085
FXUS63 KGID 112356
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
656 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (20-30% CHANCE) COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG
BALLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (A FEW POTENTIALLY SEVERE)
RETURNS SUNDAY FOR A FEW SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THE MID 70S AND 80S SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A END OF THE WEEK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MAY DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER NEXT WEEKEND (BACK TO THE
50/60S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
TODAY...
FOLLOWING THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM LAST NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CENTRAL TO SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LINGERING CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS FOLLOWED US INTO TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS, BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS HAVE HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 25-35MPH WILL BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY
OVERNIGHT (GUSTS 15-30MPH) AS A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE
IF AND WHERE AFTERNOON TO NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THIS AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY HAS ALSO
INCREASE. SBCAPE VALUES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 1,000-2,500 J/KG WITH 6-8
C/KM LOW-TO-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT (20-30KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR), THE PRIMARLY HAZARD TONIGHT
WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. AS RESULT, THE SPC
HAS UPGRADED CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARE INTO
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5 FOR MAINLY LOCATIONS
NEAR, EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TRI-CITIES) AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY.
THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF STORMS DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED PLACES GIVEN WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
RESULT, ACTIVITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED TO A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONAL
CAP. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY HAVE LESS
ENERGY TO FEED OFF FROM, THUS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO WANE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SUNDAY AS CLOUDS CLEAR PARTIALLY
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
(DIRECTIONS VEERING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS).
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST POINT EARLY IN THE DAY
(10-20MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 30MPH) LATER LIGHTENING TO ONLY 5-10MPH
AND GUSTING UP TO 20MPH BY THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A LIMITED EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE EVENING. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EAST OF A PASSING DRYLINE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED (20-30% CHANCE) AS STORMS THAT DO FIRE, MAY DO SO AFTER THE
DRYLINE HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE AREA TO THE EAST. THE SPC HAS
INCLUDED AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS TO POLK
COUNTY NEBRASKA UNDERNEATH A MARGINAL RISK.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL SET UP SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY EMERGE OUT OF THIS
FLOW, EACH BRINGING ALONG AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP (20-40%) WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SIMILAR STORY AS SUNDAY MAY PLAY OUT WHERE THE
KEY FORCING MECHANISM (COLD FRONT) MAY PASS THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
DAY, MINIMIZING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORM POTENTIAL.
BEYOND THE MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN THE MID 70S AND 80S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS (OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY NIGHT) MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY ORIENTATION. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
BACK NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST A POTION OF
THE AREA EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BRIEF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
A FEW SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS MAINLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE WEEK THAT WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN SOME HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (BACK TO THE 50S AND 60S). ANOTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE MAY
TRAIL BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER AND
LIKELY MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING, HAVE DRY/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. HAVE A
PROB30 MENTION FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS, CONSIDERED LEAVING
PRECIP MENTION OUT ALTOGETHER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
EXPECTING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS EVEN WITH THOSE GUSTY WINDS IN PLACE. SOME MODELS
TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CLOUDS, SO DO HAVE A FEW010 MENTION AT BOTH SITES, JUST NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO MAKE IT A CEILING...WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...ADP
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