498
FXUS63 KGID 121009
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
509 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP/TAKEN "CENTER
STAGE" FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS
OUR LATEST FORECAST HAS TRENDED AT LEAST SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
TEMPERATURES/WIND SPEEDS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS (SEE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS).
- OPPOSITE OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ANY CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (AND REALLY ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL) HAVE
LIKELY DIMINISHED FOR THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, AND IN FACT SPC
HAS COMPLETELY REMOVED ANY SEVERE RISK CATEGORIES THAT
PREVIOUSLY EXISTED FOR OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES.
- OUR NEXT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING, AND ALTHOUGH IT'S TOO SOON TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT
LEAST A SPOTTY SEVERE THREAT, AT LEAST FOR NOW SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS OVERALL-LOW.
- IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, IT'S STILL A LONG
WAYS OUT, BUT EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING.
- ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY APPEARS LITTLE-IF-ANY,
THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT A TOUCH OF SNOW COULD
MATERIALIZE AS TEMPERATURES FALL LATE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY.
- SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES: NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WITH SEASONABLY-WARM WEATHER (HIGHS 70S-80S)
PREVAILING TODAY-THURSDAY, BEFORE A DECENT SHOT OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY ONLY AIMED 50S
FOR SATURDAY.
- FINALLY: STILL A WAYS OUT AND NOT A "SURE THING" BUT WE MIGHT
NEED TO SHAKE THE DUST OFF FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE
WARNINGS FOR NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENTLY-PROJECTED LOW TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S (SPRING VEGETATIVE GROWTH HAS BEEN A BIT
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AFTER ALL).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY
ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (FOR BEYOND MONDAY):
- STARTING WITH THE LONGER-TERM FIRST (TUESDAY AND BEYOND),
THERE WERE NO TRULY "SIGNIFICANT" CHANGES WORTH NOTING VERSUS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES CENTERED ON
MOST OF THURSDAY-FRIDAY, BEFORE MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE A TOUCH OF SNOW ARRIVES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. FOR ALL OTHER LONGER-TERM RELATED NOTES,
PLEASE REFER TO KEY MESSAGES ABOVE.
- IN THE SHORTER TERM (THESE NEXT 36-48 HOURS), THIS FORECASTER
WAS ADMITTEDLY A BIT SURPRISED TO ENCOUNTER THE SOMEWHAT
"ABRUPT" UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND ALSO (BUT PERHAPS LESS-
SURPRISINGLY) THE DOWNTURN IN SPOTTY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING (MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING THAT WAY
OVER THE LAST 24+ HOURS AFTER ALL.
-- DETAILED FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS
(THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S VERY LOCALIZED BOUT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA (INCLUDING OUR
FIRST OFFICIAL BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO OF 2026 AS DOCUMENTED BY
SEVERAL STORM CHASERS IN SOUTHEASTERN THAYER COUNTY), IT'S BEEN
A VERY-BREEZY BUT THUS-FAR PRECIPITATION-FREE OVERNIGHT.
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS WE REMAIN
WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE SCALE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CENTERED
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. IT APPEARS A SUBTLE/WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRANSLATING FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST
THROUGH MAINLY KS, AND IS SETTING OFF SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
THAT COULD CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS (MAYBE EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM?).
AT THE SURFACE, A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TIED TO A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DAKOTAS...ALONG WITH MIXING INTO A
STOUT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...HAS RESULTED IN A BREEZY TO EVEN
SOMEWHAT WINDY NIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY SPEEDS COMMONLY
15-25 MPH/GUSTS 25-35 MPH, ALTHOUGH THESE SPEEDS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
THESE STEADY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD, WITH OFFICIAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT NO LOWER THAN 55-62 IN
MOST AREAS.
- TODAY (SEE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON
THAT TOPIC):
OFFICIALLY, OUR LATEST FORECAST HAS ALL BUT REMOVED PRECIP
CHANCES FROM OUR ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WHICH HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN UNDER AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SPOTTY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT CALL IT A
TRULY ZERO CHANCE THAT A FEW VERY SPOTTY/ROGUE SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRY BUBBLING UP DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE
LATER AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN (MAINLY KS) COUNTIES,
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND FIELD
(COMPARED TO THE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT YESTERDAY ALONG A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT HELPED TO FIRE OFF THE
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS), IN TANDEM WITH LESS CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY VERSUS YESTERDAY, LOOKS FAR MORE LIKELY TO KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. IN FACT, NOT ONLY DID SPC
REMOVE THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL RISK FROM OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST ZONES,
BUT THEY EVEN REMOVED THE "GENERAL THUNDERSTORM" CATEGORY.
