539
FXUS63 KGID 092358
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 11 PM IN
OUR FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA (MAINLY NUCKOLLS,
THAYER, JEWELL, OSBORNE, MITCHELL COUNTIES). PRIMARY THREATS
HAIL UP TO ~ 1.5 INCH (PING PONG BALL) AND WIND GUSTS UP TO ~
60 MPH.
- SCATTERED NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS A SELECT PORTION OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.
- THE TOTAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE MORE
LIMITED THAN WIDESPREAD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO THE 70S AND 80S STARTING
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT, WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT, HAS SINCE
STALLED INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE NE/KS STATE BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A FEW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MANAGED TO POP UP ACROSS A SELECT PORTION OF THE AREA. THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MINOR (LESS THAN 25%
OF THE AREA) WITH CONCENTRATIONS MAINLY EAST OF HWY-281 THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
A FEW OF THE SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE (MAINLY BETWEEN THE 5-11PM TIMEFRAME). THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE FOR ONES THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-
80 (AREAS CLOSER TO AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY) WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIE (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
DEWPOINTS WITH 1,000-2,000J OF MUCAPE). A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ENCOMPASSES PORTIONS OF WEBSTER, NUCKOLLS AND
THAYER COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AS WELL AS SMITH, JEWELL, ROOKS, OSBORNE
AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WITH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
NEAR 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OVERALL, THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED IN COVERAGE ACROSS ONLY A FEW SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THROUGH DECENT 30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL HELICITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, THE LOW
DEWPOINTS NO GREATER THAN THE MID 50S WITH HIGH LCLS (>1,500M)
SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL THIS EVENING (TO MAINLY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT). FLOODING IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN AS
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION ROLLING ON THROUGH
(AROUND 25-40MPH), LIMITING RESIDENCE TIMES OF ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
BEYOND THE STORM POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT, WINDS STARTING OUT OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO LIKELY FALL TO
THEIR COLDEST POINT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS REACH DOWN TO THE
30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
(MID 50S TO LOW 60S) AS EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE LOOMS OVERHEAD WITH
STEADY NORTHEAST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START THE DAY. THE 10-15MPH
STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25MPH WILL GRADUALLY
TURN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH AN ISOLATED AND
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
EVENING, THE SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET KICKS IN. EVEN THEN, THE
LATEST CAM'S HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LIKELY AS RESULT FROM WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT UNDERNEATH A ZONAL TO WEAK RIDGING PATTERN IN THE UPPER-
LEVELS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MORE TO BE A HIT OR MISS WITH
LIKELY ONLY A FEW AREAS THAT MAY CATCH MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.2".
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR SATURDAY MAY BLOW BETWEEN 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL COME AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES QUICKLY RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WIND WILL
HELP BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS RAISING AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
INTO THE 70S COMPARED TO FRIDAY. A SIMILAR STORY PRECIPITATION-WISE
MAY PLAY OUT SATURDAY AS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RD OF THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH
WIND GUSTS NEAR 60MPH.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HELP HIGHS MAINTAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S RANGE FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE UP WILL COME TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S. A SURFACE
CYCLONE IS FAVORED TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA IS CLIPPED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S EXTENDED DAY 6 (TUESDAY) 15% SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WOBBLE
BETWEEN THE 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
OVERALL-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A LOWER-VFR CEILING (DOWN TO AROUND 5K FT.) IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF IT. ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD REMAINS
PRECIPITATION-FREE (AND TAFS REFLECT THIS). THAT BEING SAID,
THERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE (10-20%) FOR A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND/OR A WEAK THUNDERSTORM ANYTIME MAINLY 10-16Z, SO
THIS BEARS WATCHING.
AS FOR WINDS, THEY WILL BE STEADY (BUT NOT OVERLY-STRONG). THE
OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL OCCUR RIGHT AWAY THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY SUSTAINED AROUND 15KT/GUSTS 20-25KT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DAYTIME, BUT WILL REMAIN A TOUCH ELEVATED WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS COMMONLY 10-15KT/GUSTS 15-20KT AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY
SHIFTS FROM NORTHEASTERLY...TO EASTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY TO
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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