500
FXUS63 KGID 011759
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
BEST POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY LIE BETWEEN 5PM TONIGHT THROUGH
8AM THURSDAY.
- BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF 0.25-0.5" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 1" POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AND 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
- A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS A LIMITED FAR EASTERN AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
- SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FULL AREA TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PROMOTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASSENT. THOUGH A
HANDFUL OF LEADING/TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD FORM AS EARLY
AS THIS MORNING TO AS LATE AS THURSDAY MORNING, THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN 5PM THIS EVENING
TO 8AM THURSDAY MORNING.
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS, DRIER AIR
MIXING IN BEHIND COULD LIMIT THE SYSTEM'S PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY
AND LEAD TO SOME REDUCED PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. AS THE SHOWERS, INITIALLY
SPOTTY IN COVERAGE, BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY, THE
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE THE SHOWER CLUSTER MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SETUP COULD LEAVE A FEW SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DRIER THAN THE REST WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FAVORING FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING (0.5-1") WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES WITH AROUND 0.25-0.5"
FALLING ACROSS MOST OTHER PLACES.
BESIDES THE PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT
OF THE UPPER 40S AND 50S THIS AFTERNOON AS EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE
LIMITS MUCH OF THE DIURNAL WARMING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF
THE EAST BETWEEN 10-15MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25MPH.
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW THURSDAY MORNING WILL TURN WIND
DIRECTIONS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY
TAKE OVER IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS SPREADING THE 50S TO LOW 60S NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AND THE
60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF I-80. A SECONDARY AND LESS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCE COULD RETURN TO A SELECT FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIKELY DEVELOPING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. THE LATEST TRENDS, HOWEVER, HAVE PUSHED THE
EDGE OF WHERE THESE STORM WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EASTWARD. ASSUMING THAT
THIS TREND CONTINUES, IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF A
HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS EAST OF HWY-81 WILL RECEIVE ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS EVENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WINDS ARE ON A DECREASING TREND, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH ANY SNOW
POTENTIAL. INSTEAD, THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...ALONG
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. BUT AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED (100-500 J/KG MUCAPE), BUT THIS WILL BE PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS STRONG, AND MELTING LEVELS WILL BE LOW, SO A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SUB-SEVERE
HAIL.
IN TOTAL, PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FAVORED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHEAST AND LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME AREAS TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE 0.10", WHILE
ISOLATED AREAS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA MAY SEE OVER 1.00". OF
COURSE, GIVEN THE ISOLATED/SPOTTY COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
PINNING DOWN EXACT TOTALS WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER PAST SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT MANY MODELS KEEP OUR AREA MOSTLY (OR EVEN COMPLETELY)
DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP WILL BE TO THE
EAST.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY
(TUESDAY), BUT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (30-70% CHANCE).
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. IT MIGHT
BE A GOOD IDEA TO DRAIN HOSES AND SPRINKLERS THAT BEEN USED
EARLIER THIS SPRING. RIDGING THEN RETURNS TO THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY IFR THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY LIFR OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND HELPING TO SATURATE THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY
02/12Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
MORE LIKELY AFT 02/02Z - WHEN A -TSRA OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, AND
THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS -
OR FOR THAT MATTER, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE - SO KEPT
THE -TSRA CONFINED TO A PROB30 GROUP. LATE IN THE PERIOD CIGS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE, WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY
02/12Z...WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ROSSI
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