764
FXUS63 KGID 131810
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
110 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER IS A PRIMARY HAZARD TO FOCUS ON THIS AFTERNOON,
AND POTENTIALLY TOMORROW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO BE WARM, DRY, AND WINDY, AND COULD BE ANOTHER DAY
FOR FIRE CONCERNS.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY EVENING
(20-50% WITH BEST CHANCES FAR SOUTHEAST AND FAR NORTHWEST),
BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINS DRY, AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
- THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
STORM WITH SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT
MOST LIKELY STORM TRACK SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EAST OF HWY 281, AND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IS NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A DISCUSSION ON FIRE-WEATHER-SPECIFIC INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR KEARNEY AT MID DAY WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEAST TOWARD ALBION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM AND DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. WE MOST LIKELY
SHOULD STAY PRECIPITATION FREE, BUT THERE'S ABOUT A 10% CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 5 PM, AND A BETTER CHANCE FARTHER NORTH.
AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, COOLER AND MOISTURE AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
INTO MANY OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES WHILE NEW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN NORTHWEST KS. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KS/NE BORDER AND HANG OUT IN THAT AREA ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT A GOOD POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN WARM
AND IN A DRY AIRMASS. WHILE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG CAP
IN PLACE AND SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS WE GET A
BIT DEEPER INTO THE EVENING, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO
PROVIDE A SEMI-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR BREAKING THE CAP, BUT
WOULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND POOLING THROUGH
A PRETTY GOOD DEPTH AND INTO THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. AS OF NOW,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, AND IF IT DOES HAPPEN WOULD STAND A BETTER CHANCE
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. FARTHER NORTH, CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH WEAKER CAP AND STRONGER FORCING, THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AND SKIRT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT TRUTHFULLY THAT
PRECIP POTENTIAL IS GREATER FARTHER TO THE NORTH. A FEW
WRAPAROUND SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY RAINY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NE OR NORTH
CENTRAL KS.
AFTER A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON THURSDAY, THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING FROM COLORADO ACROSS KS/NE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS HAS THE LOOK (AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE) OF A CLASSIC
SPRING SYSTEM WITH THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW, SNOW ON THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT, AND PLENTY OF WIND FOR EVERYONE. ANY SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON TIMING OF THE
STORM SYSTEM, AND CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, SO
WE'LL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND PULL
BETTER MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST. THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE STORM TRACK, AND RIGHT NOW THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. WHERE IT DOES SNOW, IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS, AND SO THIS TOO IS WORTH VERY CLOSELY MONITORING AS IT
COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS SYSTEM, SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH CALMER WEATHER OVERALL...AT
LEAST INTO THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
TAFS ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS AND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT LOW CEILINGS OR EVEN FOG COULD DEVELOP INTO GRI OR PERHAPS
EVEN EAR BETWEEN 10Z-13Z, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
TODAY:
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM NEAR KEARNEY TO NEAR COLUMBUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PULL A NARROW SECTOR OF WARM AND VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM, WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH, AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH. ALSO EXPECT THE WIND
DIRECTION TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...NO SHARP WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED BUT MORE OF A
GRADUAL CHANGE. NEAR SUNSET, THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD COME TO AN
END WITH RH SLOWLY RECOVERING INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN MOST NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS A
FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH IN KANSAS COUNTIES. RH WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RH
ABOVE 80% NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY:
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY, A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
NORTON TO NEAR HEBRON, GIVE OR TAKE 30 MILES OR SO. NORTH OF
THAT FRONT, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND GUSTY AT
TIMES, WITH RH STARTING THE DAY AROUND 90% AND REACHING AN
AFTERNOON MINIMUM AROUND 40%. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH SOUTHWEST OR WESTERLY WINDS. MINRH IN
THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE 12-16% RANGE, AND WHILE WINDS MAY
GUST 20-25 MPH, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE, AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON
WIND SPEEDS, WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR KS
COUNTIES AS IT STANDS, WITH INTENT TO MAKE A WARN/NO-WARN
DECISION LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY:
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER RED FLAG SETUP. FRIDAY
COULD ALSO FEATURE A DRYLINE SCENARIO WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH
IN PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST, AND FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH FAR FROM A GUARANTEE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH (OAX)
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH (OAX)
FIRE WEATHER...BARJENBRUCH (OAX)
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