421
FXUS63 KGID 070000
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY AFFECTING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES UP TO 80% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MIDWEST WITH
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE HIGH
OUT OF CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO NEBRASKA. ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT IS OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE SURFACE HIGH AND CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY, BUT A WARM FRONT
ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY REACH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ROOKS, OSBORNE, AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES WARMING UP INTO THE 70S. IF THE WARM FRONT MAKES
IT THAT FAR NORTH, HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP TO AROUND 20% TO 25%
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY GET UP TO AROUND 20 MPH WHICH MAY CREATE
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH
OR LESS.
THE COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW LONG THE COOLER AIR WILL LINGER BEFORE
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
WILL EXTEND TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH IT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED
CAPE, WIND SHEAR, LAPSE RATES, AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS THREAT WILL MAINLY BE FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL GET.
RAIN, WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO 70S. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR
MORE CHANCES (65% TO 80%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WARM UP ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE DEGREE OF WARM UP DUE TO MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER. MORE CHANCES (35% TO 65%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT ON SUNDAY AS MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY MAY
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND 80S WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS
IFR CEILINGS AND "POSSIBLY" SOME PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT BOTH
KGRI AND KEAR THIS FORECAST. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS INITIALLY, BUT THEN IFR CEILINGS AS LOW AS 500
FEET OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES ABOARD EASTERLY WINDS. FOR
NOW HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AND SLEET,
BUT SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THAT TO BE EAST OF
GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY. IT IS PRETTY NARROW AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION OVERALL, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT EITHER AIRPORT. ASIDE FROM THAT,
LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS VEER A BIT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
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