389
FXUS63 KGID 021121
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LAST LINGERING SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN MAINLY 7AM AND 11AM, CLEARING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
- HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THE 50S TO LOW 70S
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH.
- A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS A LIMITED NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON
(20-50% CHANCE).
- THE NEXT AREAWIDE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT COME UNTIL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING ARE WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTH END OF A KANSAS CENTRIC 996MB SURFACE LOW. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THE LAST COURSE OF PRECIPITATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM SERVES TO THE AREA TODAY. DESPITE THE LOW TEMPERATURES, 500-
1,000J OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND 25-45KTS OF BULK SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER CLUSTER
THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE, ALTHOUGH A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES. OVERALL, MOST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY REMAIN
GENERALLY MORE SO ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THINGS.
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 7AM AND 11AM, CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST AND AWAY. CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY
COULD LET THE SUN PEAK OUT FOR A FEW HOURS, HELPING TEMPERATURES
CLIMB AS HIGH AS THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH AND/OR
WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES. SHOWERS SLOWER TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS FROM
LEAVING THE 50S TO LOW 60S. STEADY 10-15MPH WINDS WILL TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE WINDS TAKE OVER ACROSS THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE STEADY 10-15MPH WINDS WILL REESTABLISH OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON FRIDAY, NORTHEAST RETURNING WINDS BETWEEN 10-20MPH COULD TURN
GUSTY AT TIMES WITH PEAK AFTERNOON GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TRI-
CITIES. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S (FAR NORTHERN AREAS) TO UPPER 60S (FAR SOUTHERN AREAS).
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MATERIALIZE. OUR CONFIDENCE HAS GENERALLY BACKED AWAY SOME AS THE
DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS FRIDAY EVENING NOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA GIVEN THE TIMING OF A PASSING COLD FRONT (PASSING
EARLIER IN THE DAY). A SECONDARY SYSTEM, TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS
THE SYSTEM TODAY, WILL PASS BY ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THE ONLY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AREA
WOULD BE A FEW SHOWERS CLIPPING A FEW NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THE EXITING LOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH MAY
GUST AS HIGH AS 30-40MPH WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION, SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND SATURDAY (50S TO LOW 60S) AS
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED TO PUSH IN COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTH. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD
MATERIALIZE AS AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25-45% ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA. THE GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MAY
LIMIT RH VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS, THOUGH THE TREND WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
LOW, THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SATURATE, AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT
AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO LATE THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THAT
SAID, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT, SOME
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
DO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
THIS AFTERNOONS READINGS, BEFORE A SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE MORE OF A NORTHERN
TRACK AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PRODUCER,
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS LOOKING LIKELY AT BEST. THAT SAID,
TONIGHT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL
TO THE AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN AND
QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP, WITH THE MORE FAVORED
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING UP TO ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
THE 18Z HRRR IS EVEN MORE PROMISING, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 FAVORED TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT THAT WET, THE TRENDS IN THE
MESOSCALE MODELS CAST SOME HOPE FOR A DECENT RAINFALL IMPACTING
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
BEYOND FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR
WEST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF SOME MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH LOOK TO BE THE MOST
CONCERNING.
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN
THIS FLOW NEXT WEEK COULD BRING SOME MORE RAINFALL TO THE
REGION, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING AGAIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THE LAST OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA FOR BOTH TERMINAL SITES SOON THIS MORNING (LIKELY
BEFORE 14Z). VISIBILITIES SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ABOVE 6SM,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z. DESPITE THE QUICK EXIT OF THE
PRECIPITATION, IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
(MAINLY THROUGH 18-20Z). SKIES BETWEEN 21-1Z WILL CLEAR UNTIL
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD (BETWEEN 6-10Z).
WINDS WILL KEEP A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SPEEDS HANGING NEAR 15KTS AND GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 20-25KTS. LIGHTENING WINDS BETWEEN 18-21Z WILL
TEMPORARILY INTRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 21-1Z.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BLOWING BETWEEN 10-15KTS WILL MAINTAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...STUMP
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