740
FXUS63 KGID 281722
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40-45MPH ON TOP OF
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVOKE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
- A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FROM 9AM UNTIL
10PM TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR SUNDAY AND THE 80S FOR MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY WILL THEN DROP HIGHS BACK TO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- OFF-AND-ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER BETWEEN THE PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
(20-40%) LIES TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDS RECENTLY TURNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF A MIDWEST BOUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER,
WILL SOON BE EXPECTED TO SPEED UP. WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS MORNING
AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40-45MPH. THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TODAY HAVE FALLEN IN
LINE AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAVE
COMPRESSED THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS (SINGLE DIGIT TO LOW 20S DEWPOINTS) PAIRED WITH THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIDEPSREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN PLACE AREAWIDE TODAY FROM 9AM
TO 10PM. FORE MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS, MUCH LIGHTER FOR SUNDAY (GUSTS <20 MPH) WILL
MAINLY KEEP DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE SOUTH, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALOFT, A
BUILDING MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL HELP
SHIELD THE AREA FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION, ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, WILL ASSIST IN RAISING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR SUNDAY. DESPITE A FEW
CLOUDS BREAKING INTO THE AREA MONDAY, THE CONTINUATION OF THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD LET HIGHS ONE
AGAIN STICK AROUND IN THE 80S.
THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL NOT COME UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PAIRED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHAKES UP THE
PATTERN FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, SPECIFIC
DETAILS REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE BEST
WINDOWS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY (70%
CHANCE), AND THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR GUSTS OVER 50
MPH. SATURDAY WILL TREND WARMER...BUT NOT PARTICULARLY WARM BY
RECENT STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
(WARMEST IN THE WEST) ARE EXPECTED.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS COULD EVEN MAKE
ANOTHER RUN AT 90 ON MONDAY.
PROBABLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED 15-20 DEGREES COOLER FOR TUESDAY DUE TO FASTER TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. PREVIOUSLY, THE CONSENSUS WAS FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE STUCK IN
THE 50S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
ISN'T LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY. THE
PROBABILITY FOR EVEN 0.25" IS RELATIVELY LOW AT ONLY 20-30%, AND
IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SPOTS MISS OUT ENTIRELY. A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT NO WINTER
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LOW POPS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT THIS PERIOD IS TRENDING
DRIER AS WE WILL POTENTIALLY BE IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS. AFTER A
COOL DAY ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 35-45MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AROUND 00Z, WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, FALLING TO AROUND 20KTS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE DUE TO WINDS REMAINING STRONG ALOFT. THE
LLWS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE
LLJ/STRONGER WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BECOMING SCT-BKN
OVERNIGHT. SKIES CLEAR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT OVERNIGHT (SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS) HAS LEFT
RH VALUES STRUGGLING TO ESCAPE THE 30-45% RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS RESULT, RH VALUES ARE SOON EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO CRITICAL
LEVELS (<20%) LATER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION WINDS WILL SOON ALSO
GUST ABOVE 20MPH JUST AFTER SUNRISE, PROMPTING AN EARLIER THAN USUAL
START TO TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNING (9AM). TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO
THE 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEEN TO LOW 20S DEWPOINTS
WILL LET RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT AS LOW AS 10-20%. THE WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH WILL MAINLY BLOW BETWEEN 20-30MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
GUSTS PEAKING BETWEEN 40-45MPH. SLOW TO RECOVER RH VALUES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH LINGERING 20-35MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
EVENING HOURS WILL PROMPT THE NEED TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10PM.
LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY (GUSTS < 20MPH) SHOULD LIMIT THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY STILL NEAR AND
REACH CRITICAL VALUES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY-
281. A HANDFUL OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE MET IN A FEW SELECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...DAVIS
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
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