922
FXUS63 KGID 072325
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
625 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING MAINLY EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
- ALONG WITH MAKING FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY, THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LATE DAY/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE.
- CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE FAR SE
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTER WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY
PUSH IT (AND STORM CHANCES) OUTSIDE OF THE AREA ALTOGETHER.
- A MORE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
CURRENTLY...
IT WAS A DREARY START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL STRATUS. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DIMINISHED
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ONLY FAR NORTHERN
AREAS STILL SITTING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOOKING
ALOFT...UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, SITTING BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE IN THE
NM/TX AREA AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DAY STARTED OUT WITH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY...THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, WHILE A TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND GRADUAL NORTHWARD DIMINISHING
TREND MADE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL WORK OUT FAIRLY WELL, WITH 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE VERY SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
SLIDING GENERALLY EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER TONIGHT ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ROUGHLY OVER THE
WESTERN MN/CANADA BORDER BY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. REALLY HASN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE
MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...SHOWING THE FRONT ROUGHLY IN THE
TRI-CITIES AREA AROUND 18Z, THE EITHER RIGHT ALONG THE SE CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR JUST OUTSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING.
THE DAYTIME PASSAGE MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...THE GRADIENT FROM NW-SE COULD END UP TIGHTER THAN THE
LOW 60S-MID 70S CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO ITS LATE-DAY LOCATION IS ANOTHER FORECAST
CONCERN. EVEN IF THE TIMING ENDS UP ON THE SLOWER SIDE, IT LOOKS
TO BE THE FAR SE CORNER WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...A
QUICKER PASSAGE MEANS WE COULD GET MISSED ALTOGETHER. IT LOOKS
LIKE IT'LL BE A CLOSE CALL. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE STRONG-SEVERE SIDE...SPC DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK AREA CONTINUES TO INCLUDE MOST OF OUR NORTH
CENTRAL KS AREA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THAT FRONT LOOKS TO STALL
OUT AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH...BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WE COULD HAVE LINGER ELEVATED PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE FRONT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL JET. BEST
CHANCES WOULD REMAIN NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE.
REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OVERALL NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST, WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE MID-LONGER TERM PERIODS. MODELS SHOWING
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS...BOTH
IN THE MORE ZONAL FLOW TO END THE WORK WEEK, AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A LARGER TROUGH AXIS MOVE ONTO AND IN FROM THE WEST
COAST. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE THU-SUN TIME
FRAME...BUT HARD TO HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION
OF THESE DISTURBANCE AND CHANCES THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME YOU GO.
ON THURSDAY, MODELS SHOW THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
BACK NORTH...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS
BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SFC COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY, AND ON INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS THANKS A STRONGER LLJ. OVERALL BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS AND ANY STRONG-SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA
CONTINUES TO CLIP SSERN AREAS. HAIL/WIND WOULD AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THURSDAY IS ANOTHER LOWER-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING ISO-SCT PRECIP AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...FORECAST HAS RIGHT AROUND 60 IN THE
FAR NE TO MID 70S IN THE SSW. FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY THE OVERALL
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOW 60S...WITH 70S RETURNING
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY OFF/ON
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. DESPITE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT,
LLWS IS EXPECTED, WITH 50KT+ WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE.
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF GRI/EAR ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...MANGELS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page