505
FXUS63 KGID 100524
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AT LEAST SPOTTY, AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (THURS NIGHT) AND MORE SO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITHIN VARIOUS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
- AT LEAST FOR NOW, SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR TO HOLD AT LEAST
"SOME" RISK FOR OUR NEXT SEVERE STORM CHANCES, BUT WE PROBABLY
CANNOT TOTALLY TURN OUR BACKS ON SUNDAY-MONDAY EITHER. PLENTY
OF DETAILS STILL TO SORT OUT.
- THE TOTAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE MORE
LIMITED THAN WIDESPREAD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO THE 70S AND 80S STARTING
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
-- BRIEF COMMENTS ON RECENT/VERY-SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS:
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98 HAS BEEN OFFICIALLY CANCELLED
EARLY FOR ALL 5 COUNTIES IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA
THAT WERE INITIALLY INCLUDED.
- INDEED, WE DID SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS FIRE UP MAINLY BETWEEN
530-730PM, WITH HAIL TO AT LEAST 1" DIAMETER REPORTED IN
THAYER, JEWELL, OSBORNE, AND MITCHELL COUNTIES.
- LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS: SPOTTY, AND
MAINLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
PRIMARILY WITHIN COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER
(INCLUDING ONGOING ACTIVITY IN FAR SOUTHERN THAYER COUNTY),
BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT, WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT, HAS SINCE
STALLED INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE NE/KS STATE BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A FEW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MANAGED TO POP UP ACROSS A SELECT PORTION OF THE AREA. THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MINOR (LESS THAN 25%
OF THE AREA) WITH CONCENTRATIONS MAINLY EAST OF HWY-281 THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
A FEW OF THE SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE (MAINLY BETWEEN THE 5-11PM TIMEFRAME). THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE FOR ONES THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-
80 (AREAS CLOSER TO AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY) WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIE (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
DEWPOINTS WITH 1,000-2,000J OF MUCAPE). A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ENCOMPASSES PORTIONS OF WEBSTER, NUCKOLLS AND
THAYER COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AS WELL AS SMITH, JEWELL, ROOKS, OSBORNE
AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WITH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
NEAR 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OVERALL, THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED IN COVERAGE ACROSS ONLY A FEW SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THROUGH DECENT 30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL HELICITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, THE LOW
DEWPOINTS NO GREATER THAN THE MID 50S WITH HIGH LCLS (>1,500M)
SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL THIS EVENING (TO MAINLY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT). FLOODING IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN AS
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION ROLLING ON THROUGH
(AROUND 25-40MPH), LIMITING RESIDENCE TIMES OF ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
BEYOND THE STORM POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT, WINDS STARTING OUT OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO LIKELY FALL TO
THEIR COLDEST POINT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS REACH DOWN TO THE
30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
(MID 50S TO LOW 60S) AS EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE LOOMS OVERHEAD WITH
STEADY NORTHEAST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START THE DAY. THE 10-15MPH
STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25MPH WILL GRADUALLY
TURN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH AN ISOLATED AND
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
EVENING, THE SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET KICKS IN. EVEN THEN, THE
LATEST CAM'S HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LIKELY AS RESULT FROM WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT UNDERNEATH A ZONAL TO WEAK RIDGING PATTERN IN THE UPPER-
LEVELS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MORE TO BE A HIT OR MISS WITH
LIKELY ONLY A FEW AREAS THAT MAY CATCH MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.2".
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR SATURDAY MAY BLOW BETWEEN 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL COME AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES QUICKLY RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WIND WILL
HELP BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS RAISING AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
INTO THE 70S COMPARED TO FRIDAY. A SIMILAR STORY PRECIPITATION-WISE
MAY PLAY OUT SATURDAY AS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RD OF THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH
WIND GUSTS NEAR 60MPH.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HELP HIGHS MAINTAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S RANGE FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE UP WILL COME TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S. A SURFACE
CYCLONE IS FAVORED TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA IS CLIPPED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S EXTENDED DAY 6 (TUESDAY) 15% SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WOBBLE
BETWEEN THE 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, WITH BKN-OVC
CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING-AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE FRIDAY
EVENING-NIGHT MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KGRI/KEAR
FROM THE SOUTH. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE JUST PAST THE TAF
PERIOD, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
KEPT TAFS MVFR OR GREATER, BUT A PROB30 GROUP COULD BE NEEDED
PRIOR TO 06Z. NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED 10-15KTS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING AT
10-15KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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