397
FXUS63 KGID 131103
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
603 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DESPITE A GRADUAL EARLY-SPRING "GREEN UP", CONTINUED/LONG-
LASTING VERY DRY CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA/CWA) CONTINUE TO DRIVE HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER IS CLEARLY OUR MAIN ISSUE OVER
THESE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND OUR ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND OUR KS COUNTIES ARE UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- ADDITIONAL, ALMOST DAILY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (TO AT LEAST
NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS) WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND TUESDAY,
WITH THURSDAY LOOKING LIKE OUR NEXT POSSIBLE CRITICAL DAY THAT
MIGHT REQUIRE WARNING ISSUANCE IF TRENDS HOLD.
- OUR NEXT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WED AM (LIKELY ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE). ALTHOUGH WE
ARE NOT CURRENTLY "OUTLOOKED" BY SPC FOR A FORMAL SEVERE
THREAT (PRIMARY THREAT ZONE SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO
OUR EAST), WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS (AT LEAST SPOTTY SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).
- AFTER A DRY STRETCH CENTERED ON WED NIGHT-FRI AM, OUR NEXT
LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON-
SATURDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO MAYBE WATCH OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON (MAIN THREAT
ZONE CURRENTLY PROJECTED BARELY TO OUR SOUTH/EAST), AND WE
MIGHT EVEN CATCH A TOUCH OF LATE-SEASON SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT-
SAT AM AS TEMPS FALL (NOT A "SURE THING" IN ALL MODEL DATA).
- STILL SEVERAL NIGHTS AWAY, BUT WITH THE GROWING SEASON "AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE" DUE TO CONSIDERABLE WARMTH THIS SPRING, SAT
NIGHT-SUN AM MIGHT BE A POSSIBLE CANDIDATE FOR OUR FIRST
FROST ADVISORY AND/OR FREEZE WARNING OF THE SEASON.
- TEMPERATURES BROAD OVERVIEW: THESE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL SURELY
AVERAGE OUT WARMER-THAN-NORMAL, WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS 60S-80S,
AND LOWS MAINLY 40S/50S UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OVERALL-
CHILLIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY, BUT NOT OVERLY-COLD WITH
HIGHS MAINLY 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND ANY
ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (FOR BEYOND TUESDAY):
- HONESTLY, NO TRULY "MAJOR" CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL-THEME OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR ALL "BIG
PICTURE" HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS PLEASE REFER TO KEY MESSAGES
ALREADY OUTLINED ABOVE.
- AS EXPECTED, THE MAJORITY OF "FORECAST FOCUS" THIS SHIFT WAS
ON SHORTER-TERM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH OUR ENTIRE CWA NOW
UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON (DESPITE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS FOR SOME), AND OUR KS ZONES NOW UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON (SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ANY FURTHER DISCUSSION ON THIS
TOPIC).
-- DETAILED FOCUS SOLELY ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS
(THROUGH TUES NIGHT):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
ALTHOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE MIGHT HAVE BARELY BRUSHED OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN CWA EARLIER INT HE NIGHT, AS EXPECTED IT'S BEEN A DRY
NIGHT UNDER A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY THIN HIGH CIRRUS
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT
CONTINUED/PERSISTENT BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. A VERY SUBTLE RIPPLE WORKING THORUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
SPARKED A SMATTERING OF LIGHT SHOWERS/A FEW WEAK STORMS THAT
PASSED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT (OVER NORTHERN
NE).
AT THE SURFACE, ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS SAT NIGHT-SUN AM, IT'S
BEEN ANOTHER NIGHT OF STEADY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES IN
MOST PLACES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT (SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY
10-15 MPH/GUSTS 15-20+ MPH. THAT BEING SAID, WINDS ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR FAR NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL COUNTIES HAVE TURNED QUITE A
BIT LIGHTER IN RECENT HOURS, AS THE RESIDE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED EAST-NORTHEAST FROM A ROUGHLY 1002 MILLIBAR LOW
PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NE (24
HOURS AGO IT APPEARED THIS SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER
NORTH, CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER). OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY'S READINGS...RANGING FROM NEAR-50 WEST, TO UPPER
50S-LOW 60S EAST WHERE BREEZES ARE LITTLE STRONGER/DEWPOINTS A
LITTLE HIGHER.
- TODAY:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY-WARM DAY, WITH ANY
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS (INCLUDING SEVERE) FOCUSING WELL TO OUR
NORTH-NORTHEAST (ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE IA/MN/WI BORDER AREA).
