683
FXUS63 KGID 130146
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
846 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VALLEY AND GREELEY COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 7PM FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRTITCIAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TO RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 12P-9PM FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KEARNEY TO MERRICK COUNTIES.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO MAINLY THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY EVENING (20-50%),
WEDNESDAY (20-40%) AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT (30-40%).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
WITH WIND/RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS EVENING,
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR VALLEY AND GREELEY TO EXPIRE ON
TIME THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, AFTER MAKING SOME
OVERALL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THINGS, DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH
RUNS FROM NOON TO 9PM. THAT END TIME MAY END UP BEING TOO
GENEROUS, WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND. DID NOT EXPAND THE AREA
FURTHER NORTHWEST AT THIS POINT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE, THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
COMPARED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. AGAIN...WILL SEE HOW
MODELS TREND OVERNIGHT...IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A BUMP UP TO
PUSH THE NEED TO EXPAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON:
THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING, A FEW NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MAY STILL SEE SOME RESIDUAL 25-30MPH WIND GUSTS. WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY, RH VALUES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS 15-20% FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE SET UP ACROSS NEBRASKA AREAS
NORTH OF I-80 INCLUDING PORTIONS NEBRASKA WEST OF HWY-183. THE
SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS ACROSS VALLEY AND GREELEY COUNTIES
(OCCASIONALLY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH) WILL MEET CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. AS RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7PM TONIGHT FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
MONDAY:
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AS DEWPOINTS
FALL TO THE 20S AND 30S. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WILL BRING RH VALUES DOWN TO AS LOW AS 10-20%
AREAWIDE. RETURNING SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BLOW
STRONGER THAN TODAY (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-30MPH). AS RESULT,
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AREA
WIDE. THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS (STRONGEST WIND WINDS GUSTS) WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. AS RESULT, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH BETWEEN 12PM AND 9PM WAS ISSUED THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO
INCLUDE ALL OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY TO
MERRICK COUNTIES. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE EVENING SHIFT TODAY WILL LOOK
TO UPGRADE THE WATCH IF NOT JUST A PORTION OF THE AREA OVER TO A RED
FLAG WARNING LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
TUESDAY:
THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY (UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S), DEWPOINTS SHOULD RETAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THUS
AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO STILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS 15-
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND BELOW 30% ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL DETERMINE IF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET CROSS A FEW PLACES WILL
BE THE WINDS. CURRENTLY, SOUTH TO EASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ARE FAVORED TO GUST AS HIGH AS 15-30MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
CONCENTRATED ALONG AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SEEM LOCKED IN,
THOUGH ONLY A FEW NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A FEW FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AREAS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ACTUALLY OBSERVE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAY BE CONSIDERED (NOT GUARANTEED) EITHER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY & BEYOND:
COOLER TEMPERATURES (BESIDES THURSDAY) MAY KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW
SCATTERED AREAS OF NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE EACH DAY.
THE NEXT AND BEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
BEING MET WILL BE THURSDAY AS HIGHS BRIEFLY CLIMB BACK UP TO THE
80S. THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONDITIONS AT
FIRST GLANCE, A FEW FORECAST ELEMENTS MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN THAT COULD IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
-- NOTE:
- NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE
OVERLAP OF BOTH 20-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS
OF 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (FOR 3+ HOUR DURATION).
- NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE
OVERLAP OF BOTH 25-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS
15+MPH/20+ MPH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH ANY CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY, WINDS LOOK TO TURN
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ048-049-
062>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...ADP
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