704
FXUS63 KGID 120548
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1248 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (A FEW POTENTIALLY SEVERE)
RETURNS SUNDAY FOR A FEW SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THE MID 70S AND 80S SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A END OF THE WEEK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MAY DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER NEXT WEEKEND (BACK TO THE
50/60S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
TODAY...
FOLLOWING THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM LAST NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CENTRAL TO SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LINGERING CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS FOLLOWED US INTO TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS, BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS HAVE HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 25-35MPH WILL BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY
OVERNIGHT (GUSTS 15-30MPH) AS A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE
IF AND WHERE AFTERNOON TO NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THIS AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY HAS ALSO
INCREASE. SBCAPE VALUES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 1,000-2,500 J/KG WITH 6-8
C/KM LOW-TO-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT (20-30KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR), THE PRIMARLY HAZARD TONIGHT
WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. AS RESULT, THE SPC
HAS UPGRADED CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARE INTO
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5 FOR MAINLY LOCATIONS
NEAR, EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TRI-CITIES) AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY.
THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF STORMS DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED PLACES GIVEN WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
RESULT, ACTIVITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED TO A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONAL
CAP. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY HAVE LESS
ENERGY TO FEED OFF FROM, THUS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO WANE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SUNDAY AS CLOUDS CLEAR PARTIALLY
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
(DIRECTIONS VEERING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS).
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST POINT EARLY IN THE DAY
(10-20MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 30MPH) LATER LIGHTENING TO ONLY 5-10MPH
AND GUSTING UP TO 20MPH BY THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A LIMITED EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE EVENING. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EAST OF A PASSING DRYLINE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED (20-30% CHANCE) AS STORMS THAT DO FIRE, MAY DO SO AFTER THE
DRYLINE HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE AREA TO THE EAST. THE SPC HAS
INCLUDED AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS TO POLK
COUNTY NEBRASKA UNDERNEATH A MARGINAL RISK.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL SET UP SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY EMERGE OUT OF THIS
FLOW, EACH BRINGING ALONG AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP (20-40%) WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SIMILAR STORY AS SUNDAY MAY PLAY OUT WHERE THE
KEY FORCING MECHANISM (COLD FRONT) MAY PASS THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
DAY, MINIMIZING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORM POTENTIAL.
BEYOND THE MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN THE MID 70S AND 80S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS (OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY NIGHT) MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY ORIENTATION. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
BACK NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST A POTION OF
THE AREA EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BRIEF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
A FEW SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS MAINLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE WEEK THAT WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN SOME HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (BACK TO THE 50S AND 60S). ANOTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE MAY
TRAIL BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER AND
LIKELY MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, AND AND RELATIVELY-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING THROUGH AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD (POSSIBLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR A FEW HOURS
GENERALLY AROUND SUNRISE?). THAT LEAVES WINDS AS THE MAIN
CONCERN, WITH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SURFACE SPEEDS (GUSTS TO
30+KT) RIGHT AWAY THESE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF MODERATELY-STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS).
- SLIGHT MVFR CEILING CONCERNS:
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE NO MORE THAN PASSING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY THE FIRST 12 HOURS). HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT PRIMARILY THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME COULD FEATURE AT
LEAST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILING AS THE LOWER LEVELS
TEMPORARILY TRY TO SATURATE. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IS ONLY CONSIDERED TO BE AROUND 20%, SO HAVE KEPT TAFS VFR,
BUT AT LEAST "HINT" AT THE POTENTIAL WITH "SCT015" AT KGRI AND
"FEW015" AT KEAR.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
RIGHT AWAY THESE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN QUITE BREEZY (SUSTAINED 20+KT/GUSTS 30+KT). HOWEVER,
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10-11Z THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASING
TREND, WITH THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY DAYTIME AND EVENING FEATURING
MORE MODEST BREEZES GENERALLY SUSTAINED NO HIGHER THAN
10-15KT/GUSTS UNDER 20KT. DIRECTION DURING MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
PREVAIL SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT THEN SUNDAY EVENING WILL TURN MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
DESPITE THE QUITE-BREEZY SURFACE WINDS ONGOING AT THIS TIME,
WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2K FT. AGL ARE NOTABLY STRONGER
(GENERALLY 50-60KT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST). AS A RESULT,
HAVE MAINTAINED LLWS GROUPS THROUGH 10Z KEAR/11Z KGRI, GIVEN
THAT THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE 1-2K FT.
AGL LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SOLIDLY AVERAGE 30-35KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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