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY JUST ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA WILL GRADUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE NE/IA/SD BORDER AREA BY AROUND
SUNSET. AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH-
THEN-NORTHEAST, BREEZES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY, TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE "TRUE" WESTERLY (AND MAYBE
EVEN A TOUCH NORTHWESTERLY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON). EFFECTIVELY, THIS IS A DRYLINE PUSHING THROUGH, WITH
DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) EXPECTED TO REALLY DROP IN ITS
WAKE, AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO REALLY JUMP. DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD MAINLY THIS MORNING,
INCREASING SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S (MOST OF OUR CWA AIMED 84-89...BUT SHORT OF
APRIL THE RECORDS IN THE LOW 90S AT HASTINGS/GRAND ISLAND). FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA, SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE
10-20 MPH/GUSTS 15-25 MPH, ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SPORADIC GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE A DECENT BET GIVEN DEEP MIXING IN THE WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALL ADS UP TO A DECENT FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST WIND SPEEDS BEING THE MAIN
MITIGATING FACTOR FROM EVEN GREATER CONCERNS.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
WHILE A ROGUE SPRINKLE CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, A DRY
FORECAST OFFICIALLY CONTINUES. AT THE SURFACE, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF OUR CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, ITS
PASSAGE MARKED BY A TURN TO LIGHT-BUT-STEADY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZES. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO VERY NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LOW
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING'S LOWS, WITH MOST PLACES BOTTOMING OUT MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.
- TUESDAY DAYTIME:
AS OUR FIRST LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OF THE WEEK (THE FIRST OF
TWO) APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES, THE MAIN FEATURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE A GRADUALLY-STRENGHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO THE NE/KS/CO BORDER AREA TO OUR WEST BY LATE IN
THE DAY. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS, IT WILL LIKELY "TIGHTEN UP"
THE AFOREMENTIONED, GENERALLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER TO START THE DAY, BUT IF ANYTHING PERHAPS
CAUSE IT TO LIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. WITH THE EXACT POSITION OF
THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THERE IS
SOME MODEST UNCERTAINTY IN VARIOUS ELEMENTS, INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES, WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS AND HOW FAR NORTH A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT MIGHT EXIST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS
WILL SURELY BE MORE EASTERLY, WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR KS ZONES), A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
PREVAIL (GUSTS AT LEAST 25-35 MPH). WE MAY BE AIMING TOO WARM
NORTH OF I-80 AND PERHAPS NOT WARM ENOUGH INTO KS, BUT FOR NOW
HIGH TEMPS ARE AIMED FROM MID-UPPER 70S NORTH, TO MID-UPPER 80S
IN KS. PRECIP-WISE, WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL SURELY BE DRY, WE
BRING SOME SMALL RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO MAINLY OUR
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
THIS FORECASTER'S MAIN CONCERN IS THAT WE MIGHT HAVE A "SNEAKY"
THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (DESPITE NOT BEING "OUTLOOKED" BY SPC ON THE
INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK). WHILE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL SURELY
FOCUS TO OUR EAST (EASTERN KS UP INTO IA), ESPECIALLY THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG OF MAINLY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (CAPE) COULD MATERIALIZE, WITH LIFT/FORCING
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST...REACHING OUR WESTERN CWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
TO BE FAIR, OTHER MODELS (INCLUDING RAP/HRRR) ARE LESS GENEROUS
WITH ELEVATED CAPE (EXCEPT MAYBE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA), BUT
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM HIGHER-RES MODELS CERTAINLY POINT TO
A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION (NOT A
WIDESPREAD SOAKER, UNFORTUNATELY), WITH AT LEAST SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORM THREAT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS,
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST, SWINGING BREEZES AROUND TO MORE NORTHERLY-
TO-WESTERLY ESPECIALLY BY NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY (OUR
FORECAST SPEEDS MAY NOT YET BE HIGH ENOUGH). LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED
SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT (MAINLY MID-UPPER 40S WITH LOW-MID 50S
FAR EAST).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON:
THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING, A FEW NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MAY STILL SEE SOME RESIDUAL 25-30MPH WIND GUSTS. WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY, RH VALUES HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS 15-20% FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE SET UP ACROSS NEBRASKA AREAS
NORTH OF I-80 INCLUDING PORTIONS NEBRASKA WEST OF HWY-183. THE
SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS ACROSS VALLEY AND GREELEY COUNTIES
(OCCASIONALLY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH) WILL MEET CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. AS RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7PM TONIGHT FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
MONDAY:
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AS DEWPOINTS
FALL TO THE 20S AND 30S. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WILL BRING RH VALUES DOWN TO AS LOW AS 10-20%
AREAWIDE. RETURNING SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BLOW
STRONGER THAN TODAY (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-30MPH). AS RESULT,
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AREA
WIDE. THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS (STRONGEST WIND WINDS GUSTS) WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. AS RESULT, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH BETWEEN 12PM AND 9PM WAS ISSUED THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO
INCLUDE ALL OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY TO
MERRICK COUNTIES. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE EVENING SHIFT TODAY WILL LOOK
TO UPGRADE THE WATCH IF NOT JUST A PORTION OF THE AREA OVER TO A RED
FLAG WARNING LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
TUESDAY:
THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY (UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S), DEWPOINTS SHOULD RETAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THUS
AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO STILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS 15-
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND BELOW 30% ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL DETERMINE IF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET CROSS A FEW PLACES WILL
BE THE WINDS. CURRENTLY, SOUTH TO EASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ARE FAVORED TO GUST AS HIGH AS 15-30MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
CONCENTRATED ALONG AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SEEM LOCKED IN,
THOUGH ONLY A FEW NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A FEW FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AREAS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ACTUALLY OBSERVE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAY BE CONSIDERED (NOT GUARANTEED) EITHER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY & BEYOND:
COOLER TEMPERATURES (BESIDES THURSDAY) MAY KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW
SCATTERED AREAS OF NEAR-CRITICAL CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE EACH DAY.
