752
FXUS63 KGID 101943
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
243 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BETWEEN 11PM
AND 6AM (40-65% CHANCE). SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
- A FEW AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIALLY A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS DROPPING
BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES.
- MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
(30-50%) AND FOR FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
(10-30%). A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
(MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK).
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TUESDAY
(20-40% CHANCE) AND WEDNESDAY (20-30% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...
COLDER AIR TODAY FILLING IN BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONTINUES TO STICK AROUND FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND DROPPING ONLY DOWN TO THE 40S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A BROAD
1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL HELP BEND THE STEADY 10-15MPH EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20-25MPH TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY.
THOUGH THERE IS A 40-65% CHANCE FOR (NON-SEVERE) THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT, THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY NOT SPREAD MORE THAN 0.1-0.5" OF RAINFALL ACROSS 1/2 TO
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT. THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE BETWEEN 11PM TO 6AM. THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN UNLIKELY BASED ON THE LIMITED MU CAPE (500-
1,000J), LOW-TO-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-8 C/KM WITH A MODEST 25-
40KTS OF BULK SHEAR COULD STILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES. DEVELOPING FOG
BEHIND THE STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LIGHT TO STEADY
UPSLOPE FLOW MIXES DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO THEIR SATURATION POINT.
VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS 1 MILE WITH A HANDFUL OF
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY SEEING VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES ACROSS THE MORNING HOURS.
GUSTIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOWING BETWEEN 20
TO 25 MPH AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-35MPH, WILL BE PAIRED WITH EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. THOUGH THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THROUGH THE DAY, THE WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS WILL ASSIST
IN HELPING BUMP HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 70S.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER ITS WARM SECTOR SIDE. ALOFT, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING BY SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION,
INCREASING VERTICAL INSTABILITY (500-1,500 OF MU CAPE). THOUGH
STORMS WILL NOT BE A GUARANTEE (20-50% CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY), THE CONDITIONS WOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE TO HELP GIVE ANY
STORM THAT DOES POP UP POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS
(HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH). AS
RESULT, A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER COVERS THE
FULL AREA.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OUT WEST WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
ACROSS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL SET
UP A WAVE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THAT WILL PASS OVERTOP OF
THE AREA MAINLY BETWEEN SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS RESULT FROM THIS
FEATURE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY (10-
30%), TUESDAY (20-40%) AND WEDNESDAY (20-30%).
STORM CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS FAR EASTERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF AREAS (MAINLY AREAS EAST OF WHEREVER THE
DRYLINE SETS UP THAT AFTERNOON). A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
POTENTIALLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE (MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF HWY-281). ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STORMS COULD COME TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF (LONG RANGE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS) BEGIN TO DIVERGE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, TIMING AND FRONTAL PLACEMENTS WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE STORMS MAY END UP DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE, THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY (BESIDES WEDNESDAY) WILL HELP HIGHS MAINTAIN IN THE MID 70S
TO 80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BETWEEN 5-10Z
WITH STORMS IN THE VICINITY AS EARLY AS 4Z AND AS LATE AS 12Z.
IN ADDITION, BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE DAY
WILL DROP TO MVFR CLASSIFICATIONS AROUND 2Z FOR KEAR AND 4Z FOR
KGRI, IFR CLASSIFICATIONS AROUND 6Z FOR KEAR AND 8Z FOR KGRI &
LIFR CLASSIFICATIONS AROUND 8Z FOR KEAR AND 10Z FOR KGRI.
VISIBILITIES MAY FALL AROUND 8Z FOR KEAR AND 10Z FOR KGRI FROM
POTENTIAL FOG. VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MAY FALL AS
LOW AS 1-2MILES BETWEEN 11-16Z. CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 14-18Z. WINDS STARTING FROM
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD FOR
SATURDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY START
BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS
POSSIBLE. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BETWEEN 16-18Z
WITH SPEEDS NEARING 20KTS AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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