092
FXUS63 KGID 310656
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
156 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S AND 60S FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT FOR THE WEEK WEDNESDAY (MID 40S TO MID 50S).
- THE COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
- BETWEEN 0.25-1" OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN THE PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS WILL LIE TOWARDS
THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS.
- A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, THOUGH LIKELY SMALLER IN
COVERAGE (20-50% CHANCE), COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST.
- TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LOOK TO RANGE THE MID
50S TO LOW 70S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A COLD FRONT, SOON TO PASS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL NE/KS THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY STEER WINDS TO THE NORTH FOR THE DAY. WINDS
SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS BLOWING BETWEEN 20-
35MPH AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40-50MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES, STARTING THE DAY OFF
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, WILL ONLY WARM A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S. GENERALLY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONCENTRATED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA (PLACES THE
FRONT REACHES FIRST) WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SOON APPROACH AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TAKES A DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK. THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE STORM COULD POP OUT AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING (<20%
CHANCE), THE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGHLY LIMITED.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT REACH THE LOCAL AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INITIALLY START OUT MORE SCATTERED AND SPREAD
OUT BEFORE LATER CONGEALING INTO A LARGE CLUSTER BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THE BIGGER CHANGES THIS FORECAST
CYCLE HAS BEEN THE DECREASED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (LOW 30S TO MID 40S) COULD PREVENT MOST LOCATIONS,
OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED NORTHWESTERN CONCENTRATED AREAS, FROM
TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW.
THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION BANDS SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL, THE "WETTEST" LOCATIONS (0.5-1" OF
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION) WILL BE MORE SO CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST COULD MAY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN 0.25-0.5"
OF PRECIPITATION.
BESIDES THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT FOR THE WEEK WEDNESDAY (MID
40S TO MID 50S). HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL LOOK TO REBOUND TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 70S. THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
ORIENTED WEDNESDAY WITH DIRECTIONS TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 25MPH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
DESPITE WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS, THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS
IS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR-RECORD WARMTH TODAY. THE
CURRENT RECORDS ARE 89 AND 90 DEGREES AT HASTINGS AND GRAND
ISLAND, RESPECTIVELY. WE MAY COME UP JUST SHORT OF THESE
RECORDS, BUT IT IS STILL A VERY IMPRESSIVE WARMUP GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY LOW- LEVEL AIR.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY (ROUGHLY 3AM IN THE NORTH,
AND NEAR 8AM IN THE SOUTH). GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH ARE VERY
LIKELY, AND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (40% CHANCE). TUESDAY
WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COOLDOWN, SO HUMIDITY MAY
STILL DIP TO AROUND 25% IN SOME AREAS, RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW) INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH MIDDAY, BUT ALL AREAS ARE FAVORED TO SEE AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. FOR MOST AREAS, PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE COLD RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW. BUT NORTHWEST AREAS COULD SEE SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION (20-30% FOR 0.5"+ IN GRASSY AREAS).
THERE IS SOME CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM IN FAIRLY BENEFICIAL PRECIP
TOTALS. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THE 00Z ENSEMBLE SUITE SHOWS
A 50-90% CHANCE (HIGHEST NORTHEAST) FOR 0.25"+ OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIP. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD "DROUGHT-BUSTER", THIS
WOULD BE A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AND WILL HOPEFULLY HELP
WITH THE WILDFIRE THREAT.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH DAILY
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT FOR RAIN/SNOW ON FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FAVORED TO RETURN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN ACROSS THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. CEILINGS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10,000FT. THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY A 0%
CHANCE, PRECIPITATION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HOLD OFF THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A POWERING COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING (BETWEEN 9-12Z). THIS FRONT
WILL QUICKLY STEER WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS SHARPLY
RISING TO BETWEEN 20-25KTS AND WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS TO JUST
OVER 35-40KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOSE TO
SUNSET, THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AWAY BACK TO STEADY
10-15KTS WINDS TUESDAY EVENING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...STUMP
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