THE NEXT AND BEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
BEING MET WILL BE THURSDAY AS HIGHS BRIEFLY CLIMB BACK UP TO THE
80S. THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONDITIONS AT
FIRST GLANCE, A FEW FORECAST ELEMENTS MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN THAT COULD IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
-- NOTE:
- NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE
OVERLAP OF BOTH 20-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS
OF 20+ MPH/25+ MPH (FOR 3+ HOUR DURATION).
- NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE
OVERLAP OF BOTH 25-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS
15+MPH/20+ MPH
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD (ALTHOUGH MIGHT HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MAINLY KGRI TOWARD
THE EXTREME END AROUND 12Z TUESDAY FOR A POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD DECK
SLIPPING IN FROM THE NORTH). OVERALL THOUGH, SIMPLY VARYING
AMOUNTS OF PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, AND HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPIATION-FREE WEATHER.
AS FOR WINDS, THERE WILL BE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHIFTS...STARTING
OUT SOUTHERLY RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING...THEN MORE WESTERLY BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND A PASSING/WEAK COLD FRONT. THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD, SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE UNDER 12KT.
HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY-BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY
19-00Z...DURING WHICH TIME SUSTAINED WESTERLY SPEEDS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR 15KT WITH GUSTS 20+KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
- THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO NOW INCLUDE OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA (CWA), VALID FROM 12-9 PM. ADMITTEDLY, AT LEAST
PARTS OF THIS WARNING ARE A LITTLE MARGINAL REGARDING WIND
SPEEDS (VERSUS CRITERIA), AS SOME AREAS WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO REALIZE A 3+ HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS CONSISTENTLY 25+ MPH OUT
OF THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. THAT BEING SAID, AT THE VERY
LEAST, ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE NEAR-CRITICAL GUSTS REACH AT LEAST
20+ MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING, AND ESPECIALLY
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 MPH FOR AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS. TURNING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH), CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH THAT ALL BUT PERHAPS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST FRINGES OF OUR
CWA WILL SEE VALUES BOTTOM OUT AS LOW AS 10-20 PERCENT (SOLIDLY
MEETING CRITICAL CRITERIA), AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR
INTO THE MID- UPPER 80S. AS A RESULT, AND DESPITE THE MARGINAL
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED IN SOME PLACES, IT WAS DECIDED TO "ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION" AND EXPAND THIS WARNING TO INCLUDE OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...INSTEAD OF "SPLITTING HAIRS" AND LEAVING
OUT A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES THAT MIGHT FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT OF
CONSISTENT 25+ MPH GUSTS. NO MATTER HOW STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS
END UP BEING, THEY SHOULD DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET,
AND ADMITTEDLY THE 9 PM "END TIME" TO THIS WARNING IS PROBABLY
A BIT GENEROUS.
- TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED (ALSO VALID 12-9 PM), BUT
AT LEAST FOR NOW, ONLY FOR OUR 6 KS COUNTIES, AS THAT IS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN POTENTIALLY MEETING CRITICAL CRITERIA
FOR 3+ HOURS. THE MAIN REASON THAT THIS WATCH DOES NOT CURRENTLY
EXTEND NORTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER IS BECAUSE A FAIRLY SHARP,
GENERALLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHER RH AND LIGHTER (GENERALLY EASTERLY) WINDS PRESENT NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY (INCLUDING
MAINLY OUR KS COUNTIES), STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-25 MPH/GUST AT LEAST 25-35 MPH. DUE TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEASONABLY-WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE MID-UPPER 80S, RH SHOULD EASILY FALL TO AT LEAST 15-20%
NEAR/ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. SHOULD LATER FORECASTS
DEPICT THIS FRONT LIFTING FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA,
A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF LATER WATCHES/POSSIBLE WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. HOWEVER, FOR NOW FELT
COMFORTABLE CONFINING THE WATCH TO ONLY OUR NORTHERN KS ZONES.
- WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY:
WILL FOREGO ANY DETAILED BREAKDOWN AT THIS TIME RANGE FOR NOW,
BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT EACH AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO FEATURE AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST SMALL
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, WITH A FEW AFTERNOONS FORECAST TO BREACH
OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN AT LEAST LIMITED AREAS. AT LEAST
FOR NOW, THE NEXT DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR POTENTIALLY THE
MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS THURSDAY, AS
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP (GUSTS AT LEAST 25 MPH LIKELY) IN THE
PRESENCE OF MORE SEASONABLY-WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW-
MID 80S...DRIVING RH DOWN INTO THE 10-20% RANGE ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
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