELP EASTERN AREAS FROM SEEING CRITICAL
HUMIDITY, BUT THE WESTERN HALF WILL REMAIN VERY VERY DRY.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN ON
SATURDAY, ONLY RESULTING AN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
THE FRONT HAS TRENDED FASTER FOR TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY,
BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL HOPEFULLY
PREVENT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...THIES
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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