ALL THAT BEING SAID, AND BACKING UP TO THIS MORNING, DID GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR THE SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF OUR
CWA (MAINLY MITCHELL/JEWELL/THAYER COUNTIES) THROUGH AROUND 9
AM, AS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST EDGES OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD BARELY SKIRT OUR SOUTHEAST EDGES BEFORE DEPARTING OFF TO
THE EAST. A WEAK THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
AND WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY IF THIS INDEED LOOKS
TO BE A BIT "MORE THAN SPRINKLES".
IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS TODAY, WHILE PARTS OF OUR CWA REACHED THE
80S YESTERDAY, TODAY OUR ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AT
LEAST 80-85 DEGREES (THESE HIGHS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST). WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES) COULD GET WARMING
OFF TO A SOMEWHAT SLOW START, CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY VACATE FROM
WEST-TO-EAST WITH TIME TODAY. THE INCREASED SUNSHINE, ALONG WITH
OVERALL FAIRLY "TAME" SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS MAINLY
UNDER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE HIGHER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS RESIDE), SHOULD MAKE FOR A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY
FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY THINGS ON THE WARMER SIDE (HUMIDITY
LEVELS/DEWPOINTS ALSO LOWER THAN YESTERDAY FOR THE AFTERNOON).
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
ALTHOUGH A VERY SPOTTY/ROGUE SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT, OUR FORECAST OFFICIALLY REMAINS DRY. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW TRACKING GENERALLY NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER OVERNIGHT
WILL KEEP US IN STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES...BUT LIGHTER THAN THE
ONGOING NIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAINLY ONLY 10-15
MPH/GUSTS MAINLY UNDER 20 MPH. LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ONGOING NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...AIMED FROM MAINLY UPPER 40S-LOW 50S WEST...TO MID-
UPPER 50S EAST.
- MONDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING (SEE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT PRIMARY TOPIC OF CONCERN):
UNLIKE TODAY, MONDAY NEVER REALLY HELD ANY CONVECTIVE CONCERNS
TO BEGIN WITH, AS IT'S BEEN PRETTY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS
(AND EVEN MORE SO NOW) THAT ANY LEGITIMATE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WOULD FOCUS WELL OFF TO OUR
EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST (MAIN THREAT AREA NOW LOOKS TO BE WELL UP
INTO THE NORTHERN IA/MN/WI REGION). INSTEAD, HERE LOCALLY WE GET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY-WARM (SOME WOULD SAY HOT) DAY WITH BREEZY-TO-
WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD EASILY GUST 30+ MPH
ESPECIALLY IN MOST OF OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA (PROBABLY A
LITTLE LIGHTER NORTH AND WEST). LIKE TODAY, HIGH TEMPS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MOST PLACES
NOW AIMED 83-88 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
TODAY...
FOLLOWING THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM LAST NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CENTRAL TO SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LINGERING CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS FOLLOWED US INTO TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS, BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS HAVE HELPED PUSH TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 25-35MPH WILL BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY
OVERNIGHT (GUSTS 15-30MPH) AS A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE
IF AND WHERE AFTERNOON TO NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THIS AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY HAS ALSO
INCREASE. SBCAPE VALUES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 1,000-2,500 J/KG WITH 6-8
C/KM LOW-TO-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT (20-30KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR), THE PRIMARLY HAZARD TONIGHT
WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. AS RESULT, THE SPC
HAS UPGRADED CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARE INTO
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5 FOR MAINLY LOCATIONS
NEAR, EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TRI-CITIES) AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY.
THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF STORMS DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED PLACES GIVEN WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
RESULT, ACTIVITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED TO A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONAL
CAP. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY HAVE LESS
ENERGY TO FEED OFF FROM, THUS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO WANE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SUNDAY AS CLOUDS CLEAR PARTIALLY
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
(DIRECTIONS VEERING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS).
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST POINT EARLY IN THE DAY
(10-20MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 30MPH) LATER LIGHTENING TO ONLY 5-10MPH
AND GUSTING UP TO 20MPH BY THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A LIMITED EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE A
STORM OR TWO IN THE EVENING. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EAST OF A PASSING DRYLINE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED (20-30% CHANCE) AS STORMS THAT DO FIRE, MAY DO SO AFTER THE
DRYLINE HAS COMPLETELY EXITED THE AREA TO THE EAST. THE SPC HAS
INCLUDED AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS TO POLK
COUNTY NEBRASKA UNDERNEATH A MARGINAL RISK.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL SET UP SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY EMERGE OUT OF THIS
FLOW, EACH BRINGING ALONG AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP (20-40%) WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SIMILAR STORY AS SUNDAY MAY PLAY OUT WHERE THE
KEY FORCING MECHANISM (COLD FRONT) MAY PASS THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
DAY, MINIMIZING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORM POTENTIAL.
