503
FXUS63 KGID 040131
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
831 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES AND FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF
OUR FORECAST AREA DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY/RH (ELSEWHERE IN OUR AREA, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25-30%).
- INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL NEXT WEEK WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST
CHANCES (60% TO 75%) TENTATIVELY EXPECTED THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
- ALONG WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES, CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN AT VARIOUS POINTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. STRONGER STORMS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY
(IT IS APRIL AFTER ALL), BUT STILL TOO SOON TO SAY WHETHER ANY
"TRUE" CONVECTIVE THREAT MIGHT CLIP INTO OUR AREA OR INSTEAD
FOCUS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND/OR EAST.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: OVERALL THE NEXT 7 DAYS APPEAR VERY
SEASONABLE FOR APRIL, WITH HIGH TEMPS MOST DAYS 50S-60S AND
LOWS MOST NIGHTS 20S-40S. AT LEAST FOR NOW, WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE OVERALL-WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS 70S-LOW 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED "ON TIME" THIS EVENING:
ALTHOUGH SPOTTY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
LINGER THROUGH AROUND 9 PM IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA
(WHEREVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS 25 PERCENT OR LOWER AND
WINDS CONTINUE GUSTING AT LEAST 20 MPH), OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL NO LONGER OCCUR THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER SUNSET, CLIMBING TO AT LEAST 30-40
PERCENT BY 10 PM. AS A RESULT, THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE GREAT
PLAINS. UPPER LIFT HAS INCREASED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS,
DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING EARLIER TODAY THAT HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY RANGING FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LIGHT,
WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ON SUNDAY WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN 2 SURFACE TROUGHS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RANGING
FROM THE 40S TO NEAR 70. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED LIFT AND
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT BUT THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
(60% TO 75% CHANCE).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
IS ALSO HIGH THAT CEILING SHOULD DROP NO LOWER THAN MVFR
(PERHAPS BRIEF IFR MAINLY KGRI?). HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
QUESTION MARKS REGARDING WHICH SIDE OF THE MVFR/VFR "BREAKPOINT"
THE CEILING WILL ULTIMATELY PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KGRI WHERE MVFR WILL PROBABLY BE MORE
PREVALENT. PRECIPITATION-WISE, WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE/FLURRY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL NOT OCCUR AND HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF TAFS.
BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED CEILING QUESTIONS, MODERATELY-STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WHEN SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL COMMONLY AVERAGE
20-25KT/GUSTS AROUND 30KT. BACKING UP TO THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL START THE EVENING MAINLY 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST, BUT THEN START PICKING UP MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM...COMMONLY SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KT/GUSTS 20+KT.
- CEILING UNCERTAINTY (CENTERED AROUND MVFR VS. VFR QUESTIONS):
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT
LEAST 05-06Z. HOWEVER, ANYTIME BETWEEN THEN AND ROUGHLY 15Z AT
KEAR/21Z AT KGRI...AT LEAST AN INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILING IS
POSSIBLE, WITH THE MAIN QUESTION MARKS BEING DURATION. FOR
LATEST TAFS...HAVE GONE WITH INCREASED DURATION OF MVFR VERSUS
PREVIOUS TAFS (MAINLY FOR KGRI), BUT CONFIDENCE IS ADMITTEDLY
CONSIDERED ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. FOCUSING ON EACH SITE:
- FOR KGRI: HAVE GONE PREVAILING MVFR 05-21Z, WITH BRIEF IFR
EVEN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY 05-07Z (CURRENTLY HAVE SCATTERED IFR
CLOUD GROUP DURING THIS TIME). IN REALITY, MVFR COULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT THAN CURRENT TAFS DEPICT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN AN OUTRIGHT RETURN TO VFR BY 21Z, A LOWER-END VFR
CEILING (4-5K FT. AGL) COULD LINGER EVEN BEYOND THAT.
- FOR KEAR: THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD AND DURATION OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CEILING IS CERTAINLY LOWER COMPARED TO KGRI, AND ONLY
HAVE PREVAILING MVFR 06-09Z. HOWEVER, AT LEAST SCATTERED MVFR
CLOUDS AND/OR A LOW-END VFR CEILING BETWEEN 3-5K FT. AGL COULD
PERSIST WELL BEYOND THAT INTO SATURDAY DAYTIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- SATURDAY POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA:
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
WITHIN OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING DAWSON, GOSPER,
FURNAS, PHILLIPS AND ROOKS COUNTIES...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST 25-35 MPH, AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
LOOKING BEYOND SATURDAY, FORTUNATELY THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
"OBVIOUS" DAYS THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS THAT MIGHT NECESSITATE WARNING
ISSUANCE, BUT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST BEARS WATCHING CONSIDERING IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...SCHULDT
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