047
FXUS63 KGID 050934
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
434 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER, LESS WINDY, AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
- COOLER TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY LOW AND/OR LIGHT.
- WARMER ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACTLY HOW WARM WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT.
- MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
PERHAPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS WELL, BUT STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON SPECIFICS AND LOCATION OF HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT NICER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO FULL
SUNSHINE, LIGHTER WINDS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT'S NOT THAT
THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE ANY WIND TODAY, THERE WILL BE, BUT
IT'LL BE MUCH LIGHTER AT MOSTLY 5-20 MPH (LIGHTEST S, STRONGEST
N), AND THE WIND WON'T HAVE AS MUCH BITE TO IT WITH WARMER TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F AND GOOD SUNSHINE.
FORECAST BECOMES QUITE A BIT TRICKIER FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N TONIGHT, THEN SETTLE
SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT COULD TRY TO
MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY, THOUGH
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z EC) ISN'T QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. ALL THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE,
PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES, WITH MAYBE ONLY 40S TO
LOWER 50S N, TO 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE S. THE COOLER NORTHERN
AREAS COULD ALSO HAVE SOME ISO-SCAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION, EITHER
RAIN OR WET SNOW...DURING THE DAY MONDAY OVER FAR N/NE ZONES,
THEN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITHIN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE AM. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS PARTICULARLY HEAVY -
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO TENTH, OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR THE
AREA AS A WHOLE. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT HAS
TRENDED A BIT FASTER, WHICH COULD KEEP PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(MAINLY N OF I-80) IN THE 60S, VS 70S TO LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
MODELS STILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK - BOTH IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE ARE STILL SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LATITUDE OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.
MOST RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO FOCUS THE MORE PERSISTENT
ACTIVITY IN KS VS NE...BUT THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE
TUNE THE DETAILS. COOLER, BUT STILL SEASONABLY AVERAGE-ISH
TEMPERATURES, WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EXTENDS
OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE 60S BUT WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA) WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 22% - 26% ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND WIND GUSTS OF 20-30+ MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES COOLING
INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE WEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY BUT
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN 2
SURFACE LOWS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT BUT STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE 60S. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP (15%-30% CHANCE) MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES ON
MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION (RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW) POSSIBLE (15% - 40% CHANCE). LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
(COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT).
ENHANCED UPPER LIFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS ALONG
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE. DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY (30% TO NEAR 60% CHANCE) WITH ANY SNOW BEING IN THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER
AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH HAS LEAD TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW, EXPECTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 70S
ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME,
EXPECTING LOWS TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN REGARDS TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50% TO 75% CHANCE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS BY 05/17Z...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS AS DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT AFTER SUNSET...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING AND
BECOMING EASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...ROSSI
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