BEYOND THE MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN THE MID 70S AND 80S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS (OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY NIGHT) MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY ORIENTATION. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
BACK NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST A POTION OF
THE AREA EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BRIEF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
A FEW SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS MAINLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE WEEK THAT WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN SOME HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (BACK TO THE 50S AND 60S). ANOTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE MAY
TRAIL BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER AND
LIKELY MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION-
FREE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, AND AND RELATIVELY-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING THROUGH AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD (POSSIBLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR A FEW HOURS
GENERALLY AROUND SUNRISE?). THAT LEAVES WINDS AS THE MAIN
CONCERN, WITH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SURFACE SPEEDS (GUSTS TO
30+KT) RIGHT AWAY THESE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF MODERATELY-STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS).
- SLIGHT MVFR CEILING CONCERNS:
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE NO MORE THAN PASSING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS (MAINLY THE FIRST 12 HOURS). HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT PRIMARILY THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME COULD FEATURE AT
LEAST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILING AS THE LOWER LEVELS
TEMPORARILY TRY TO SATURATE. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IS ONLY CONSIDERED TO BE AROUND 20%, SO HAVE KEPT TAFS VFR,
BUT AT LEAST "HINT" AT THE POTENTIAL WITH "SCT015" AT KGRI AND
"FEW015" AT KEAR.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
RIGHT AWAY THESE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN QUITE BREEZY (SUSTAINED 20+KT/GUSTS 30+KT). HOWEVER,
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10-11Z THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASING
TREND, WITH THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY DAYTIME AND EVENING FEATURING
MORE MODEST BREEZES GENERALLY SUSTAINED NO HIGHER THAN
10-15KT/GUSTS UNDER 20KT. DIRECTION DURING MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
PREVAIL SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT THEN SUNDAY EVENING WILL TURN MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
DESPITE THE QUITE-BREEZY SURFACE WINDS ONGOING AT THIS TIME,
WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2K FT. AGL ARE NOTABLY STRONGER
(GENERALLY 50-60KT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST). AS A RESULT,
HAVE MAINTAINED LLWS GROUPS THROUGH 10Z KEAR/11Z KGRI, GIVEN
THAT THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE 1-2K FT.
AGL LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SOLIDLY AVERAGE 30-35KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE TRENDED "WORSE", VERSUS
PREVIOUS FORECAST, MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS, BUT MORE SO A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE TO EXPECTED DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH). THANKS TO
THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S
MOST AREAS, RH IS NOW FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO AT LEAST 15-25%
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA. FORTUNATELY,
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO ONLY TOP OUT NO
HIGHER THAN 15-24 MPH IN MOST PLACES, KEEPING THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT "NEAR-CRITICAL" LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE MAIN EXCEPTION
IS IN OUR FAR NORTH (VALLEY/GREELEY COUNTIES), WHERE WIND GUSTS
APPEAR MORE FAVORED TO REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 25 MPH FOR AT LEAST
A FEW HOURS, THUS BREACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT, A
RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 12-7 PM FOR THESE TWO
COUNTIES.
- MONDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
COMPARED TO TODAY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE TRENDED EVEN
"WORSE" FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, AS BOTH RH (LIKELY LOWER
THAN TODAY) AND WIND SPEEDS (LIKELY HIGHER THAN TODAY) ARE NOW
EXPECTED. STARTING WITH RH, IT IS NOW FORECAST TO PLUNGE TO AT
LEAST 10-20% ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS, THEY ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT
LEAST 25-30 MPH (MAYBE EVEN 35 MPH?)...ESPECIALLY IN BOTH OUR KS
COUNTIES AND ALSO SEVERAL COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 IN
NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE, AT LEAST FOR NOW, WINDS LOOK A LITTLE
LIGHTER OVER MOST WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES IN OUR NEBRASKA CWA
(LOWER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 25+ MPH).
IN HINDSIGHT, WE PROBABLY "SHOULD HAVE" PURSUED A FORMAL FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ON THIS SHIFT FOR THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN,
BUT WOULD FULLY EXPECT DAY SHIFT TO "PULL THE TRIGGER" ON A
MONDAY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE UNLESS CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
UNEXPECTEDLY CHANGE.
- TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND:
WILL NOT DIVE INTO DETAILS JUST YET GIVEN IT'S STILL A FEW-TO-
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, BUT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD EASILY
MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY, SO THIS BEARS WATCHING AS THESE DAYS DRAW CLOSER IN
TIME.
-- NOTE:
- NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE
OVERLAP OF BOTH 20-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS
OF 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (FOR 3+ HOUR DURATION).
- NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS
THE OVERLAP OF BOTH 25-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS 15+MPH/20+ MPH
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039-040.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
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