095
FXUS63 KGID 101130
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS (15-25% POPS SOUTH OF HWY 6).
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING-
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY ONWARDS BEHIND A
WARM FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 20S (NORTH) TO LOW 40S
(SOUTH) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STORMS HAVE LARGELY LEFT THE
FORECAST AREA, THROUGH A FEW SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 136 THROUGH SUNRISE. ALOFT THE AREA IS UNDER
ZONAL FLOW WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S, COLDEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ROBUST. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (15-25%) DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TONIGHT MORE WIDESPREAD POPS RETURN TO THE AREA ALONG A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL JET. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THESE STORMS GIVEN
A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND MODEST SHEAR (30-40KTS). THIS
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTS IN DEWPOINTS
REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON SATURDAY. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUIDANCE
REMAIN SPLIT ON IF OR HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE. IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
FAVORABLE CAPE (1000-2000 J/KG) AND SHEAR (30-40KTS), ESPECIALLY IF
NEAR THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE, CURRENT POPS
SATURDAY DAYTIME (50-85%) ARE LIKELY OVERDONE, AND MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING-NIGHT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE BUT GIVEN THE TIMING OF
STORM ARRIVAL THE EXACT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL HELP TO
DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE (MOST LIKELY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA). HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S/80S, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT, WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT, HAS SINCE
STALLED INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE NE/KS STATE BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A FEW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MANAGED TO POP UP ACROSS A SELECT PORTION OF THE AREA. THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MINOR (LESS THAN 25%
OF THE AREA) WITH CONCENTRATIONS MAINLY EAST OF HWY-281 THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
A FEW OF THE SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE (MAINLY BETWEEN THE 5-11PM TIMEFRAME). THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE FOR ONES THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-
80 (AREAS CLOSER TO AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY) WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIE (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
DEWPOINTS WITH 1,000-2,000J OF MUCAPE). A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ENCOMPASSES PORTIONS OF WEBSTER, NUCKOLLS AND
THAYER COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AS WELL AS SMITH, JEWELL, ROOKS, OSBORNE
AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WITH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
NEAR 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OVERALL, THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED IN COVERAGE ACROSS ONLY A FEW SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THROUGH DECENT 30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL HELICITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, THE LOW
DEWPOINTS NO GREATER THAN THE MID 50S WITH HIGH LCLS (>1,500M)
SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL THIS EVENING (TO MAINLY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT). FLOODING IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN AS
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION ROLLING ON THROUGH
(AROUND 25-40MPH), LIMITING RESIDENCE TIMES OF ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
BEYOND THE STORM POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT, WINDS STARTING OUT OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO LIKELY FALL TO
THEIR COLDEST POINT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS REACH DOWN TO THE
30S TO MID 40S.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
(MID 50S TO LOW 60S) AS EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE LOOMS OVERHEAD WITH
STEADY NORTHEAST COLD AIR ADVECTION TO START THE DAY. THE 10-15MPH
STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25MPH WILL GRADUALLY
TURN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH AN ISOLATED AND
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
EVENING, THE SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET KICKS IN. EVEN THEN, THE
LATEST CAM'S HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LIKELY AS RESULT FROM WEAK SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT UNDERNEATH A ZONAL TO WEAK RIDGING PATTERN IN THE UPPER-
LEVELS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MORE TO BE A HIT OR MISS WITH
LIKELY ONLY A FEW AREAS THAT MAY CATCH MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.2".
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR SATURDAY MAY BLOW BETWEEN 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL COME AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES QUICKLY RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WIND WILL
HELP BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS RAISING AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
INTO THE 70S COMPARED TO FRIDAY. A SIMILAR STORY PRECIPITATION-WISE
MAY PLAY OUT SATURDAY AS ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RD OF THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH
WIND GUSTS NEAR 60MPH.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HELP HIGHS MAINTAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S RANGE FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE UP WILL COME TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S. A SURFACE
CYCLONE IS FAVORED TO FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA IS CLIPPED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S EXTENDED DAY 6 (TUESDAY) 15% SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WOBBLE
BETWEEN THE 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS
FAVORED FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING. BKN-OVC LOW TO MID LEVEL
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. AFTER SUNSET, MVFR STRATUS IS FAVORED TO
MOVE INTO KGRI/KEAR FROM THE SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS STRATUS DECK. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, THE
STRATUS DECK LOWERS TO IFR WITH A CHANCE FOR LIFR THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KTS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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