557
FXUS63 KGID 012337
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY MID-DAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25-0.5",
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1" POSSIBLE.
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 7 PM
TONIGHT AND 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERE/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
FRIDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURN NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
LOW, THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SATURATE, AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO LATE THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THAT
SAID, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT, SOME
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
DO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
THIS AFTERNOONS READINGS, BEFORE A SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE MORE OF A NORTHERN
TRACK AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PRODUCER,
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS LOOKING LIKELY AT BEST. THAT SAID,
TONIGHT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL
TO THE AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN AND
QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP, WITH THE MORE FAVORED
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING UP TO ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
THE 18Z HRRR IS EVEN MORE PROMISING, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 FAVORED TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT THAT WET, THE TRENDS IN THE
MESOSCALE MODELS CAST SOME HOPE FOR A DECENT RAINFALL IMPACTING
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
BEYOND FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR
WEST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF SOME MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH LOOK TO BE THE MOST
CONCERNING.
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN
THIS FLOW NEXT WEEK COULD BRING SOME MORE RAINFALL TO THE
REGION, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING AGAIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. IFR STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO THE TAF SITES (OR WILL
SHORTLY AT KEAR) AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIFR CONDITIONS. AROUND MIDNIGHT, EMBEDDED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BROADER RAIN SHIELD. THE
TIMING OR DURATION IS UNCERTAIN SO HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30
GROUP TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN
END AROUND THE MID MORNING HOURS (14-16Z), BUT THE EXACT END
TIME IS UNCERTAIN. AS RAIN COMES TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING,
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS DECK LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES.
VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO IFR (AROUND 2 MILES) IN SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY LIFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS REMAIN EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AROUND
SUNRISE, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KTS, GUSTING AROUND 20KTS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...DAVIS
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