651
FXUS63 KGID 082312
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
612 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY THIS EVENING, THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THOUGH AFFECTING A SMALL PORTION OF THE AREA, A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE, LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY
AFFECTING SSE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, AND THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW HAS A SLIGHT
RISK AREA (2 OUT OF 5) THAT INCLUDES PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NE AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND WOULD AGAIN
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. PLENTY
OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING AN AREA
OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS ND, WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NE...ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN SRN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, ANOTHER LARGER LOW IS SPINNING JUST
OFF THE CA/WA COAST, WITH WEAKER/BROAD RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF BOTH COASTS. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH HERE AT MID-AFTERNOON...ONLY HAVING THE
LAST QUARTER OR SO TO GET THROUGH. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AT TIMES BETWEEN
30-35 MPH. AS EXPECTED, THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN
QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WITH MID 50S CURRENTLY IN THE FAR
N TO MID 70S IN THE SSE.
HAVE HAD SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WITH
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES IN SPOTS, UNLIKELY
THAT MUCH/IF ANY HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. STILL LOOKING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY...AFFECTING A PRETTY
SMALL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH HI-RES MODELS SHOWING
THE MAIN THREAT REMAINING IN THE SE CORNER OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S- AROUND 40, CERTAINLY NOT
A TON OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...SPC MESO PAGE CURRENTLY
SHOWING AN AXIS OF AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE NOSING INTO THE
AREA, MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SHEAR TO INCREASE INTO THE 30-
40KT RANGE. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BEING ON THE STRONG-
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...HAIL IS A CONCERN, AS ARE WINDS WITH
THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MAIN THREAT SHOULD ALSO BE
FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO KS (THOUGH NOT TOO FAR).
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE (20-30
PERCENT), AND WILL ADMIT THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TOO BROAD, BUT
WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH LOCATION COULDN'T TRIM
CHANCES TOO MUCH. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THAT
09-12Z PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE STRONG-
SEVERE.
THURSDAY...
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
LLJ...AGAIN THE COVERAGE OF POPS MAY BE TOO BROAD WITH COVERAGE
LOOKING TO BE ON THE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SIDE, BUT MODELS VARY
WITH JUST WHEN/WHERE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS/SHIFTS.
FOCUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOWING A BROADER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT, THEN FURTHER SE ONTO THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO WILL
HELP TO PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STALLS OUT NEAR I-70
TONIGHT BACK NORTH...IT AGAIN BEING THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WARM
FRONT NOT MAKING A TON OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS, AS THIS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL IS BRINGING ALONG A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. FROM ROUGHLY MID-AFTERNOON ON, AND MORESO AFTER 00Z ONCE
THE LLJ RAMPS UP, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP BACK UP...WITH
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BEST POTENTIAL AGAIN
ACROSS SSE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S...AIDING IN BETTER INSTABILITY
(MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE), WITH DEEPER
LAYER SHEAR AGAIN AROUND 30-40KTS. CONCERN REMAINS FOR SOME
STORMS TO BE STRONG-SEVERE, MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 6-NORTH CENTRAL
KS AND ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281...AND SPC UPGRADED THIS AREA TO A
SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5)...THE MARGINAL RISK AREA (1 OUT OF 5)
IS SPREAD FURTHER NORTH/WEST. LARGE HAIL/WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MODELS SHOW THE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND THE LLJ VEERING MORE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO WHILE THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO
LINGER ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY
HIGH THERE IS GOING TO BE MUCH OF IT (PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS STILL).
FRIDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THURSDAY'S REINFORCING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING COOLER FRIDAY,
REMAINING THE COOLEST OVERALL DAY OF THIS 7-DAY PERIOD. WE'LL
SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT RECENT RUNS
SUGGEST THE CURRENT FORECAST PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE TOO
HIGH/WIDESPREAD, POTENTIALLY SET UP BETWEEN THURSDAY'S DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND SOME SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
THE WEST AHEAD OF A LARGER SCALE SYSTEM DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST. CLOUDS/LINGERING PRECIP WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...SO THEIR TRENDS WILL MATTER, BUT CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S-NEAR 60, SO NEAR-NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN/PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, LOW PRESSURE
DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER INLAND
WILL BE BRINGING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTED OUT AHEAD
BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE EACH
DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HAS CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...NOT
EXPECTING A MULTI-DAY WASHOUT...JUST HARD TO HAVE A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION DETAILS, ESPECIALLY THE
FURTHER OUT IN TIME YOU GO. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
SOME OF THESE CHANCES MAY GET GREATLY REDUCED DEPENDING ON THEIR
TRACK, PUTTING THE BETTER POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS...AT THIS POINT MODELS SUGGEST THAT BETTER CHANCES
WILL FOCUS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT AGAIN WE'LL SEE HOW
THINGS TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
70S-80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COOLER PUSH TUE-WED WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S-60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (30% CHANCE).
WINDS TURN TO THE EAST FOR THURSDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE AT TIMES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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