276
FXUS63 KGID 071142
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
642 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM WARM SW TO COOL NE.
CAN'T GUARANTEE TODAY STAYS COMPLETELY DRY, BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES.
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
S/SE AREAS WARM NICELY INTO THE 70S, WHEREAS A N/NW AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE HELD IN THE 60S.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY, AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND S OF THE KS/SE
STATE LINE.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES UP TO 80% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AT TIMES. WITH
THAT SAID, THERE WILL BE SOME "WINNERS & LOSERS" WHEN IT COMES
TO RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH OVERALL HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAVORING
LOCATIONS S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY, THE PRIMARY BAND OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
TODAY WAS LOOKING TO SET UP MAINLY NE/E OF THE AREA, AND THAT
HAS PANNED OUT AS EXPECTED. WE STILL HAVE SOME VERY LOW END POPS
SMATTEREED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
WEAK WAVES INTERACTING WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE 10-15K FT
LAYER, AS WELL AS NEAR THE SURFACE. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
MOISTURE LAYERS, SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF ANY RAIN TODAY TO MAINLY SPRINKLES/TRACE AMNTS.
CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST AND MORE PREVALENT FROM AROUND THE TRI-
CITIES AND ESP. TO THE N AND E...AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
COOLEST IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. KS ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SO PERHAPS A SOLID ~25 DEGREE
GRADIENT BETWEEN COLUMBUS AREA AND PLAINVILLE.
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD TONIGHT THANKS TO INCR
LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION, AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NW TO SE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. TRI-CITIES N AND W PROBABLY
STAY IN THE 60S GIVEN LATEST TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AM
TO EARLY AFTN. AREAS S OF A LINE FROM PHG TO JYR WILL LIKELY
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S - PERHAPS EVEN FLIRTING WITH 80F IN NORTH
CENTRAL KS. ISOLATED T-STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE
FRONT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM AROUND
PLAINVILLE TO HEBRON. WITH THAT SAID, SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL
TRENDS ARE A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT, AND THUS, FURTHER S/SE
WITH THE ISO T-STORM THREAT. SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP, THERE
REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND AT LEAST WEAK ASCENT
BACK UP AND OVER THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE COULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS OVERNIGHT - THOUGH THE PRESENCE
OF SUCH ACTIVITY AND OVERALL COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WORK WEEK WILL BE ON
THURSDAY, BUT ESP. THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL THINK JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA CAN GET AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT MODELS ARE REALLY HONING IN ON S/SE/E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE (0.50"+) RAINFALL. AREAS N AND NW OF
THE TRI-CITIES COULD BE RATHER DISAPPOINTED COME FRI AM.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
(FRANKLY) HAVE MY SUSPICIONS THAT THE LATEST NBM IS OVERDONE ON
THESE CHANCES, AT LEAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL INDEED REMAIN ACTIVE (ESP. WHEN COMPARED TO FAST FEW
MONTHS), BUT THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR APRIL...AND SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY, BELIEVE ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE
OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTTOM LINE - STILL EXPECT A COUPLE (FEW?)
ROUNDS OF MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT PROBABLY
NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS MANY WOULD HOPE...WITH SE AREAS HAVING
BETTER CHANCES THAN NW AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MIDWEST WITH
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE HIGH
OUT OF CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO NEBRASKA. ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT IS OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE SURFACE HIGH AND CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY, BUT A WARM FRONT
ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY REACH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ROOKS, OSBORNE, AND
MITCHELL COUNTIES WARMING UP INTO THE 70S. IF THE WARM FRONT MAKES
IT THAT FAR NORTH, HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP TO AROUND 20% TO 25%
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY GET UP TO AROUND 20 MPH WHICH MAY CREATE
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A HALF INCH
OR LESS.
THE COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW LONG THE COOLER AIR WILL LINGER BEFORE
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
WILL EXTEND TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH IT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED
CAPE, WIND SHEAR, LAPSE RATES, AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS THREAT WILL MAINLY BE FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL GET.
RAIN, WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS, IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO 70S. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR
MORE CHANCES (65% TO 80%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WARM UP ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE DEGREE OF WARM UP DUE TO MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER. MORE CHANCES (35% TO 65%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT ON SUNDAY AS MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY MAY
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND 80S WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
TODAY: EXPECT CURRENT MVFR CIGS TO LOWER FURTHER TO IFR WITHIN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. STRATUS
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...RETURNING
TO VFR AROUND 18-19Z. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE E THIS
MORNING, TURNING MORE SERLY THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED 14-18KT
AND GUSTING 24-28KT. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
TONIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A STRONG (50-60KT) LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO RAMP UP BY AROUND 03-04Z, WHICH WILL PRODUCE
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AT BOTH TERMINALS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LLWS WILL BE DESPITE CONTINUED
STRONG SFC WINDS...S TO SSW 15-20KT AND GUSTS AROUND 30KT.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...THIES
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