675
FXUS63 KGID 040604
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
104 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF
OUR FORECAST AREA DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY/RH (ELSEWHERE IN OUR AREA, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25-30%).
- INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL NEXT WEEK WITH THE OVERALL-HIGHEST
CHANCES (60% TO 75%) TENTATIVELY EXPECTED THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
- ALONG WITH THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES, CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN AT VARIOUS POINTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. STRONGER STORMS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY
(IT IS APRIL AFTER ALL), BUT STILL TOO SOON TO SAY WHETHER ANY
"TRUE" CONVECTIVE THREAT MIGHT CLIP INTO OUR AREA OR INSTEAD
FOCUS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND/OR EAST.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: OVERALL THE NEXT 7 DAYS APPEAR VERY
SEASONABLE FOR APRIL, WITH HIGH TEMPS MOST DAYS 50S-60S AND
LOWS MOST NIGHTS 20S-40S. AT LEAST FOR NOW, WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE OVERALL-WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS 70S-LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE GREAT
PLAINS. UPPER LIFT HAS INCREASED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS,
DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING EARLIER TODAY THAT HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY RANGING FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE 50S AND 60S
IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LIGHT,
WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ON SUNDAY WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN 2 SURFACE TROUGHS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RANGING
FROM THE 40S TO NEAR 70. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED LIFT AND
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT BUT THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
(60% TO 75% CHANCE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
IS ALSO HIGH THAT CEILING WILL DROP NO LOWER THAN MVFR. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE SOME QUESTION MARKS REGARDING WHICH SIDE OF THE
MVFR/VFR "BREAKPOINT" THE CEILING WILL ULTIMATELY PREVAIL
THROUGH MAINLY THESE FIRST 9-13 HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KGRI WHERE
MVFR WILL PROBABLY BE MORE PREVALENT. PRECIPITATION-WISE, WHILE
A BRIEF SPRINKLE AND/OR BRIEF DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THESE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL NOT OCCUR AND HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIP MENTION OUT OF
TAFS.
BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED CEILING QUESTIONS, MODERATELY-STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WHEN SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL COMMONLY AVERAGE
20-25KT/GUSTS AROUND 30KT. BACKING UP TO EARLY THIS MORNING
(THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE), WINDS WILL START BECOMING A
BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...COMMONLY SUSTAINED AROUND
15KT/GUSTS 20+KT.
- CEILING UNCERTAINTY (CENTERED AROUND MVFR VS. VFR QUESTIONS):
AT LEAST AN INTERMITTENT CEILING IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY THROUGH
21Z KEAR/00Z KGRI...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION MARK BEING HOW MUCH
OF THIS CEILING IS MVFR (MAINLY 2-3K FT. AGL) VERSUS LOW-END VFR
(MAINLY 3-5 K FT. AGL). COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAFS, MADE
RELATIVELY MINIMAL CHANGE, BUT DID BRING OUTRIGHT-VFR BACK TO
KGRI A FEW HOURS EARLIER (NOW AIMED FOR 19Z). FOCUSING A BIT
MORE ON EACH SITE:
- FOR KGRI: ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE INTE ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN AN OUTRIGHT RETURN TO VFR BY 21Z, A
LOWER-END VFR CEILING (4-5K FT. AGL) RMITTENT THAN CURRENT
TAFS REFLECT, HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH 19Z,
ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD FAVOR BEING NO WORSE THAN HIGH-END MVFR
BEYOND THESE FIRST FEW HOURS. EVEN IF VFR RETURNS SOONER THAN
CURRENTLY REFLECTED, A LOW-END VFR CEILING (4-5K FT. AGL)
COULD LINGER THROUGH AS LATE AS AROUND 00Z.
- FOR KEAR: THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD AND DURATION OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CEILING IS CERTAINLY LOWER COMPARED TO KGRI, AND HAVE
ONLY KEPT PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH 09Z. HOWEVER, AT LEAST
SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS AND/OR A LOW-END VFR CEILING BETWEEN
3-5K FT. AGL COULD PERSIST WELL BEYOND THAT, POSSIBLY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- SATURDAY POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA:
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY
WITHIN OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING DAWSON, GOSPER,
FURNAS, PHILLIPS AND ROOKS COUNTIES...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST 25-35 MPH, AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL ALSO HAVE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
LOOKING BEYOND SATURDAY, FORTUNATELY THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
"OBVIOUS" DAYS THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS THAT MIGHT NECESSITATE WARNING
ISSUANCE, BUT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST BEARS WATCHING CONSIDERING IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
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