297
FXUS63 KGID 060955
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
455 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES (40S-50S TO LOWER 70S) FROM N
TO S EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY THANKS TO SHARP FRONTAL ZONE.
- 60S TO 70S AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- VARIOUS CHANCES (20-50%) FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR WINTRY MIX
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MUCH GREATER CHANCES (50-80%) FOR MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE/STORMY (CHANCES AROUND 50-70%)
NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GOING TO BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM N TO S
THANKS TO A SHARP FRONTAL ZONE THAT GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD
TO BETWEEN I-70 AND THE KS/NE STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. N OF
THIS FRONT, EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND BLUSTERY
E/NE WINDS THAT, WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 40S-50S,
WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY...ESP. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER. THE FAR S TIER OF COUNTIES MAY STILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND MORE
SUNSHINE. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD SUPPORT SOME
ISO-SCAT SPRINKLES AND/OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER AREAS
MAINLY N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES TODAY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH.
PRECIP CHANCES EXPAND AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, THOUGH EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY WILL BE
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IN GENERAL, MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT A NW TO SE BAND OF, PRECIP WILL EXTEND FROM SD/NE INTO
IA/MO, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MOST
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WILL ROUGHLY ALIGN
ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH LATEST EC DOES STILL PRODUCE A
FEW TENTHS OF QPF FURTHER SW INTO OUR AREA. RECENT EXTENDED RAP
AND HRRR RUNS KEEP MOST ACTIVITY TO OUR N/E, SO THE EC IS A BIT
OF AN OUTLIER. THUS, TEND TO THINK ANY PRECIP IN THE LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. PRECIP TYPE COULD BE
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW (SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW HEAVY IT
IS/ISN'T)...BUT EVEN IF IT'S SNOW, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION AND/OR IMPACTS GIVEN LIKELY MODEST RATES AND
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM LOWER 70S SW TO PERHAPS ONLY
UPPER 40S NEAR THE COLUMBUS AREA.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TUE NIGHT INTO WED AM AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE DURING THE
DAYTIME...SO SPECIFIC HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON SPECIFIC TIMING. IN
GENERAL, AREAS S/SE OF THE TRI-CITIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO RISE
INTO THE 70S, WHEREAS AREAS N/NW MAY STAY IN THE 60S. THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DRY.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION WED NIGHT COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE, MAINLY ALONG AND S OF THE KS/NE STATE LINE, WITH HAIL
THE EXPECTED MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S
WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S.
A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
THE 70S IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT
AS ATMOSPHERIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE (15% TO 50% CHANCE) MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
TO THE 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY (UP TO 50% CHANCE) MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 30S AND 40S WITH 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP (20% TO 45% CHANCE)
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT WITH CHANCES INCREASING TO 45%
TO 65% WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THIS COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. A WARM UP IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AS WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH. VARIOUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (60% TO NEAR 80%)
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME
MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO SATURATE.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST
BREEZES LESS THAN 8 KTS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS (25 KTS+) CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FRONT DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS BKN
CIGS NEAR 8KFT FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SIGNALS ARE
MIXED AFT 07/00Z...SO ONLY INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AND NEAR MVFR CIGS AFT 07/02 FOR THE TIME BEING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...ROSSI
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